VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[Skill and Chance]

Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor

How do you think she would do as a candidate?

I would guess very well. Virginia isn't a state I work in (though it will probably be assigned to me if I move there, which I'm currently planning on) so I haven't seen any numbers on her. But I imagine that her becoming the first Black female governor in America would be an appealing point to many Dem primary voters, especially given the complications with Northam and Herring, and her youthfulness/likely generational change message would do well for her against McAuliffe if he gets in.

VA in 2020/2021 is different than the VA I grew up and voted in but I'd guess that while Foy would be a compelling candidate in a general she'd still probably lose to T-Mac. VA isn't a machine state but Dems there have a lot of party loyalty; there aren't very many Dems in leadership outside of the party mainstream or who haven't been in the party for a while. With gov experience McAuliffe would still be a heavy favorite in that race and I think he'd actually be able to negate some of Foy's possible advantage with AAs if you discount Richmond.

This.  Progressive vaguely outsider candidates have almost always flopped in VA Dem primaries.  See Tom Perriello 2017, also Aneesh Chopra and Justin Fairfax running as the progressive alternatives to establishment Northam and Herring in 2013.

Also, while it's not quite Tammany Hall, the one (consecutive) term governor system with unlimited terms for LG and AG definitely encourages "you'll get your turn" machine politics and staying quiet about scandals/corruption.  That's a big part of how Northam and Fairfax got as far as they did without their scandals coming out until years after they already won statewide.

T Mac was assumed to be a scandal machine at the time he ran, but he was probably the best governor of VA in recent times.

[Skill and Chance]

has anyone ever served non-consecutive terms as VA governor, besides one guy whose name I forgot in the 1970s-1980s? Is the state's political culture accepting of the concept in the abstract?

It's accepting, the very first governor having done that (then, the rule was 3 terms of 1 year and then 4 years ban). Patrick Henry did 1776-1779 and 1784-1786. James Monroe (1799-1802, 1811 (resigned 4 months into his term to become Secretary of State) also served non-consecutive terms under that rule.

In recent years, only Mills Godwin did it( 1965-1969 and 1973-1977 (the former one as Democrat, the latter as Republican))

From 1925 to Mills Godwin's 1st term in 1965, the Byrd Organization political machine designated who would run for governor and cleared the Dem primary in advance for that person.  General elections were not competitive until 1965 as the Byrd Organization had managed to prevent virtually all of their opponents from being eligible to vote with a very complicated poll tax.  The Bryd Organization was also very fiscally conservative compared to other Dixiecrat machines, which may have facilitated a fast party switch for Godwin.  In between Godwin's 2 terms, a Republican won for the 1st time in the 20th century.

[Skill and Chance]

T-Mac will win this if he wants. I think he'll wait until after the November election and see what happens. If Biden is elected, he will probably consider his options on how the state of the race is and which, if any, job is offered to him. He'd make a great Chief of Staff, Treasury or Commerce secretary.

I actually think running McAuliffe is more important to VA Dems if Biden wins.  He's literally the only person who has won VA-GOV with a president of the same party in the 50 years since the Solid South days.  That's quite a calling card. 

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe, and then give Northam a second term after that.

The one term limit should be abolished. It's a relic from the 19th century, where governors often had a weak position in many southern states. All other states have changed the law, Virginia is the only one left. Along with Vermont and New Hampshire, who have two year terms (which hardly makes sense).

I agree. Also, eliminate these stupid odd year elections at state and municipal levels.

Yes, they should move to midterm years, as Los Angeles as done by moving the mayoral election from 2021 into 2022, extending Garcetti's current term.

I believe Kentucky is considering this as well?  In any case, odd year elections, 2 year terms , and 1 term limits for governors all have a very 19th century vibe.   

Odd year elections tend to slow national trends.  Now that the party gaining ground controls the legislature in both states, I wonder if we will see them send amendments to the voters?  Kentucky considered moving gubernatorial elections to presidential years, but the proposal got shelved in 2018.

