The Delegate Fight: 2020
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Erc
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« Reply #25 on: February 05, 2020, 07:37:51 AM »
« edited: February 05, 2020, 08:18:12 AM by Erc »

Delegate projection updates from the dump that occurred last night (2/4):

Biden's lead over Warren for third place in CD 1 holds, but has narrowed to 0.2%.

Biden's share in CD3 has dropped to 15.4%.

Biden's statewide share has dropped to 15.5%; he still has viability, but that's enough to (barely) swing a delegate to Sanders.

Warren's share in CD4 is now at 14.91%; my projections show her getting to 14.98%, so this is going to remain super tight.

Updated delegate counts if these were to be the final results:

Buttigieg 14
Sanders 12
Warren 8
Biden 6
Klobuchar 1

I had screwed up the counting a bit on Biden's delegates, so the conservative count is now

Buttigieg 13
Sanders 11
Warren 8
Biden 2
Klobuchar 1
Too Close to Call 6
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: February 05, 2020, 07:37:58 PM »

Delegate updates with 86% reporting:

Biden has expanded his lead over Warren in CD 1 to 0.5%.

Biden is dropping dangerously close to unviability in CD 3, now at 15.2%; Sanders would pick up his delegate here.

Overall, Biden is improving, however, and is now up to 15.93%. This means he takes the delegate back from Sanders that he lost with last night's results. The effective margin here is around 2.3 SDEs (0.1% of the vote), so it could very easily flip again.

Warren is slipping further away from viability in CD 4, now at 14.4%. My (dumb) projections have her getting up to 14.91%, so it is definitely possible she claws her way back up.

This puts us back at:

Buttigieg 14
Sanders 11
Warren 8
Biden 7
Klobuchar 1

The more conservative count has not changed:

Buttigieg 13
Sanders 11
Warren 8
Biden 2
Klobuchar 1
Too Close To Call 6
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: February 05, 2020, 11:36:44 PM »

Latest results have flipped that CD3 delegate back to Sanders, likely for good.

We now await the CD1 & CD3 satellite caucus results.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: February 06, 2020, 07:51:37 AM »

CD 3 Satellite Caucus results make winning overall a distinct possibility for Sanders.

If he replicates his CD 4 satellite caucus results in CD 1, my dumb projections have him winning by a grand total of 0.26 SDEs. That's at a scale where the obvious mistakes in the reporting come into play, so this is going to take some time.

Generally speaking, delegate watch time:

Biden's lead over Warren in CD1 is up to 5.5 SDEs; with only 9.2 SDEs (plus the satellites) outstanding, this delegate seems safe to call for Biden. Sanders could win the district overall if satellites are in his favor, but it doesn't matter for delegate purposes.
CD 1: Buttigieg 2 - Sanders 2 - Warren 1 - Biden 2 seems pretty set.

CD 2: Buttigeg 2 - Sanders 3 - Warren 2 seems pretty set; ; 10 SDEs left here (not zero as I claimed earlier, dumb math error on my part), but this result is set.

CD 3: Biden's at 15.39%, and won't fall under viability even if he doesn't get anything at all out of the remaining SDEs.
CD 3: Buttigieg 3 - Sanders 2 - Warren 2 - Biden 1 seems pretty set, with only 14.7 SDEs left here.

CD 4: Warren's now at 14.6%, and would need to pull 28% of the remaining 11.4 SDEs to get to viability. Klobuchar, at 16.2%, seems pretty secure.
CD4: Buttigieg 2 - Sanders 1 - Biden 1 - Klobuchar 1

The Biden-Sanders tossup At-Large delegate is now pretty securely in the Sanders camp. Biden's, at 15.8%, is also pretty securely above viability at this point.
The overall winner will decide 1 PLEO At-Large delegate.
At-Large: Buttigieg 3 - Sanders 3 - Warren 2 - Biden 1 seems pretty set
PLEO At-Large: Buttigieg 1 - Sanders 1 - Warren 1 - Biden 1 - Overall Winner 1


Totals:
Buttigieg 13 - Sanders 12 - Warren 8 - Biden 6 - Klobuchar 1 - Overall Winner 1
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bilaps
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« Reply #29 on: February 06, 2020, 08:23:55 AM »

So Bernie could win popular vote by more than 3%, he could end up in SDE-s losing by like 2 and Buttigieg would out of all that net 2 more delegates. Jesus Christ.
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Ljube
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« Reply #30 on: February 06, 2020, 09:14:15 AM »

So Bernie could win popular vote by more than 3%, he could end up in SDE-s losing by like 2 and Buttigieg would out of all that net 2 more delegates. Jesus Christ.

