Why did HW Bush underperform in California in 1988? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 01:06:43 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Why did HW Bush underperform in California in 1988? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Why did HW Bush underperform in California in 1988?  (Read 1350 times)
Jamison5
Rookie
**
Posts: 126


« on: December 28, 2019, 07:14:34 PM »

California voted to the left of the nation when Democrats lost for years:


1972:  55-41 Nixon vs 60-38 Nixon nationwide

1984:  57-41 Reagan vs 59-40 Reagan nationwide

1988:  51-47 Bush vs  53-45 Bush nationwide

However, California ran to the right of the nation when Democrats won:

1960:  50-49 Nixon vs. 49-49 Kennedy nationwide

1964:  59-41 Johnson vs 61-39 Johnson nationwide

1976:  49-47 Ford vs 50-48 Carter nationwide

The only time California ran to the right of the nation in my lifetime was in 1968:

1968:  47-44 Nixon vs. 43-42 Nixon nationwide

One reason for these results is that from 1960 to 2008, California was THE battleground state.  There were many books that spoke of this.  As a kid interested in politics, I remember reading a book around 1971 from my public library that predicted that the Democrats would beat Nixon; it predicted that the Southern states would return to the Democratic fold, and that "California would be THE battleground for 1972"; it would be where the election would be decided.

Was any election "decided" by California?  One could argue that the 1968 Presidential election was.  Nixon carried California by a mere 3 points, and HHH was surging on Election Day.  A shift of 1.5% of the votes in California to HHH would have thrown the election into the Electoral College, where it would have become interesting.  That didn't happen, but what if it had?  I would state, however, that this was the ONLY time that California was, truly, a "tipping point" state of any kind.


California was the tipping point state in 1916, which Wilson won by 3,773 votes. It was not the tipping point in 1968, though I suppose it did have the potential to be if a few other states like Illinois and Ohio had not been closer than California.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 12 queries.