[Skill and Chance]

Which is why Carroll-Foy is running. Perriello, by this point, is really old news.

Perriello's an upstanding guy, but if he couldn't find that photo in Northam's yearbook, electoral politics isn't for him. 

[Skill and Chance]

Which is why Carroll-Foy is running. Perriello, by this point, is really old news.

Perriello's an upstanding guy, but if he couldn't find that photo in Northam's yearbook, electoral politics isn't for him. 

It might be because I don't work in the money pit that is US politics but Northam wouldn't really strike me as someone you'd send campaign staff (who in a primary election are an absolute premium) to dig around in his past- its a complete stab in the dark at the best of times and there's an alternative universe where Perriello lost the primary because he spent £50,000 earmarked for ads on an overpaid law firm.

Besides its as much an indictment on the RNC who actually did have the resources to find this sort of stuff.

With the US approach to free speech law, particularly post-2010, campaign ads in any statewide race (including seriously contested primaries) are normally at the saturation point anyway.  There is effectively 0 marginal value to an additional generic TV ad in a statewide race in the US system.  The only time advertising matters in our system is if one candidate never gets enough money to go on air in the first place (very rare in statewide races) or occasionally if one candidate is outspending all of the others by at least 10X (but even that accomplished ~nothing for Bloomberg in the presidential primary).  In a high profile election, it's very possible that seeing/hearing an additional media ad annoys more voters than it attracts.

By contrast, it's true that funding opposition research is more likely than not to be a total loss, but it gives you a small chance of an automatic win, like finding Northam's yearbook photo would have been for Perriello.  The odds can be very long and still justify investment because of the automatic victory condition. 

[Skill and Chance]

Herring's big mistake was deferring to Northam in 2017.  In retrospect, 3 different people basically passed up a chance to automatically become governor in 2017: Herring by waiting for 2021, Perriello for by not finding the yearbooks before the primary and Gillespie by not finding the yearbooks during the GE. 

[Skill and Chance]

He's the sort of candidate who could be Virginia's Hogan during a Biden presidency.

[Skill and Chance]

I’m curious what people think of the one term limit; I wonder if it’s a block on Virginia Governors going into higher office, especially with the senate seats being blocked until 2026

It's something that used to very common (nearly universal in the South) and VA is the only state that has retained it.  I agree that it handicaps VA governors vs. governors of other states in running for president, but not for senate.  Both current senators were former governors, and at least one of the seats has almost always been held by a former governor. 

[Skill and Chance]

In theory, it gives more people a chance to run for Governor and allows for more competitive primary (and general) elections. Normally members of the same party would get shut out whenever their governor runs for re-election. Since no one can ever run for re-election, you get more of a mix of platforms and styles running the state. Even when a former governor like T-Mac runs again later on, they aren't quite as entrenched as they would be running for re-election. It might also reduce corruption in government to get a chance to shake up the executive every four years without needing to change parties.

The drawback is if you have a governor who manages the state well, it's frustrating to not be allowed to just keep them on for another four years, especially in times of crisis. It does also create a kind of pipeline from governor to Senate and other offices because politicians don't like to lose the limelight for four years. That could be a loss for the executive at the expense of other offices.

On balance I value accessibility over stability, so I'd say it's a decent system.

In practice, this doesn't really happen, though because the LG and AG can serve unlimited terms, and as the only other statewide offices, they are the traditional next-in-lines to become governor.  There's a very strong incentive to keep your mouth shut about any scandals until it's "your turn."  The state legislature also has no term limits, which can lead to similar problems as people make deals waiting for one of LG/AG to come open. 

Traditionally, the best and least scandalous governors are the outsiders who get elected without coming up through the legislature or LG/AG: McAuliffe, Warner, Linwood Holton, etc.

How ironic is it that the governors before and after McAuliffe had major scandals while he was basically clean?