The flaws of the proportional system.
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Erc
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« Reply #31 on: February 06, 2020, 10:02:05 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2020, 10:06:07 PM by Erc »

The results, such as they are, are essentially in.  There are a bunch of obvious errors throughout:

- Some counties awarded more SDEs than they were entitled to.
- The Iowa party is handling satellite caucuses incorrectly (giving Sanders 3 more SDEs than he should have)
- Miscellaneous tabulation and math errors.

We'll see how these errors shake out, but a Buttigieg win seems quite likely, with corresponding delegate totals:

Buttigieg 14
Sanders 12
Warren 8
Biden 6
Klobuchar 1

Iowa shoulda gotten rid of SDEs when they had the chance.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #32 on: February 06, 2020, 11:33:42 PM »

I blame this on Iowa gerrymandering.
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Erc
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« Reply #33 on: February 08, 2020, 08:33:22 AM »

After a deep dive into the math errors (which hurt Sanders quite a deal), I'm just going to say it's a complete mess.  Unless Sanders (or Buttigieg) explicitly gives up on that last delegate out of Iowa, I'm just not going to award it, as it's likely to come down to a credentials fight (or possibly even some unexpected drama at the Iowa state convention on June 13).
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Erc
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« Reply #34 on: February 11, 2020, 09:10:00 PM »

Barring Klobuchar passing Pete in either CD or statewide, the delegate count tonight looks pretty secure at

Sanders 9
Buttigieg 9
Klobuchar 6

Klobuchar passes Biden in overall national delegates.
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Erc
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« Reply #35 on: February 19, 2020, 11:29:40 PM »

Recanvass in Iowa makes the margin much tighter (0.08 SDEs), but there are still outstanding errors:

Basic rounding or denial-of-viability errors in 21 precincts, of which 11 would affect the Buttigieg-Sanders margin.  Most of these errors were in Sanders' favor, so Buttigieg would expand his margin further if they were fixed.  (As fixing some of these errors would require coinflips, this isn't guaranteed; there's around a 5% chance that Sanders would come out on top from fixing them).

At least one precinct is missing from the results entirely, and some precincts report too many or too few SDEs.

The error regarding the allocating of SDEs from satellite caucuses remains, and Buttigieg would net a handful of SDEs if that error were to be fixed.

If it were just these errors, Buttigieg would almost certainly come out on top, but A) there's no guarantee these errors are rectified and B) who knows what the upcoming recounts will reveal.

As such, I am still not calling that last delegate in Iowa.
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Erc
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« Reply #36 on: February 22, 2020, 08:32:52 AM »

What Could Go Wrong in Nevada?

The question on everyone's mind today.

How the caucuses should work

Caucusgoers show up and register between 10 AM and noon PST (1-3 PM EST).  Prospective caucusgoers will have their names checked on the voter rolls to make sure they are registered to vote in the precinct; it will also presumably be checked that they did not vote early.

At 12:30 the caucus will be called to order.  By 1PM, the total number of effective attendees (both in-person and early vote) will be determined: it is this number that will determine viability and which will be used to calculate delegate allocation.

Caucusgoers will align into presidential preference groups, and fill out their Presidential Preference Card accordingly; this process should take no more than 15 minutes.  Once alignment of caucusgoers has concluded, the precinct chair will record the number of caucusgoers in each group, and add to that the number of early votes with first preference for each candidate.  Those groups that meet the viability threshold (15% in most precincts, one-sixth in precincts with 3 delegates and  25% in precincts with 2 delegates*) will be considered viable.  The precinct chair will announce the viability threshold, the results of the initial alignment, and whether each preference group met the viability threshold.

Preference cards will be collected from those in viable preference groups.  Caucusgoers in non-viable groups then have 15 minutes to either realign to a viable preference group or form a viable preference group by attracting supporters of other non-viable preference groups.  They fill out the second portion of their presidential preference cards, which are then collected. Non-viable groups may only become viable through the movement of in-person caucusgoers; early voters are not taken into account in this process.  Once the final viable groups are determined, any early votes for non-viable candidates are reallocated to the highest-ranked viable candidate on their ballot, if any.

