The Delegate Fight: 2020

[brucejoel99]

Sanders may have withdrawn. That being said Biden cannot officially clinch the Democaric Primaries. He is rougly 750 Delegates short and there aren't enough Delegates in April & May to reach 1,991.

Well, if we're gonna be technical about it, he can't "officially clinch" the nomination until 1,991 pledged delegates have cast their votes for him at the convention.

Of course, though, the DNC itself has already declared him to be the presumptive nominee, so saying he can't "officially clinch" it yet is all but trivial.

[2016]

Sanders may have withdrawn. That being said Biden cannot officially clinch the Democaric Primaries. He is rougly 750 Delegates short and there aren't enough Delegates in April & May to reach 1,991.

Well, if we're gonna be technical about it, he can't "officially clinch" the nomination until 1,991 pledged delegates have cast their votes for him at the convention.

Of course, though, the DNC itself has already declared him to be the presumptive nominee, so saying he can't "officially clinch" it yet is all but trivial.

Who cares what the DNC says? Hillary called Trumps Supporters "Basket of Deplorables" and I am doing the same thing with Bidens Supporters now.

[brucejoel99]

Sanders may have withdrawn. That being said Biden cannot officially clinch the Democaric Primaries. He is rougly 750 Delegates short and there aren't enough Delegates in April & May to reach 1,991.

Well, if we're gonna be technical about it, he can't "officially clinch" the nomination until 1,991 pledged delegates have cast their votes for him at the convention.

Of course, though, the DNC itself has already declared him to be the presumptive nominee, so saying he can't "officially clinch" it yet is all but trivial.

Who cares what the DNC says? Hillary called Trumps Supporters "Basket of Deplorables" and I am doing the same thing with Bidens Supporters now.

I mean, with regards to determining who the nominee of the Democratic Party is, what the party's executive committee says matters. You might not care what they say, but everybody else with a brain does.

As for the latter half of your opinion:

[Erc]

Sanders may have withdrawn. That being said Biden cannot officially clinch the Democaric Primaries. He is rougly 750 Delegates short and there aren't enough Delegates in April & May to reach 1,991.

That's not even close to correct.  Biden has more than 50% of the pledged delegates among the states that have already allocated their delegates; assuming he gets more than 50% of the pledged delegates in the remaining states (which is all but assured at this point), he'll have a majority on the first ballot.

It is true that enough states have pushed off their primaries into June or beyond that he won't pass 50% of all pledged delegates until at least June 2, but that's trivia at this point.

[Erc]

Biden wins Alaska, splitting the delegate 8-7.

It’s unclear whether Sanders will continue to accrue At-Large and PLEO delegates in states that have not yet selected those delegates.  His statements that he wants to continue to accrue delegates, plus the negative incentive for the DNC to twist the knife at this point, mean I assume he will.

[The Mikado]

Sanders may have withdrawn. That being said Biden cannot officially clinch the Democaric Primaries. He is rougly 750 Delegates short and there aren't enough Delegates in April & May to reach 1,991.

That's not even close to correct.  Biden has more than 50% of the pledged delegates among the states that have already allocated their delegates; assuming he gets more than 50% of the pledged delegates in the remaining states (which is all but assured at this point), he'll have a majority on the first ballot.

It is true that enough states have pushed off their primaries into June or beyond that he won't pass 50% of all pledged delegates until at least June 2, but that's trivia at this point.

This is all true. A few points to poster 2016:

A. The original deadline was June 9th. There are now 4 states after that (LA, KY, NY, and NJ). Even if those delegations were all cut in half (not gonna happen), it'd just lower the overall majority number in the process. Even if you don't care about that, Biden will cross 1,991 regardless on June 2nd, so those states voting later have no effect.

B. Even if states completely cancel their primaries, like NY, CT, and PR are threatening to do, all that does is further reduce the total number of delegates, making a majority way easier to get to. If NY, CT, and PR all effectively boycott the convention, that just dramatically lowers the magic number and makes Biden even closer to it.

C. Regardless, the delegate penalties to LA, KY, NY (if its primary happens), and NJ are not going to happen because it'd be really, really stupid to do that.

D. So Biden clinches June 2nd rather than April 28th like he would have without coronavirus and the cancellations. So what? He's still going to clinch.

[Politics Fan]

Sanders may have withdrawn. That being said Biden cannot officially clinch the Democaric Primaries. He is rougly 750 Delegates short and there aren't enough Delegates in April & May to reach 1,991.

That's not even close to correct.  Biden has more than 50% of the pledged delegates among the states that have already allocated their delegates; assuming he gets more than 50% of the pledged delegates in the remaining states (which is all but assured at this point), he'll have a majority on the first ballot.

It is true that enough states have pushed off their primaries into June or beyond that he won't pass 50% of all pledged delegates until at least June 2, but that's trivia at this point.

This is all true. A few points to poster 2016:

A. The original deadline was June 9th. There are now 4 states after that (LA, KY, NY, and NJ). Even if those delegations were all cut in half (not gonna happen), it'd just lower the overall majority number in the process. Even if you don't care about that, Biden will cross 1,991 regardless on June 2nd, so those states voting later have no effect.

