Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018
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Author Topic: Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018  (Read 82510 times)
Santander
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« Reply #550 on: October 30, 2018, 06:06:01 PM »

According to sources, Bibi Netanyahu will attend Bolsonaro's inauguration. He'll be the first Israeli Prime Minister ever to visit Brazil.

Terrific.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #551 on: October 30, 2018, 06:59:14 PM »

Why have the PT collapsed so much in the ABC region around Sao Paulo?

They have been weakened a bit there by structural economic changes (less employment in heavy industry) but the main issue is simply that they have collapsed across urban Brazil as 'caste' lines have become more important than class ones.
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Hydera
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« Reply #552 on: October 30, 2018, 07:06:23 PM »

https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2018/10/29/actualidad/1540828734_083649.html


If anybody wants to make more observations theres a interactive map of Brazil on the Municipal level that is scroll able.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #553 on: October 30, 2018, 09:24:57 PM »

Why have the PT collapsed so much in the ABC region around Sao Paulo?

They have been weakened a bit there by structural economic changes (less employment in heavy industry) but the main issue is simply that they have collapsed across urban Brazil as 'caste' lines have become more important than class ones.

More than that, I'd say 24 years of strong PSDB administrations in São Paulo slowly moved the greater São Paulo area from the center-left to the center-right. Deindustrialization was also a factor, just like the decadence of the trade union movement, but the area transitioned quite well to a tertiary sector-based economy, where many blue collar, low education, working class workers are now white collar, College graduated middle class workers, so it's not like the old "red belt" around São Paulo is now some sort of a rust belt. In fact, it's quite the opposite, as São Paulo got too overcrowded and expansive, many middle class people now prefer to live in cities like Santo André, São Bernardo do Campo and Taboão da Serra, where their money is worth way more than in central middle class areas in São Paulo. Finally, it's important to notice that PT ran quite a few awful and corrupt administrations on the greater São Paulo area, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that their brand is now toxic in these areas.

It's curious, however, that even if the PT were to recover a bit on the greater São Paulo area, still it wouldn't get them anywhere close to make them competitive in the state of São Paulo, because areas like the greater Campinas area, the greater Santos area, the greater Ribeirão Preto, among others, which are the ones growing faster nowadays, never really liked the PT and now just can't stop trending away from the PT. The state of São Paulo has long conservative roots (ever since the beginning of the 20th Century we've been to the right of the rest of the country), and they are as solid as they have ever been, as this election proved.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #554 on: October 31, 2018, 12:03:37 AM »

Can someone explain Acre's politics to me?
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #555 on: October 31, 2018, 07:31:00 AM »

Can someone explain Acre's politics to me?

20 years of PT rule (the last ones very corrupt and inept) (1) + home state of Marina Silva (who's now quite unpopular in her own turf) (2) + huge number of evangelicals (around 40% of its population) (3) + border state (urban violence/international drug trafficking are huge issues in places like Acre) (4) + long tradition of isolation from Brasília (low population + distance from Brasília) (5) + quick agricultural development over the last few years (6) + most of the people in the state are middle class workers who live in Rio Branco (7). Now that's why Bolsonaro carried Acre with nearly 80% of it's vote.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #556 on: October 31, 2018, 01:53:08 PM »

Has Roraima always been right wing or is it because of it bordering Venezuela?
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #557 on: October 31, 2018, 04:25:56 PM »

Has Roraima always been right wing or is it because of it bordering Venezuela?

Venezuelan immigrants made Roraima trend further to the right (there's a big immigration crisis going on there), but it was always a right wing state. Boa Vista has almost all the votes of the state and it's basically a city of low middle class people and government bureaucrats.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #558 on: October 31, 2018, 09:43:06 PM »

What's the demographic difference between PT supports and 2018 PDT supporters?
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #559 on: October 31, 2018, 10:20:04 PM »

What's the demographic difference between PT supports and 2018 PDT supporters?

1st round Haddad voters: low education, low income people from small cities, most of them in Northeastern Brazil, most of them 40+ years old.

Gomes voters: center-left-leaning, high education, high income people from large cities all around the Country, many of them 25 years old or less + Ceará voters. Most of them voted for Haddad in the runoff, about 20% of them nullified their votes and about 10% of them voted for Bolsonaro in the runoff.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #560 on: November 01, 2018, 05:59:16 AM »

Bolsonaro looks and talks exactly like one of those guys that will be exposed by a newspaper in let's say 3 years, as he's exiting a gay nightclub at 3am ...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #561 on: November 01, 2018, 07:38:15 AM »

Bolsonaro looks and talks exactly like one of those guys that will be exposed by a newspaper in let's say 3 years, as he's exiting a gay nightclub at 3am ...