The precinct chair will announce the results of the final alignment, then calculate the number of county convention delegates allocated to each candidate:

(size of the preference group, including both caucusgoers and early voters) x (number of delegates allocated to the precinct) / (total number of early voters + total number of caucusgoers)

This is rounded to the nearest whole number.  If this results in too few delegates being awarded, award delegates to the candidates who were closest to being rounded up.  If too many delegates would be awarded, remove delegates from the candidates who were closest to being rounded down, except that a preference group cannot lose its only delegate.  The precinct chair will have an iPad with them with a Google Form that will help them with this math.

Resolve any ties (fractional or otherwise) by a game of chance (drawing cards from a deck).

The results are reported to the Nevada Democratic Party via the Google Form; the Precinct Chair will also record the precinct result's on paper; this is the official record.  A photo of this will also be sent to the Nevada Democratic Party.

* Precincts with only one delegate (there are 619 of them) do not have a realignment phase, but elect their one delegate by "majority vote," including early voters. Presumably, this is actually a plurality vote.

What Could Go Wrong?

Technical issues: Pollbooks could take forever to load, the iPad used to do the delegate math may have trouble connecting to the internet (it is unclear if there is an offline version) or the precinct chair may not know how to operate it.

Combining the early vote with the in-person vote:  When to reveal the early vote results is a bit confusing and counterintuitive; it's quite possible this could cause confusion, or an overeager precinct chair might try to use the early vote's ranked choice to try to get groups to viability.

Caucusgoers who refuse to realign: Caucusgoers whose first choice isn't viable are expected to realign, but in practice many won't; the rules don't really account for these people.  Their refusal to participate in the realignment shouldn't affect the denominator being used to allocate delegates, but it's possible they may.  (This was a mistake I made for weeks when trying to recanvass the Iowa results.)  Early votes who don't have any viable options listed (the "Sanders/Uncommitted/Uncommitted" voters, for example)

Other math errors: People who can't get the Google Form to work will resort to doing the math themselves, and will make mistakes.  The Math worksheet included with the caucus materials covers a good number of edge cases, but can't cover math mistakes.

Data entry errors: Quite possible with the Google Forms; inconsistencies with the paper record should eventually be caught, but may require a recanvass.

Secrecy: the Nevada Democratic Party is trying to keep a tight lid on all of this, unlike in Iowa, so it's possible that there will be errors that are undetectable without a recount (or having been there to record the results yourselves).
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Erc
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« Reply #37 on: February 23, 2020, 01:55:57 AM »

Really preliminary delegate estimates out of Nevada:

Of CD1's 5 delegates, 3 are pretty much locked in for Sanders and 1 for Biden. Buttigieg gets the last one if he makes viability there (Green Papers says he isn't), otherwise Biden does.

Of CD2's 6 delegates, 3 are locked in for Sanders and 1 for Buttigieg. Warren could make viability and get a delegate here (the other could go to Sanders or Buttigieg), or fail to do so and the remaining two delegates would be split between Sanders and Buttigieg. Biden is in 5th place here behind Klobuchar.

In CD3 and CD4 (6 delegates each), 3 are locked in for Sanders and 2 for Biden; the last one in each depends on whether Buttigieg makes viability. If he doesn't, that delegate goes to Sanders. The Green Papers thinks he's above threshold in CD4 but below it in CD 3.

Statewide (13 delegates), we're 7 are locked in for Sanders and 3 for Biden. Of the remaining three delegates, if Buttigieg makes viability, Buttigieg would get 2 or 3, and Sanders would get 0 or 1. If Buttigieg doesn't make statewide viability, Sanders gets 2 or 3 of them and Biden would get 0 or 1.

Conservative Total:
Sanders 19
Biden 8
Buttigieg 1
TBD 8

If current results hold:
Sanders 22
Biden 9
Buttigieg 5

Best Case for Sanders (a Buttigieg crash):
Sanders 25
Biden 9
Buttigieg 1
Warren 1
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Erc
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« Reply #38 on: February 23, 2020, 11:48:45 PM »

Update with 87% reporting:

Sanders 24
Biden 9
Buttigieg 3

Biden could pick up a statewide delegate from Sanders if he increases his vote share another 0.45%.

Warren could pick up a CD 2 delegate from Sanders if she hits viability in CD 2 (she's currently at 14.01%), but this doesn't look particularly likely.

