VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[President Johnson]

Fairfax should resign after credible rape allegations and be subject to a serious investigation.

Anyway, go T-Mac!

[President Johnson]

Hopefully T-Mac jumps into this race for governor. He's a big FF, who will not just restore honor to the office, he also did a great job in his first term.

[President Johnson]

Fairfax self-immolates.

https://twitter.com/FairfaxJustin/status/1234294479563128834

You absolutely love to see when someone says that a black politician is the "son" of a white politician... absolutely horrible look with zero historical appreciation. I'd gladly take another McAuliffe term over this buffoon.

The guy should immediately resign from office. How someone supposed to hold office and run for even higher officer when there are serious charges of rape? Come on, man.

[President Johnson]

TMac said yesterday he'll decide after November, presumably in case Biden wins and offers him Commerce or something.

Hope he runs. Go TMac! He would also make a great Chief of Staff for President Biden. I think that or commerce would be excellent positions for him.

[President Johnson]

T-Mac will win this if he wants. I think he'll wait until after the November election and see what happens. If Biden is elected, he will probably consider his options on how the state of the race is and which, if any, job is offered to him. He'd make a great Chief of Staff, Treasury or Commerce secretary.

[President Johnson]

McAuliffe, and then give Northam a second term after that.

The one term limit should be abolished. It's a relic from the 19th century, where governors often had a weak position in many southern states. All other states have changed the law, Virginia is the only one left. Along with Vermont and New Hampshire, who have two year terms (which hardly makes sense).

[President Johnson]

T-Mac will win this if he wants. I think he'll wait until after the November election and see what happens. If Biden is elected, he will probably consider his options on how the state of the race is and which, if any, job is offered to him. He'd make a great Chief of Staff, Treasury or Commerce secretary.

I actually think running McAuliffe is more important to VA Dems if Biden wins.  He's literally the only person who has won VA-GOV with a president of the same party in the 50 years since the Solid South days.  That's quite a calling card. 

Fair point, but the Virginia of 2013 was different from what the 2021 one is going to be. A more blue state for that matter. It was a unique feat back then, though it's noteworthy the libertarian candidate drew over 6% of the vote at the time and T-Mac ecked out a narrow 47.8-45.2% win. A win is a win, but the race may have gone differently in a binary choice.

[President Johnson]

McAuliffe, and then give Northam a second term after that.

The one term limit should be abolished. It's a relic from the 19th century, where governors often had a weak position in many southern states. All other states have changed the law, Virginia is the only one left. Along with Vermont and New Hampshire, who have two year terms (which hardly makes sense).

I agree. Also, eliminate these stupid odd year elections at state and municipal levels.

Yes, they should move to midterm years, as Los Angeles as done by moving the mayoral election from 2021 into 2022, extending Garcetti's current term.

[President Johnson]

If the primary was between the three candidates we have now what would people's predictions be? My guess would be:
Foy:41
Herring:32
Fairfax:27

I think Herring would win by a narrow margin and Fairfax do much worse. If T-Mac jumps in, he wins handily.

[President Johnson]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/499736-virginia-democrat-jennifer-carroll-foy-announces-gubernatorial-campaign

Jennifer Carroll Foy is officially in!

Endorsed if T-Mac doesn't run.

[President Johnson]

Having a competitive Democratic primary may signal T-Mac isn't jumping in? I think he may be looking forward to the presidential election and see what happens. If Uncle Joe is elected, and it seems to become more likely by the day, T-Mac may be angling for a job in a Biden Administration. Both get along very well, have similar stances and T-Mac is a skillful politician with experience in federal and state politics as well as business. I could see him as Chief of Staff in a Biden White House or at the Secretary of Commerce.

If he doesn't run, Jennifer Carrol seems to be a great candidate. She would finally be the first African American woman as governor, and of a freedom state with it!

[President Johnson]

Having a competitive Democratic primary may signal T-Mac isn't jumping in? I think he may be looking forward to the presidential election and see what happens. If Uncle Joe is elected, and it seems to become more likely by the day, T-Mac may be angling for a job in a Biden Administration. Both get along very well, have similar stances and T-Mac is a skillful politician with experience in federal and state politics as well as business. I could see him as Chief of Staff in a Biden White House or at the Secretary of Commerce.

