VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[jamestroll]

Under a Biden Midterm, the 2021 VA elections from Governor to county level offices will show how much of the suburban swing was a reaction or Trump or genuine trends. Especially in the Richmond and Virginia Beach area and Loudoun County to a lesser extent.

Now, no matter how many times you say it, Nova was not a Romney Clinton region. It was an Obama-Clinton region with Loudoun County even fitting that definition, barely.

[jamestroll]

Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor

How do you think she would do as a candidate?

[jamestroll]

I am shocked that there are not multiple threads on Virginia 2021 Elections but a few interesting pieces of news.

1) Due to the delay in the census it is possible that Virginia will have to hold house of delegate elections under the current maps in the 2021 elections but may have to hold elections again in 2022 under a newly drawn map. Some in the GOP may hope that a Biden midterm may give them two chances to retake the House of Delegates. Lol, probably would not happen but they have a 10% chance I guess. The State Senate would be unimpacted as they do not hold elections until 2023.

2) Terry McAuliffe looks like he is in it to run for Governor. He probably clears the Democratic field but we all know how bringing back the past works. He could be defeated in the primary. There is no current Republican who would be able to be elected in Virginia in the current climate. Jill Vogel is tossed around at times. To put in perspective how crazy the GOP based is: Only one Republican in the State Senate voted in favor of banning gay conversion therapy I believe.

Be prepared for many many many Virginia threads over the next few years. We may need to create a new Virginia sub board to accomodate.

[jamestroll]

I remember some people saying that Virginia could flip back GOP because the GOP held the Sheriff's office in Loudoun County, kept a Fairfax County Board of Supervisors seat, and the total legislative vote in Virginia Beach leaned Republican.

As if candidate quality and local politics does not matter. It still does... but every major indicator shows that Biden will win the state by around 10 or more in November and even in a Biden Administration the GOP has very little chance of picking up the gubernatorial seat.

[jamestroll]

I remember some people saying that Virginia could flip back GOP because the GOP held the Sheriff's office in Loudoun County, kept a Fairfax County Board of Supervisors seat, and the total legislative vote in Virginia Beach leaned Republican.

As if candidate quality and local politics does not matter. It still does... but every major indicator shows that Biden will win the state by around 10 or more in November and even in a Biden Administration the GOP has very little chance of picking up the gubernatorial seat.

You seriously believe in the fairy tale that Biden will win by double digits statewide?

Yes I seriously believe that if election was held today or if the economy does not improve by November that Biden would defeat Trump by eight points nationwide which would lead to Biden leading by 10 to 12 in Virginia. That is not unreasonable to think.

Just like it wouldn't have been unreasonable to think that Sanders vs Trump without the corona economy would have been a heavily contested state and probably wouldn't have been called until all of Nova came in.

[jamestroll]

You seriously believe in the fairy tale that Biden will win by double digits statewide?

Northam almost hit 10 points in 2017, and Kaine won by considerably more than 10 points in 2018. I don't really see what is far-fetched about a 10+ point Biden win in Virginia of all places. Considering Trump only got 44.41% in 2016, and Virginia has clearly shifted more to the left since then, it's a pretty reasonable prediction.

Thank you!

And I am making it clear that it is my prediction as of now.

If these premature reopenings do not cause a surge in cases and the economy comes roaring back I could easily see Trump winning the popular vote by 1% by claiming he rescued the nation from the virus and restored the economy. In that case Biden carrying VA by 2 to 4%. It will be to the left of the nation but not overwhelmingly so.

And SirWoodbury should know that I may be the only VA Democrat on this forum who believes that the path for a Republican to win statewide exists here.

[jamestroll]

I will support Jennifer Carroll Foy for now.

[jamestroll]

I know 45 day early voting was passed and signed by Northam. I do not believe it applies this year. But maybe for the 2021 elections?

[jamestroll]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/499736-virginia-democrat-jennifer-carroll-foy-announces-gubernatorial-campaign

Jennifer Carroll Foy is officially in!

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/JennMcClellanVA/status/1273572239292731393

State Senator McClellan is running for governor.

I will still support Carroll Foy for now.