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Ljube
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« Reply #39 on: February 24, 2020, 12:17:25 AM »

Update with 87% reporting:

Sanders 24
Biden 9
Buttigieg 3

Biden could pick up a statewide delegate from Sanders if he increases his vote share another 0.45%.

Warren could pick up a CD 2 delegate from Sanders if she hits viability in CD 2 (she's currently at 14.01%), but this doesn't look particularly likely.



Just like Trump's South Carolina victory in 2016.
Majority of delegates with 34% of the vote (in Trump's case all of the delegates with 32%).
This should ring alarm bells to Sanders's opposition.
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Erc
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« Reply #40 on: February 28, 2020, 01:18:27 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2020, 12:14:39 AM by Erc »

After doing a similar at-home recanvass with Nevada like I did with Iowa:

There are some pretty substantial errors.

16 precincts gave a candidate viability who should not have it.
55 precincts assign a different number of County Convention Delegates (CCDs) than they are supposed to.
15 precincts used the wrong denominator when calculating their CCDs, resulting in an error.
6 precincts incorrectly denied a candidate viability that should have had it.
24 precincts have some other form of math/rounding error.

In addition to this, there are other clear data entry errors (the 8 final-alignment votes for Deval Patrick, for example).

Fixing the errors would knock 0.10% off Sanders and 0.20% off Buttigieg, while gaining Biden 0.26% and Warren 0.14%.

No national delegates would change as a result of this, as the closest delegate was one of Biden's PLEO delegates; the fact that he gains in a recanvass makes that delegate more secure for him.
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Erc
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« Reply #41 on: March 01, 2020, 12:05:58 AM »

South Carolina delegate projections:

CD 1: Biden 46%, Sanders 19%, Steyer 9%. Securely 4-2 Biden.
CD 2: Biden 51%, Sanders 18%, Steyer 12.7%. Securely 3-1 Biden, barring some weird breakdown in Richland that puts Steyer over threshold.
CD 3: Biden 43%, Sanders 22%, Steyer 14.0%. Securely 2-1 Biden; even if Steyer makes it over threshold, he does not get a delegate.
CD 4: I've checked the precinct-level data; with 100% reporting, this is tied 2-2 Biden-Sanders with around a 1% margin.
CD 5: Biden 52%, Sanders 20%, Steyer 9%. Right now, 4-1 Biden, but could be 3-2 if it's actually 50-22.
CD 6: Biden 56%, Sanders 16.0%, Steyer 12.4%. As long as Sanders stays above threshold, that's 6-2 Biden.
CD 7: Biden 53%, Sanders 19%, Steyer 12.7%. Securely 4-1 Biden.
PLEO: Securely 4-2 Biden.
At-Large: Currently 9-3 Biden, but Sanders is down only 144 votes now.

Biden 37
Sanders 13
TBD 4
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Erc
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« Reply #42 on: March 01, 2020, 09:50:06 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2020, 09:02:32 PM by Erc »

Buttigieg has suspended his campaign.  He gets to keep whatever delegates he has (and retain the right of approval over them when they are chosen between now and June), but the delegates themselves are free to vote for whomever they like on the first ballot.

They're essentially old-style superdelegates.

When and where are his delegates chosen?

New Hampshire District (6 delegates): already chosen.  They are:

Shanika Amarakoon
Alec Momenee-Duprie
Giovanna Komst
Johnnie Christensen
Kathleen O'Donnell
Alan Baker

Iowa District (9 delegates): District Conventions, April 25

New Hampshire At-Large/PLEO (3 delegates): chosen on April 25 by the 6 district-level delegates.

Nevada (3 delegates): State Convention, May 30

Iowa At-Large/PLEO (4-5 delegates): State Convention, June 13.  (This is a full week after the final event in the Virgin Islands).

In prior years, when the Iowa and Nevada delegates weren't pledged based on the caucus night results, it's likely the later stages of the process would have reacted accordingly to Buttigieg's suspension.  This year, the system ensures that Buttigieg keeps his delegates (and effectively makes superdelegates out of them.)

Finally, note that if Buttigieg formally ends his campaign (not just suspends it) by the time one of these delegate selection processes rolls around, his At-Large delegates would be reapportioned among the other candidates as if he had not made it above the threshold.  It's unclear whether this would happen with the PLEO or district delegates, as well.  Regardless, since the NH district delegates have already been chosen, he certainly gets to keep them.
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Erc
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« Reply #43 on: March 01, 2020, 10:18:00 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2020, 11:39:28 PM by Erc »

Buttigieg dropping out just two days before Super Tuesday means there may be a significant early vote for him in states that allow it.

