Who won white southerners in 1976?

[coolface1572]

I hear some say that JFK was the last Democrat to win southern whites. I agree with that firmly in every case except 1976 where Carter might have won them?

[TDAS04]

Ford.  Ford received about 52% of white voters, both in the South and nationally.  Ford likely carried the white vote in 8 out of 11 states of the former Confederacy.  Carter carried the white vote in Georgia, Arkansas, and probably Tennessee.

Carter actually carried the more rural whites, while Ford carried whites in the metropolitan areas.

[coolface1572]

Ford.  Ford likely carried the white vote in 8 out of 11 states of the former Confederacy.  Carter carried the white vote in Georgia, Arkansas, and probably Tennessee.

Carter actually carried the more rural whites, while Ford carried whites in the metropolitan areas.

Yeah I noticed the metro area trend. It's a bit strange that the counties with Dallas, Houston, Birmingham, Raleigh, Montgomery, and Jackson all went to Ford and most didn't change until the 90s or 2000s.

Even in 1980, Carter still did really well in rural areas.

[RINO Tom]

Ford.  Ford received about 52% of white voters, both in the South and nationally.  Ford likely carried the white vote in 8 out of 11 states of the former Confederacy.  Carter carried the white vote in Georgia, Arkansas, and probably Tennessee.

Carter actually carried the more rural whites, while Ford carried whites in the metropolitan areas.

Yep, and then - as with today - there are a lot more of the latter than the former.

[Arbitrage1980]

Lot of people misunderstand the South's realignment to the GOP. It was not because of "racist whites." The realignment began, as it always does, at the presidential level. Before the end of WWII, the only Republicans in the South were blacks and whites in the applachian regions of eastern TN and western NC descended from the Union sympathizers. After WWII, the South saw an influx of transplants due to new industries and economic growth. Eisenhower made major gains in the South by winning affluent suburbs and urban areas in TX, FL, VA. Ford continued this pattern in 1976, but his weakness with rural whites and evangelicals resulted in him winning only VA amongst the Southern states. Even in 1980 Reagan did not do that well with rural whites, as a bunch of the Southern states were decided by margins of less than 2%.

At the downballot races, the South did not become "fully" GOP until the early 00s. And in VA we saw reverse realignment due to the influx of college educated liberal whites into the northern part of the state.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Lot of people misunderstand the South's realignment to the GOP. It was not because of "racist whites." The realignment began, as it always does, at the presidential level. Before the end of WWII, the only Republicans in the South were blacks and whites in the applachian regions of eastern TN and western NC descended from the Union sympathizers. After WWII, the South saw an influx of transplants due to new industries and economic growth. Eisenhower made major gains in the South by winning affluent suburbs and urban areas in TX, FL, VA. Ford continued this pattern in 1976, but his weakness with rural whites and evangelicals resulted in him winning only VA amongst the Southern states. Even in 1980 Reagan did not do that well with rural whites, as a bunch of the Southern states were decided by margins of less than 2%.

At the downballot races, the South did not become "fully" GOP until the early 00s. And in VA we saw reverse realignment due to the influx of college educated liberal whites into the northern part of the state.

This.

The only thing I'd add to this is the increasing influence of the energy industry and the GOP.  As the National Democratic Party became seen as more anti-Big Oil, this pushed TX, LA, MS, and AL (all of which have offshore drilling) toward the Republican Party at all levels.

[Arbitrage1980]

Lot of people misunderstand the South's realignment to the GOP. It was not because of "racist whites." The realignment began, as it always does, at the presidential level. Before the end of WWII, the only Republicans in the South were blacks and whites in the applachian regions of eastern TN and western NC descended from the Union sympathizers. After WWII, the South saw an influx of transplants due to new industries and economic growth. Eisenhower made major gains in the South by winning affluent suburbs and urban areas in TX, FL, VA. Ford continued this pattern in 1976, but his weakness with rural whites and evangelicals resulted in him winning only VA amongst the Southern states. Even in 1980 Reagan did not do that well with rural whites, as a bunch of the Southern states were decided by margins of less than 2%.