Are you saying that he reminds you of a specific individual in particular? Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #562 on: November 01, 2018, 07:43:53 AM »

Bolsonaro looks and talks exactly like one of those guys that will be exposed by a newspaper in let's say 3 years, as he's exiting a gay nightclub at 3am ...

Are you saying that he reminds you of a specific individual in particular? Tongue

Jörg Haider comes to mind ... (but I'm sure you know that).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #563 on: November 01, 2018, 08:59:18 AM »

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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #564 on: November 01, 2018, 01:36:55 PM »

Bolsonaro's cabinet so far:

President: Captain Jair Bolsonaro (PSL/RJ)
Vice-President: General Hamilton Mourão (PRTB/DF)

Chief of Staff: Congressman Onyx Lorenzoni (DEM/RS)
Minister of the Economy (Finances, Budget, Industry and Development): Paulo Guedes (Ind/RJ)
Minister of Defense: General Augusto Heleno (PRP/DF)
Minister of Justice and Public Security: Federal Judge Sergio Moro (Ind/PR)
Minister of Science and Technology: Lieutenant-Colonel Marcos Pontes (PSL/SP)
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Dereich
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« Reply #565 on: November 01, 2018, 02:07:05 PM »

Bolsonaro's cabinet so far:

President: Captain Jair Bolsonaro (PSL/RJ)
Vice-President: General Hamilton Mourão (PRTB/DF)

Chief of Staff: Congressman Onyx Lorenzoni (DEM/RS)
Minister of the Economy (Finances, Budget, Industry and Development): Paulo Guedes (Ind/RJ)
Minister of Defense: General Augusto Heleno (PRP/DF)
Minister of Justice and Public Security: Federal Judge Sergio Moro (Ind/PR)
Minister of Science and Technology: Lieutenant-Colonel Marcos Pontes (PSL/SP)

Wait, what? THAT Sergio Moro? The man responsible for leading the corruption investigation against  Bolsonaro's main rival for the presidency and placing him in jail was immediately made a cabinet minister? I had always assumed the Car Wash investigation was supposed to be non-partisan, but this would seem to belie that. At very least it doesn't look good for Moro personally.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #566 on: November 02, 2018, 11:30:31 AM »

  One further impact of Bolsonaro's victory might be that various international right wing figures will have an excuse to visit Brazil for fact finding junkets.
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Zuza
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« Reply #567 on: November 03, 2018, 09:53:57 PM »

Most of them voted for Haddad in the runoff, about 20% of them nullified their votes and about 10% of them voted for Bolsonaro in the runoff.

Is there any statistics?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #568 on: November 09, 2018, 10:27:04 AM »



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Colbert
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« Reply #569 on: December 10, 2020, 09:08:19 PM »

please, can somebody explain me why vote fore brazilian senate explode in 2018 ?

I thought first it was a particularity of brazilian senate, so, I expected to find the same weird numbers in 2014, but no. 2014 senate vote was normal.

Those numbers came from the very official TSE.

Is it possible than it is a human error, thus, every people giving numbers about brazil's 2018 senate election use the same wrong source ?

Or is there a new electoral law just put in place for this 2018 senate election ?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #570 on: December 10, 2020, 09:23:16 PM »

please, can somebody explain me why vote fore brazilian senate explode in 2018 ?

I thought first it was a particularity of brazilian senate, so, I expected to find the same weird numbers in 2014, but no. 2014 senate vote was normal.

Those numbers came from the very official TSE.

Is it possible than it is a human error, thus, every people giving numbers about brazil's 2018 senate election use the same wrong source ?

Or is there a new electoral law just put in place for this 2018 senate election ?

Every state has 3 seats, 1 was up in 2014, 2 in 2018.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #571 on: December 11, 2020, 01:07:16 AM »

please, can somebody explain me why vote fore brazilian senate explode in 2018 ?

I thought first it was a particularity of brazilian senate, so, I expected to find the same weird numbers in 2014, but no. 2014 senate vote was normal.

Those numbers came from the very official TSE.

Is it possible than it is a human error, thus, every people giving numbers about brazil's 2018 senate election use the same wrong source ?

Or is there a new electoral law just put in place for this 2018 senate election ?

Every state has 3 seats, 1 was up in 2014, 2 in 2018.

Yup, and each senator term lasts 8 years.

2014 renovated 1/3 of the senate, in 2018 people had to vote for two candidates in each state to renovate the other 2/3.

In 2022 the votes will naturally fall to half of 2018 since they will pick only one senator.
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