Arkansas had early voting starting February 18 that ends tomorrow, March 2.
California had extensive early voting by mail starting February 3.
Colorado is almost exclusively vote-by-mail, starting February 10.  Ballots need to be received by 7PM on March 3, so the vast majority of the votes have already been cast.  (This may be Buttigieg's best opportunity to get delegates after the end of his campaign).  There is some limited in-person voting on Tuesday.
Maine had no-excuse absentee voting starting February 3.  Maine has ranked-choice voting, but it is not used for delegate allocation purposes, so first-choice Buttigieg ballots are effectively wasted.
Minnesota had no-excuse absentee voting starting January 17.
North Carolina had early voting February 13-29, as well as no-excuse absentee voting starting January 13.
Oklahoma has no-excuse absentee voting by mail, as well as in-person days February 27-29.
Tennessee had early voting from February 12-25.
Texas had early voting February 18-28.
Utah is almost exclusively vote-by-mail, starting around February 11.  One could drop off one's ballot in person ending February 28 (March 2 in select locations).  There is still in-person voting on Tuesday.  This is another possible place where Buttigieg may pick up a delegate or two.
Vermont had early and no-excuse absentee voting starting January 18.

On the other hand, Virginia, Massachusetts, Alabama, and American Samoa don't allow early or no-excuse absentee voting, though absentee voting was of course available except in American Samoa.

For elections after Tuesday:

Democrats Abroad has early voting by mail and email from February 18 - March 10.

March 10 primaries:
Idaho has early voting ending March 6.  (The start varies by county, but began in Ada County on February 24.)
Michigan allows no-excuse absentee voting.
North Dakota allows voting by mail, January 20 - March 5.
Washington is a primarily vote-by-mail state, February 21-March 10.

March 17 primaries:
Arizona has early voting (in person and by mail) starting February 19.
Florida allows voting by mail; the ballots were mailed in early February.  Early voting starts no earlier than March 2.
Illinois allows no-excuse absentee voting, starting February 6.  Early voting varies by location, though Cook County will not start until March 2.
Ohio has no-excuse absentee and early voting, starting February 19.

April 4:
Alaska and Wyoming both have mail options that began in mid-February.  However, both states used ranked-choice voting, so the impact should be limited.
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Erc
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« Reply #44 on: March 02, 2020, 09:05:40 PM »

Klobuchar suspended her campaign.  Basically the same deal as Buttigieg, except she did not get any delegates in Nevada or any at-large Iowa delegates.

She already has her four district delegates in NH:

Charles Knox
Erica de Vries
Patricia McMahon
Michael Atkins

Her other two NH delegates (1 PLEO, 1 At-Large) will be chosen on April 25.
Her one IA delegate will be chosen in the CD 4 convention on April 25.

Early voting implications are essentially the same as Buttigieg, with the exception of whatever early voting happened in the morning and early afternoon of March 2.  Certain states did start early voting  today, so that could have a very small impact in:

Florida began early voting today in select sites (including Miami-Dade).
Cook County, IL began early voting today; it may not be alone in Illinois with that start date.
Georgia started its early voting today.
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Erc
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« Reply #45 on: March 04, 2020, 12:55:48 PM »

Obviously, Biden had a very good night last night.  The Green Papers has him now up over Sanders by 86 delegates.  We'll see how that changes as we get more complete results.

In the meantime, I'm poring through state-by-state.  What I've got so far (the easy ones):

American Samoa
Bloomberg 4
Gabbard 2

Bloomberg's only win before the suspension of his campaign, and what are likely to be Gabbard's only delegates.  It's possible there was some caucus shenanigans here, and I have heard reports of a 5-1 split or a 3 Bloomberg - 2 Uncommitted - 1 Gabbard split, with Bloomberg supporters picking the Uncommitted delegates.  I will try to find more details as they become available.

Minnesota
Biden 38
Sanders 27
Warren 10

A bare majority of the delegates is still quite good for Biden here.  Warren above threshold statewide but below the threshold outside of CDs 4 and 5 means she gets a relatively small haul here.

North Carolina
Biden 66
Sanders 37
Warren 2
Bloomberg 3
TBD 2

A Biden blowout.  The last two delegates are likely to go to him as well, but are still waiting on better CD breakdowns:
Sanders is around 300 votes short of picking up an extra delegate in CD 8.
Bloomberg is around 120 votes short of viability in CD 9; he'd get his delegate from Biden.

