Why did HW Bush underperform in California in 1988? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 09:22:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Why did HW Bush underperform in California in 1988? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Why did HW Bush underperform in California in 1988?  (Read 1351 times)
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,721
United States


WWW
« on: December 28, 2019, 10:51:59 AM »

California voted to the left of the nation when Democrats lost for years:


1972:  55-41 Nixon vs 60-38 Nixon nationwide

1984:  57-41 Reagan vs 59-40 Reagan nationwide

1988:  51-47 Bush vs  53-45 Bush nationwide

However, California ran to the right of the nation when Democrats won:

1960:  50-49 Nixon vs. 49-49 Kennedy nationwide

1964:  59-41 Johnson vs 61-39 Johnson nationwide

1976:  49-47 Ford vs 50-48 Carter nationwide

The only time California ran to the right of the nation in my lifetime was in 1968:

1968:  47-44 Nixon vs. 43-42 Nixon nationwide

One reason for these results is that from 1960 to 2008, California was THE battleground state.  There were many books that spoke of this.  As a kid interested in politics, I remember reading a book around 1971 from my public library that predicted that the Democrats would beat Nixon; it predicted that the Southern states would return to the Democratic fold, and that "California would be THE battleground for 1972"; it would be where the election would be decided.

Was any election "decided" by California?  One could argue that the 1968 Presidential election was.  Nixon carried California by a mere 3 points, and HHH was surging on Election Day.  A shift of 1.5% of the votes in California to HHH would have thrown the election into the Electoral College, where it would have become interesting.  That didn't happen, but what if it had?  I would state, however, that this was the ONLY time that California was, truly, a "tipping point" state of any kind.
Logged
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,721
United States


WWW
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2019, 03:11:42 PM »

California voted to the left of the nation when Democrats lost for years:


1972:  55-41 Nixon vs 60-38 Nixon nationwide

1984:  57-41 Reagan vs 59-40 Reagan nationwide

1988:  51-47 Bush vs  53-45 Bush nationwide

However, California ran to the right of the nation when Democrats won:

1960:  50-49 Nixon vs. 49-49 Kennedy nationwide

1964:  59-41 Johnson vs 61-39 Johnson nationwide

1976:  49-47 Ford vs 50-48 Carter nationwide

The only time California ran to the right of the nation in my lifetime was in 1968:

1968:  47-44 Nixon vs. 43-42 Nixon nationwide

One reason for these results is that from 1960 to 2008, California was THE battleground state.  There were many books that spoke of this.  As a kid interested in politics, I remember reading a book around 1971 from my public library that predicted that the Democrats would beat Nixon; it predicted that the Southern states would return to the Democratic fold, and that "California would be THE battleground for 1972"; it would be where the election would be decided.

Was any election "decided" by California?  One could argue that the 1968 Presidential election was.  Nixon carried California by a mere 3 points, and HHH was surging on Election Day.  A shift of 1.5% of the votes in California to HHH would have thrown the election into the Electoral College, where it would have become interesting.  That didn't happen, but what if it had?  I would state, however, that this was the ONLY time that California was, truly, a "tipping point" state of any kind.



Not true it voted significantly to the right of the nation in 1980


Yes, that was an exception, but there are several big qualifiers here:

1.  Reagan only ran 2% ahead in CA than he did nationwide.

2.  Reagan was identified with CA in a way that Nixon wasn't.  Nixon was a national figure from 1952, onward.

3.  In Congressional races, the Democrats did rather well.   Democrat Alan Cranston was re-elected to the Senate.  In the House, only three (3) CA Democratic incumbents lost.   All three were old and had been hanging on for some time. 
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.021 seconds with 13 queries.