[jamestroll]

Former State Senator, Bill Carrico, is considering a 2021 Gubernatorial bid for Virginia Governor.

So the current two likely Republicans for Virginia Governor are Amanda Chase (lol!) and now Carrico who walked out on a Muslim prayer.

[jamestroll]

https://www.pilotonline.com/government/virginia/vp-nw-andria-mcclellan-lieutenant-governor-announces-20200722-yq2qf7hqzfg5pb6qavdhlnfrkm-story.html

The fact that so many Dems want to run is a good early sign. Both Gov and Lt Gov seem like they'll be real races.

I don't think I know any GOP operative in the state who thinks they have a real shot at any of the three posts, even during a Biden presidency. The damage done in the DC and Richmond suburbs is just too significant.

At this point I even think Lee Carter could win a statewide race.

Right now I have VA-Gov as Solid Dem and Lt. Gov and Attorney General as Lean Dem.

[jamestroll]

If T-Mac jumps in, he definitely has this in the bag. I very much like him and think he was a great governor. But I also find Jennifer Carroll Foy a very inspiring candidate, who could make history by becoming to first black woman as governor. Should T-Mac actually get in, maybe they can strike a deal and have her run for lieutenant governor instead, with T-Macs support. In 2025, she could run to replace him. She's still in her early 40s and could get some additional experience in the second spot.

IMHO Jennifer Carroll Foy is not any better than the other two state legislators already running for Lt. Governor, Hala Ayala and Elizabeth Guzman.

Interestingly, all 3 women were elected in 2017. They all live in Prince William County, in the outer suburbs of DC. They live in neighboring districts and according to VPAP, all have Woodbridge addresses.

I really wish all three of those delegate seats wouldn't be open and wish at least two of them would run for re-election.
 
They seem to be reach seats for the GOP. Especially under Biden.

[jamestroll]

The only ratings I see for VA Gov 2021 are either Safe D or Safe Gop pickup.

While I believe democrats will hold on to it, we should stop pretending Amanda Chase will be the nominee for the GOP. It will take effort to hold the office.

[jamestroll]

Great,

Maybe we can stop pretending Amanda Chase will be the nominee. We will have to work harder under Biden to hold VA-Gov but we can certainly do it.

[jamestroll]

Safe D -> Safe D

VA Democrats are pros at downplaying expectations, though. They’ll spin a victory here as some major upset and great news for Democrats going into 2022 even though they were never going to lose the race under any circumstances.

It is a legitimate concern that Virginia Beach may swing heavily GOP under a Biden presidency and if the rural part of Virginia has very high turn out and turnout in low in Nova and Richmond metro that the GOP could sneak in a statewide office in 2021.

I am very worried about Democrats losing VA-gov in 2021.

[jamestroll]

We must be cautious with the VA Ratings for 2021. The anti-mask sentiment in rural white Virginia is very large. If they all turn out in forces they could well win the elections in 2021.

When Virginia is called for Biden this November, I do fear that there will be multiple Charlottevilles incidents and acts of violence from the right wing across the state. Possibly even invading Richmond.

[jamestroll]

He's the sort of candidate who could be Virginia's Hogan during a Biden presidency.

Virginia is not as Democratic as Maryland.

In the 2021 elections it is not unreasonable to think that rural turnout will remain surged under Biden, that Virginia Beach will show a strong GOP vote and that turnout could be depressed in Nova and Richmond.

Still,

If the Democratic base turns out they will win.

[jamestroll]

https://wtop.com/virginia/2020/09/democrat-fairfax-announces-bid-for-virginia-governor/

Justin Fairfax is making it official. I'm mildly surprised he's still going through with his bid.


All the local news articles and radio sound bites are mentioning the sexual assault allegations, so I'm not too worried about him winning, but it's really a bad look for the Commonwealth that he continues to serve as Lt. Governor and attend Democratic events.

I wish people would stop pretending VA Gov 2021 is "Safe D".

But it is not "safe r" either just because of Biden midterm or something like that.

Also Glenn Davis has started his campaign for Lt. Governor. If he got the nomination he would have a decent chance statewide.