What happens in the next Israeli Election?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Honestly, I am expecting option 4. Sadly, I think free and fair elections in Israel are going to be a thing of the past. The parties of the Jewish left and non-Jewish groups will loss almost all or all their seats.

[Meclazine for Israel]

As with some Israeli elections, a surprise terrorist attack 1-3 days before the election may get Netanyahu re-elected (if he is running).

I would think he would be tired of holding the flame to be honest.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Honestly, I am expecting option 4. Sadly, I think free and fair elections in Israel are going to be a thing of the past. The parties of the Jewish left and non-Jewish groups will loss almost all or all their seats.

Pretty out of touch statement -- if anything, the "can rig elections" power in Israel is much more on the left-wing (the military leadership, the courts, the Tel Aviv business elite, etc.) Voted #1.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Honestly, I am expecting option 4. Sadly, I think free and fair elections in Israel are going to be a thing of the past. The parties of the Jewish left and non-Jewish groups will loss almost all or all their seats.

Pretty out of touch statement -- if anything, the "can rig elections" power in Israel is much more on the left-wing (the military leadership, the courts, the Tel Aviv business elite, etc.) Voted #1.

Btw, on how hard it is to rig elections, this is an interesting paper that suggests that even RTE, a much more powerful leader than Netanyahu who was able to purge many of his enemies post 2016, was only able to rig Turkish elections* in 2023 to a 0.6% gain for himself -- less than the margin of victory.

*Not counting press and media control, but that's both harder to measure and even less feasible for Netanyahu to implement, even if he were so inclined, which he obviously isn't. Netanyahu is a very Americanized Israeli leader, and even if he weren't democracy has pretty broad support in Israeli politics.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There are two underrated, risky scenarios for the opposition:
- The opposition wins, but Likud is still the largest party. This would give Netanyahu a prime opportunity to split the opposition and form a new government
- The opposition “wins” a majority, but only including the Arab parties. If this happens and some of the Jewish opposition parties find it impossible to work with the Arab opposition parties, Netanyahu will be given a chance to split off parts of the opposition as above

The polls suggest Likud and the government have recovered a bit from the nadir of post-October 7, but not enough to save it. Still, there is a long road to 2026 and Netanyahu is politically smarter (at self-preservation) than any of his mainstream Israeli opponents.

I refuse to be optimistic until the opposition drafts Jonathan Harker.

[Flyersfan232]

There are two underrated, risky scenarios for the opposition:
- The opposition wins, but Likud is still the largest party. This would give Netanyahu a prime opportunity to split the opposition and form a new government
- The opposition “wins” a majority, but only including the Arab parties. If this happens and some of the Jewish opposition parties find it impossible to work with the Arab opposition parties, Netanyahu will be given a chance to split off parts of the opposition as above

The polls suggest Likud and the government have recovered a bit from the nadir of post-October 7, but not enough to save it. Still, there is a long road to 2026 and Netanyahu is politically smarter (at self-preservation) than any of his mainstream Israeli opponents.

I refuse to be optimistic until the opposition drafts Jonathan Harker.

biden could hurt the opposition

[Mike88]

As with some Israeli elections, a surprise terrorist attack 1-3 days before the election may get Netanyahu re-elected (if he is running).

I would think he would be tired of holding the flame to be honest.

I think, this time, it would backfire against Netanyahu. It would be another episode where he failed to protect citizens and it would hurt him electorally.

[CumbrianLefty]

As with some Israeli elections, a surprise terrorist attack 1-3 days before the election may get Netanyahu re-elected (if he is running).

I would think he would be tired of holding the flame to be honest.

I think, this time, it would backfire against Netanyahu. It would be another episode where he failed to protect citizens and it would hurt him electorally.

I agree, and it would make his opponents even angrier (and thus still more determined to vote)

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Keep in mind that the left in Israel has been dead for over twenty years and the opposition there is the center-right led by a former General. It's going to be very hard for Netanyahu to rig the game against him, due to the fact that the wheels of power don't fear Gantz.

[Hnv1]

4 is ridiculous. There's no way the election will be rigged. Moreover, our ancient electoral system makes it tremendously difficult.

What is likely is that Gantz wins but forms a government tilting to the right

[patzer]

The election will definitely be free and fair, and Likud will almost certainly have a heavy defeat.

But I couldn't vote for any of the options because it omits options like the current wartime cabinet coalition continuing but this time with Gantz as PM and Likud as a junior coalition partner. If, as current polls suggest, is quite possible, Likud finishes on a similar seat total to Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Otzma Yehudit, then they won't have any remotely viable claim at being a main party of government, so I'd expect Bibi gets knifed in favour of Gallant after the election and they become a junior coalition partner.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really do think enough Israelis have finally had enough of Bibi.

A new coalition will probably form. How competent they will be is another story.