At the downballot races, the South did not become "fully" GOP until the early 00s. And in VA we saw reverse realignment due to the influx of college educated liberal whites into the northern part of the state.

This.

The only thing I'd add to this is the increasing influence of the energy industry and the GOP.  As the National Democratic Party became seen as more anti-Big Oil, this pushed TX, LA, MS, and AL (all of which have offshore drilling) toward the Republican Party at all levels.

Correct. And in 2000, Gore's liberal positions on the environment cost him West Virginia, a state that went for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice. Winning that would have landed Gore in the White House.

TX and FL did not become re-aligned at the state level until the 90s under the governorships of the Bush brothers. GA did not elect a GOP governor until Sonny Perdue in 2002 and did not have 2 GOP senators until Johnny Isakson's election in 2004. In the border southern states, the Dems controlled the state legislatures consistently until about a decade ago. It was actually rural areas that converted to the GOP last. The notion that the South magically went from Dem to GOP due to the 1964 Civil Rights Act and white racism, is a liberal myth not supported by data and history.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Lot of people misunderstand the South's realignment to the GOP. It was not because of "racist whites." The realignment began, as it always does, at the presidential level. Before the end of WWII, the only Republicans in the South were blacks and whites in the applachian regions of eastern TN and western NC descended from the Union sympathizers. After WWII, the South saw an influx of transplants due to new industries and economic growth. Eisenhower made major gains in the South by winning affluent suburbs and urban areas in TX, FL, VA. Ford continued this pattern in 1976, but his weakness with rural whites and evangelicals resulted in him winning only VA amongst the Southern states. Even in 1980 Reagan did not do that well with rural whites, as a bunch of the Southern states were decided by margins of less than 2%.

At the downballot races, the South did not become "fully" GOP until the early 00s. And in VA we saw reverse realignment due to the influx of college educated liberal whites into the northern part of the state.

This.

The only thing I'd add to this is the increasing influence of the energy industry and the GOP.  As the National Democratic Party became seen as more anti-Big Oil, this pushed TX, LA, MS, and AL (all of which have offshore drilling) toward the Republican Party at all levels.

Correct. And in 2000, Gore's liberal positions on the environment cost him West Virginia, a state that went for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice. Winning that would have landed Gore in the White House.

TX and FL did not become re-aligned at the state level until the 90s under the governorships of the Bush brothers. GA did not elect a GOP governor until Sonny Perdue in 2002 and did not have 2 GOP senators until Johnny Isakson's election in 2004. In the border southern states, the Dems controlled the state legislatures consistently until about a decade ago. It was actually rural areas that converted to the GOP last. The notion that the South magically went from Dem to GOP due to the 1964 Civil Rights Act and white racism, is a liberal myth not supported by data and history.

The 1964 election did make, for many white Southerners, "voting Republican for President" their default position.  The realignment at the Presidential level started almost immediately; if there had been no George Wallace independent candidacy in 1968, it is likely that Nixon would have swept the South, including Texas.

Indeed, Wallace's decision to remain a Democrat at the state level and run for President as a Democrat in both 1972 and 1976 delayed the switch to the GOP by white Southerners.  Without Wallace, the leading GOP politician in the South in terms of name recognition was probably Strom Thurmond.  Wallace eclipsed Thurmond in 1964 by challenging LBJ in the Democratic Party, and then refusing to support the national ticket.  Had Wallace become a Republican in 1964 (as he reportedly considered), the switch to the GOP would have been on, and it would have been accelerated by younger and less senior conservative Democrats who had not accumulated scads of seniority.

Without George Wallace in 1972, there was no Democrat that most white Southerners seriously liked.  White Southerners viewed Jimmy Carter with a degree of skepticism, and viewed him as no better than McGovern by 1980.  This was not just because of social issues; it was because the Democratic Party shifted its position on National Defense after 1968, and its new antiwar posture threatened the economies of many areas in the South that were dependent on military installations for their local economies to thrive.

The event that really sealed the doom of the enduring Democratic South was the end of the Seniority system in Congress.  This required Southern Democrats to moderate their voting records to accomodate the national Democratic Party, and it required them to go on record as endorsing the National Ticket, even if they did little to campaign for them.