Vermont
Sanders 11
Biden 5

Compared to Sanders' complete sweep in 2016, a disappointment for him.

Virginia
Biden 67
Sanders 31
Warren 1

Obviously, an insanely good night for Biden here.  Warren gets a single delegate out of Arlington and environs.  Closest delegate at the moment is in CD 2, where Sanders is 104 votes shy of making it a 3-2 split rather than a 4-1 split.
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Erc
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« Reply #46 on: March 04, 2020, 06:16:46 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2020, 06:21:04 PM by Erc »

Some other states:

Alabama
Biden 44
Sanders 8

Some CD breakdowns are preliminary here, but it's still obviously a disastrous result for Sanders (below viability in CD 2 and CD 7).  As bad as Virginia in terms of raw delegate margin, without even the Warren delegate as mild consolation.

Arkansas
Biden 17
Sanders 9
Bloomberg 5

Don't have good CD breakdowns for the counties split across CDs, so this is subject to change.

Massachusetts
Biden 37
Sanders 29
Warren 25

Looks like all three made viability everywhere, and Bloomberg nowhere.  Some towns still haven't reported, and I don't have CD breakdowns for the towns and cities that are split across CDs.

Oklahoma
Biden 21
Sanders 13
Bloomberg 2
Warren 1

Warren is 43 votes above viability in CD5; it's possible she loses it as the results are finalized.

Tennessee
Biden 33
Sanders 20
Bloomberg 10
Warren 1

Don't have great CD breakdowns below the county level, but these seem pretty likely to remain unchanged.  Bloomberg is above viability statewide (and in 5 CDs); Warren above viability only in CD 5 (Nashville).

Texas
Biden 112
Sanders 98
Bloomberg 11
Warren 7

I don't have good SD breakdowns below the county level, so a lot of this is guesswork, and is likely to change.

Still need to do Colorado, Maine, Utah, and California.  The Green Papers has:

Maine: Biden 10 - Sanders 9 - Warren 5
Colorado: Sanders 23 - Biden 17 - Bloomberg 14 - Warren 13 (all 4 above threshold, and it shows)
Utah: Sanders 13 - Biden 6 - Bloomberg 6 - Warren 4 (ditto)
California: Sanders 221 - Biden 162 - Bloomberg 24 - Warren 7 - Buttigieg(!) 1 (don't trust these numbers)

If these are to be believed, Biden up by 82 delegates but 79 short of a majority.  Warren + Sanders > Biden (barely), but Biden + dropouts > 50%.
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Erc
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« Reply #47 on: March 04, 2020, 11:35:25 PM »

Maine

Biden 11
Sanders 9
Warren 4

Warren is short of viability in CD2.  Sanders is 348 votes shy of the lead in CD1 (and a tie in delegates), but the only towns in CD1 with a population larger than that difference left to report are Thomaston and Alna.

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Erc
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« Reply #48 on: March 05, 2020, 12:38:15 AM »

Colorado

Sanders 23
Biden 18
Bloomberg 14
Warren 12

A lot of Denver and Boulder are still out, and the sub-county CD breakdowns are just guesses here.  Warren's flirting with 15% outside of Denver/Boulder, so her figure is the least certain.  Even if she gets to viability there, she might still not get delegates there due to rounding.

The remaining two states, Utah and California, have a lot of mail voting and will likely not be done for some time.  In both cases, the ballots can be received after election day as long as they were postmarked in time, so the ballots may not be even in the possession of election officials until Friday in California; in Utah, they have in some cases until the 17th to get to the canvass!

As Sanders seems to have won both states, his numbers will look artificially deflated until these two states are accounted for.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #49 on: March 05, 2020, 01:24:14 AM »

North Carolina

Superdelegates

Biden (1): Rep. G.K. Butterfield

Uncommitted (11): Gov. Roy Cooper, Rep. David Price, Rep. Alma Adams, Denise Adams, Wayne Goodwin, Shelia Huggins, Ray McKinnon, Cliff Moone, Bobbie Richardson, John Verdejo, Unknown identity

As a member of the State Executive Committee for the Democrats, I wanted to give an updated list of the five elected unpledged PLEOs (elected February 29th).

DD Adams
Sheila Huggins
Matt Hughes
Jenny Marshall
John Verdeja
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