B. Even if states completely cancel their primaries, like NY, CT, and PR are threatening to do, all that does is further reduce the total number of delegates, making a majority way easier to get to. If NY, CT, and PR all effectively boycott the convention, that just dramatically lowers the magic number and makes Biden even closer to it.

C. Regardless, the delegate penalties to LA, KY, NY (if its primary happens), and NJ are not going to happen because it'd be really, really stupid to do that.

D. So Biden clinches June 2nd rather than April 28th like he would have without coronavirus and the cancellations. So what? He's still going to clinch.

I’m pretty sure that if states such as NY were to cancel their primary the state party would be able to hold a virtual convention where they could just appoint their delegates to Biden. That has happened in the past where incumbent Presidents have ran unopposed some state parties just choose to appoint their delegate to them without having a primary.

[Politics Fan]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/19/us/elections/results-wyoming-president-democrat-caucus-election.html

Biden wins Wyoming 72.2% to 27.8% splitting the delegates 12-2 in his favor.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/19/us/elections/results-wyoming-president-democrat-caucus-election.html

Biden wins Wyoming 72.2% to 27.8% splitting the delegates 12-2 in his favor.

So he did manage to win a caucus after all.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/19/us/elections/results-wyoming-president-democrat-caucus-election.html

Biden wins Wyoming 72.2% to 27.8% splitting the delegates 12-2 in his favor.

So he did manage to win a caucus after all.

No, this was an all-mail primary. The caucus part was scrapped after the coronavirus outbreak.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/19/us/elections/results-wyoming-president-democrat-caucus-election.html

Biden wins Wyoming 72.2% to 27.8% splitting the delegates 12-2 in his favor.

So he did manage to win a caucus after all.

No, this was an all-mail primary. The caucus part was scrapped after the coronavirus outbreak.

That's right. I forgot.

[The Mikado]

So Tuesday is the Ohio primary. Biden's still on track to officially clinch on June 2nd, even with a number of states pushed back behind that date.

[2016]

So,
because of the New York State Board of Elections cancelling the New York Presidential Primary the "Green Papers" awarded all of New York's 274 National Delegates to Joe Biden.
The Networks and the AP did not make such a move.

According to "Green Papers" Biden has now 1.588 National Delegates awarded, Sanders has 959 National Delegates.

Biden needs 303 Delegates to clinch but they aren't even close to 300 Delgates available in May so Biden indeed has to wait until June 2nd.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Without taking NY into consideration, Biden needs to get around 90% of the delegates available to clinch on June 2. With that and the agreement between campaigns that they won't be reallocating any Sanders delegates, Biden is probably more likely to clinch on June 9 rather than June 2.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

You should edit the OP now that it's May.

[The Mikado]

Given it looks like NE's delegates went 29/29 for Biden, where does that leave us re: expected clinch date?

[Politics Fan]

Given it looks like NE's delegates went 29/29 for Biden, where does that leave us re: expected clinch date?

I don’t think anything has really changed. Barring a number of states rescheduling Biden should clinch June 2.

[2016]

Biden needs 430-440 Delegates out of the 500 available to clinch the Nomination.

[Ferguson97]

Biden needs 430-440 Delegates out of the 500 available to clinch the Nomination.

Wait, meaning there's only 500 delegates left?

[2016]

Biden needs 430-440 Delegates out of the 500 available to clinch the Nomination.

Wait, meaning there's only 500 delegates left?

No, there are only 500 Pledged Delegates available on June 2nd when 7 States (Montana, South Dakota, New Mexico, Indiana, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island) + DC are voting.

Biden needs a bare minimum of 430 out of the 500 on June 2nd to clinch.

[Ferguson97]

Biden needs 430-440 Delegates out of the 500 available to clinch the Nomination.

Wait, meaning there's only 500 delegates left?

No, there are only 500 Pledged Delegates available on June 2nd when 7 States (Montana, South Dakota, New Mexico, Indiana, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island) + DC are voting.

Biden needs a bare minimum of 430 out of the 500 on June 2nd to clinch.

So he could theoretically clinch it on June 2, but doesn't really need to?

[2016]

Biden needs 430-440 Delegates out of the 500 available to clinch the Nomination.

Wait, meaning there's only 500 delegates left?

No, there are only 500 Pledged Delegates available on June 2nd when 7 States (Montana, South Dakota, New Mexico, Indiana, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island) + DC are voting.

Biden needs a bare minimum of 430 out of the 500 on June 2nd to clinch.

So he could theoretically clinch it on June 2, but doesn't really need to?

The sooner he clinches the better for him. He will almost certainly clinch it on June 7th when Goergia and West Virginia vote.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Biden needs 430-440 Delegates out of the 500 available to clinch the Nomination.

Wait, meaning there's only 500 delegates left?

No, there are only 500 Pledged Delegates available on June 2nd when 7 States (Montana, South Dakota, New Mexico, Indiana, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island) + DC are voting.

Biden needs a bare minimum of 430 out of the 500 on June 2nd to clinch.

So he could theoretically clinch it on June 2, but doesn't really need to?

The sooner he clinches the better for him. He will almost certainly clinch it on June 7th when Goergia and West Virginia vote.

He got them today, June 5.