If he doesn't run, Jennifer Carrol seems to be a great candidate. She would finally be the first African American woman as governor, and of a freedom state with it!

Agreed, I think McAuliffe will probably wait and see what happens with the presidential election. I think McAuliffe would prefer a job in the Biden administration over being governor. But, if Biden loses, or McAuliffe isn’t offered a job in the Biden administration, I think he’ll run for Governor. McAuliffe can afford to wait on announcing a bid for Governor, given his name recognition.

Yeah, T-Mac announcing a run may even force some candidates out or switch to the lieutenant governor race and prepare for 2025 as such. Carroll is pretty young, she could easily wait for another four years and serving as number two in the meantime.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/halaayala/status/1282964803904876550?s=21

Her and Jennifer Carroll Foy elected would be kinda interesting; a female African American governor and Afro-Latina lieutenant governor. But I'd like it!

[President Johnson]

VPAP has a nice visual on the fundraising of all of the gubernatorial candidates (official accounts and PACs). It shows the money raised in the first half of 2020, and their cash on hand as of June 30.

I can't post the link, but here's the data:

Terry McAuliffe: $1,689,000 raised, $1,594,000 on hand

Jennifer Carroll Foy: $811,000 raised, $696,000 on hand

Jennifer McClellan: $490,000 raised, $411,000 on hand

Amanda Chase: $227,000 raised, $191,000 on hand

Mark Herring: $24,000 raised, $392,000 on hand

Justin Fairfax: $19,000 raised, $85,000 on hand

Bill Carrico: $0 raised, $7,000 on hand.



For me, the big takeaway is that I have do not have to fear Justin Fairfax getting the Dem nomination, even with a split field. While some Dems are willing to tolerate him and invite him to events now, he is not seen as a credible candidate for governor.

McAuliffe hasn't announced though?

Mark Herring having raised 24k $ as a sitting state AG is kind of embarrassing compared to state legislators with little name rec who raised sums up to 30+ times as much.

Yeah, it's a bad look for Herring's chances.

That being said, I think his candidacy has been dead ever since the blackface scandal. In a state with as many potential candidates as Virginia, I think he's vastly overstated his own political profile.

He'd have a decent chance at holding onto the AG spot for at least another term, but his mind is clearly set on the Governor's office. If he stuck around for another 4 years, there's a chance that his efforts as AG could rehabilitate his image.

Instead, he's going to crash and burn out of the Governor's primary, never to be heard of again.

I could see him drop out and run for governor again if T-Mac makes an entry.

Glad to see Fairfax is doing poorly and Carroll Foy has great numbers. Go, Jennifer!

[President Johnson]

If T-Mac jumps in, he definitely has this in the bag. I very much like him and think he was a great governor. But I also find Jennifer Carroll Foy a very inspiring candidate, who could make history by becoming to first black woman as governor. Should T-Mac actually get in, maybe they can strike a deal and have her run for lieutenant governor instead, with T-Macs support. In 2025, she could run to replace him. She's still 38 years and could get some additional experience in the second spot.

[President Johnson]

Actually a smart move by Herring, who did very poorly in raising money, according to the numbers posted earlier in this thread.

If T-Mac enters, I hope Jennifer Corroll Foy cuts and deal with him runs for the second spot instead. T-Mac in exchange should endorse her candidacy and offer support to succeed him after his second term.

[President Johnson]

He's the sort of candidate who could be Virginia's Hogan during a Biden presidency.

Virginia is not as Democratic as Maryland.

In the 2021 elections it is not unreasonable to think that rural turnout will remain surged under Biden, that Virginia Beach will show a strong GOP vote and that turnout could be depressed in Nova and Richmond.

Still,

If the Democratic base turns out they will win.

In November 2013, T-Mac won despite Obama being at the low point of his entire presidency in terms of approvals at time. This was also the first time in decades the party of the White House won the Virginia governorship. And the state is bluer today as it was the case back then. I wouldn't say it's "Safe Democratic", but T-Mac should win the general election in a Biden presidency comfortably. Also appears Republicans don't have the strongest bench here.