The Delegate Fight: 2020

[2016]

Feel free to update as the Primary Season rolls on

AP

Biden 610
Sanders 541

with Update March 5

The Green Papers

Biden 665
Sanders 594

with Update March 5

NBC

Biden 565
Sanders 506

CNN

Biden 531
Sanders 468

with Update March 5

ABC

Biden 526 + 112 Super
Sanders 463 + 24 Super

with Update March 5

CBS

Biden 601
Sanders 521

with Update March 5

[2016]

Some Updates:

Green Papers changed their Pledged Delegate Count from 656-584 Biden to 665 (+ 9) - 594 (+10)

CNN changed from 509-449 to 531 (+22)- 468 (+19).

[2016]

The AP has updated their Delegate Count AGAIN:

Biden 627
Sanders 551
Warren 64
Bloomberg 60
Buttigieg 26
Klobuchar 7
Gabbard 2

Here is what we know:
112 Delegates left to be allocated in CA
13 Delegates left to be allocated in UT
28 Delegates left in CO
2 Delegates left in TN
4 Delegates left in NC

159 in Total (mostly in Sanders States)

Green Papers updated as well
Biden 671
Sanders 599
Warren 70
Bloomberg 67
Buttigieg 27
Klobuchar 7
Gabbard 2

For comparison Clintons lead over Sanders was over 100 after Super Tuesday '16.

[Erc]

(Thanks for the sticky, mods!)

It appears the DNC is taking a harder line this year as to what constitutes someone being "no longer a candidate" for the purposes of allocating At-Large and PLEO delegates.

Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg have suspended their campaigns and endorsed Biden.  (Buttigieg and Klobuchar even went as far as withdrawing from the Colorado ballot at the last second).  The DNC seems to be taking the line that this means they are no longer a candidate: they can't pull their campaign out of suspension at the convention without walking back their endorsement.

Warren has suspended, but has not endorsed another candidate.  It's unclear what the interpretation is going to be here; in 2008, Edwards suspended but got to keep his delegates (he didn't endorse Obama until May 14).  One state party has weighed in on this question; Colorado, in its preliminary delegate counts, have excluded both Bloomberg and Warren from their At-Large and PLEO counts.

As a result, I'll be reallocating almost* all of Buttigieg's, Klobuchar's, Bloomberg's, and Warren's At-Large and PLEO delegates between Biden and Sanders as if the dropouts hadn't hit the threshold in the first place.  On net, this seems to help Sanders by about 6 delegates.  If Colorado's the only indication about Warren, I may give her her delegates back if she doesn't endorse.

*The one exception here is American Samoa, where the delegates have already been chosen, so Bloomberg has his 4 (or 5, depending on who you talk to) locked in.

California and Utah remain open questions; don't hold your breath.  In the interim, I'll be using the Green Papers figures but reallocating Bloomberg/Warren At-Large delegates in Utah.

[Erc]

One side benefit of Buttigieg's At-Large and PLEO delegates getting reallocated: it no longer matters who won Iowa for delegate purposes.  One credentials fight averted.

[GeneralMacArthur]

For comparison Clintons lead over Sanders was over 100 after Super Tuesday '16.

Super Tuesday '16 didn't have California though.  Biden is running ahead of Clinton.

[Erc]

The American Samoa problem has apparently been resolved.  Still not entirely sure what happened the day of, but apparently the DNC intervened and the American Samoa Democratic Party has clarified that Bloomberg will be getting 4 delegates and Gabbard 2, as the results suggest.

Still not sure what happened/is happening on the delegate *selection* side of things, which is important as those 4 Bloomberg delegates are now free agents.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's clear Bloomberg cost Bernie NC, OK, TX and delegates in Cali and Warren cost Bernie in MA, MN and ME, and Bloomberg didn't hold down Biden's leads in Southern primaries. Biden's going to Black Churches and getting Pastors to endorse him, was the reason for the smashing victories in South

[ProudModerate2]

538 finally updated their "Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary" page with the new Super Tuesday results/data, and their numbers are HUGE for Biden taking the nomination (with no contested convention).

Check it out here ...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[2016]

I am not buying Models. I'm looking at hard Numbers preferably from the Green Papers Website and they have

Biden 677
Sanders 604
Bloomberg 73
Warren 64
Buttigieg 27
Klobuchar 7
Gabbard 2

The 538 Model assumes Biden winning every Midwestern State like MI, WI, OH by a 60-40 and that's totally ridiculous.

[Tender Branson]

If we assign the ButtiKlobuberg delegates to Biden, his lead over Bernie is over 150 already.

Biden will also get 90% of the 775 or so superdelegates, netting another 600 delegates there.

So, his real delegate lead over Sanders is about 750 right now already ...

[brucejoel99]

Biden will also get 90% of the 775 or so superdelegates, netting another 600 delegates there.

So, his real delegate lead over Sanders is about 750 right now already ...

Not how it works anymore.

[Tender Branson]

Biden will also get 90% of the 775 or so superdelegates, netting another 600 delegates there.

So, his real delegate lead over Sanders is about 750 right now already ...

Not how it works anymore.

How does it work now ?

[brucejoel99]

Biden will also get 90% of the 775 or so superdelegates, netting another 600 delegates there.

So, his real delegate lead over Sanders is about 750 right now already ...

Not how it works anymore.

How does it work now ?

Superdelegates no longer have the right to cast decisive votes on the first ballot. They'll only be allowed to cast non-decisive votes on the first ballot if a candidate has received a majority of all delegates as a result of the primaries & caucuses (i.e. 2,376 pledged delegates going into the convention), or decisive votes on subsequent ballots in a contested convention (which is no longer happening due to the events of this past week).

[Fuzzy Bear]

The candidates are arguing about delegates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is no realistic scenario outside OH, FL and deep South that Bernie can win

[indietraveler]

In a 50/50 race Biden comes close to clinching the nomination with the remaining contests (I excluded unallocated delegates where contests have already taken place). Current polling seems to suggest Biden has well over 50% in a lot of the upcoming states. Unless I really botched my math and barring any huge Sanders upsets to change the overall narrative, Biden should easily get the majority of delegates if things stay constant? Even if Sanders stays until the end?

[brucejoel99]

In a 50/50 race Biden comes close to clinching the nomination with the remaining contests (I excluded unallocated delegates where contests have already taken place). Current polling seems to suggest Biden has well over 50% in a lot of the upcoming states. Unless I really botched my math and barring any huge Sanders upsets to change the overall narrative, Biden should easily get the majority of delegates if things stay constant?

Yes.

Even if Sanders stays until the end?

Yes.

[Sorenroy]

I made a similar post on the 538 model thread, but they probably work better here. Below is a chart of the percent of remaining delegates each candidate must get to gain a majority going into the convention:


Percent Needed:
Biden — 51.77%
Sanders — 55.12%

For the various dropped candidates, their required percentage ranges from 77.22% in the case of Warren to 80.28% for anyone who has yet to gain delegates. I used the Green Papers for states that were fully allocated and 538 for states that needed projections from Tuesday.

[Erc]

The Green papers have Biden netting:

21 out of Michigan (with good CD breakdowns)
32 out of MS (CD breakdowns less certain, but Sanders falling below viability statewide there!)
20 out of MO (CD breakdowns uncertain)
ID and ND roughly cancel each other out.
WA is vote by mail, so we may have to wait a while.

That pretty much seals the deal for Biden, as he takes a majority of pledged delegates nationwide.

Unless Sanders can pull off a miracle in the next debate and recover in next Tuesday's contests (AZ/FL/IL/OH), this is over, even if Sanders drags this out until June.

[2016]

According to the "Green Papers" Biden has eclipsed 900 Delegates

Current Delegate Total:
Biden 900
Sanders 736
Warren 79
Bloomberg 53
Buttigieg 26
Klobuchar 7
Gabbard 2

Biden is now at 45,20 % of Delegates Nationwide.

[brucejoel99]

It seems highly unlikely that the DNC would actually follow through on this, though the easy way out (claiming that the Republicans did it against their will) isn't available as JBE was the one who postponed the primary.  A rules change seems highly likely.

Yeah, considering how both the Republican Secretary of State & Democratic Governor (JBE) signed off on this, I would imagine that their hope is (& for all we know, perhaps JBE already received assurances from Perez & co. behind-the-scenes) that the DNC will modify their rules.

[Erc]

Sanders wins the Northern Marianas Caucuses 84-48, picking up 4 delegates to Biden's 2.

[Hammy]

Biden will also get 90% of the 775 or so superdelegates, netting another 600 delegates there.

So, his real delegate lead over Sanders is about 750 right now already ...

Not how it works anymore.

How does it work now ?

Superdelegates no longer have the right to cast decisive votes on the first ballot. They'll only be allowed to cast non-decisive votes on the first ballot if a candidate has received a majority of all delegates as a result of the primaries & caucuses (i.e. 2,376 pledged delegates going into the convention), or decisive votes on subsequent ballots in a contested convention (which is no longer happening due to the events of this past week).

So if somebody goes into the convention with a simple majority of pledged delegates on the first ballet, they're the nominee and there's no superdelegates in the equation?

[brucejoel99]

Biden will also get 90% of the 775 or so superdelegates, netting another 600 delegates there.

So, his real delegate lead over Sanders is about 750 right now already ...

Not how it works anymore.

How does it work now ?

Superdelegates no longer have the right to cast decisive votes on the first ballot. They'll only be allowed to cast non-decisive votes on the first ballot if a candidate has received a majority of all delegates as a result of the primaries & caucuses (i.e. 2,376 pledged delegates going into the convention), or decisive votes on subsequent ballots in a contested convention (which is no longer happening due to the events of this past week).

So if somebody goes into the convention with a simple majority of pledged delegates on the first ballet, they're the nominee and there's no superdelegates in the equation?

Correct, yes.