VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[Woody]

I remember some people saying that Virginia could flip back GOP because the GOP held the Sheriff's office in Loudoun County, kept a Fairfax County Board of Supervisors seat, and the total legislative vote in Virginia Beach leaned Republican.

As if candidate quality and local politics does not matter. It still does... but every major indicator shows that Biden will win the state by around 10 or more in November and even in a Biden Administration the GOP has very little chance of picking up the gubernatorial seat.

You seriously believe in the fairy tale that Biden will win by double digits statewide?

[jamestroll]

I remember some people saying that Virginia could flip back GOP because the GOP held the Sheriff's office in Loudoun County, kept a Fairfax County Board of Supervisors seat, and the total legislative vote in Virginia Beach leaned Republican.

As if candidate quality and local politics does not matter. It still does... but every major indicator shows that Biden will win the state by around 10 or more in November and even in a Biden Administration the GOP has very little chance of picking up the gubernatorial seat.

You seriously believe in the fairy tale that Biden will win by double digits statewide?

Yes I seriously believe that if election was held today or if the economy does not improve by November that Biden would defeat Trump by eight points nationwide which would lead to Biden leading by 10 to 12 in Virginia. That is not unreasonable to think.

Just like it wouldn't have been unreasonable to think that Sanders vs Trump without the corona economy would have been a heavily contested state and probably wouldn't have been called until all of Nova came in.

[Virginiá]

You seriously believe in the fairy tale that Biden will win by double digits statewide?

Northam almost hit 10 points in 2017, and Kaine won by considerably more than 10 points in 2018. I don't really see what is far-fetched about a 10+ point Biden win in Virginia of all places. Considering Trump only got 44.41% in 2016, and Virginia has clearly shifted more to the left since then, it's a pretty reasonable prediction.

[jamestroll]

You seriously believe in the fairy tale that Biden will win by double digits statewide?

Northam almost hit 10 points in 2017, and Kaine won by considerably more than 10 points in 2018. I don't really see what is far-fetched about a 10+ point Biden win in Virginia of all places. Considering Trump only got 44.41% in 2016, and Virginia has clearly shifted more to the left since then, it's a pretty reasonable prediction.

Thank you!

And I am making it clear that it is my prediction as of now.

If these premature reopenings do not cause a surge in cases and the economy comes roaring back I could easily see Trump winning the popular vote by 1% by claiming he rescued the nation from the virus and restored the economy. In that case Biden carrying VA by 2 to 4%. It will be to the left of the nation but not overwhelmingly so.

And SirWoodbury should know that I may be the only VA Democrat on this forum who believes that the path for a Republican to win statewide exists here.

[Left Wing]

If the primary was between the three candidates we have now what would people's predictions be? My guess would be:
Foy:41
Herring:32
Fairfax:27

[President Johnson]

If the primary was between the three candidates we have now what would people's predictions be? My guess would be:
Foy:41
Herring:32
Fairfax:27

I think Herring would win by a narrow margin and Fairfax do much worse. If T-Mac jumps in, he wins handily.

[Oryxslayer]

If the primary was between the three candidates we have now what would people's predictions be? My guess would be:
Foy:41
Herring:32
Fairfax:27

I think Herring would win by a narrow margin and Fairfax do much worse. If T-Mac jumps in, he wins handily.

Yeah if Foy was out then Fairfax probably does better since there is now 'some' base that would turn to him. With Foy in her NOVA+AA network ensures anyone would might consider Fairfax has better options.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

McAuliffe, and then give Northam a second term after that.

The one term limit should be abolished. It's a relic from the 19th century, where governors often had a weak position in many southern states. All other states have changed the law, Virginia is the only one left. Along with Vermont and New Hampshire, who have two year terms (which hardly makes sense).

I agree. Also, eliminate these stupid odd year elections at state and municipal levels.

Off year elections are beyond stupid. They are a relic from the old Dixiecrat days, probably to make sure that Republicans winning their states in presidential years would not effect their down ballot races. Also, VA nominates Supreme Court Justices by the legislature, not the Governor. Those 2 relics of the past need to be repealed.

[jamestroll]

I will support Jennifer Carroll Foy for now.

[Left Wing]

If the primary was between the three candidates we have now what would people's predictions be? My guess would be:
Foy:41
Herring:32
Fairfax:27

I think Herring would win by a narrow margin and Fairfax do much worse. If T-Mac jumps in, he wins handily.

I disagree. Herring is known nationwide as "that attorney general who also did blackface". I think Virginia dems will want to move past the 2019 crisis.

[Alben Barkley]

McAuliffe, and then give Northam a second term after that.

The one term limit should be abolished. It's a relic from the 19th century, where governors often had a weak position in many southern states. All other states have changed the law, Virginia is the only one left. Along with Vermont and New Hampshire, who have two year terms (which hardly makes sense).

I agree. Also, eliminate these stupid odd year elections at state and municipal levels.

Yes, they should move to midterm years, as Los Angeles as done by moving the mayoral election from 2021 into 2022, extending Garcetti's current term.

I believe Kentucky is considering this as well?  In any case, odd year elections, 2 year terms , and 1 term limits for governors all have a very 19th century vibe.   

Odd year elections tend to slow national trends.  Now that the party gaining ground controls the legislature in both states, I wonder if we will see them send amendments to the voters?  Kentucky considered moving gubernatorial elections to presidential years, but the proposal got shelved in 2018.

Thank god for that.

I am not exaggerating when I say an untold number of lives have been saved because Beshear rather than Bevin is Governor of Kentucky right now.

Anyway, I imagine McAuliffe will easily win the VA governor race if he chooses to run again. Which looks likely as he says it's a "strong possibility:"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/coronavirus-virginia-governors-race/2020/05/10/94ef7a9e-90d6-11ea-9e23-6914ee410a5f_story.html

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If the primary was between the three candidates we have now what would people's predictions be? My guess would be:
Foy:41
Herring:32
Fairfax:27

I think Herring would win by a narrow margin and Fairfax do much worse. If T-Mac jumps in, he wins handily.

I disagree. Herring is known nationwide as "that attorney general who also did blackface". I think Virginia dems will want to move past the 2019 crisis.

Lol, no one even knows who Herring is outside of Virginia. 

[Left Wing]

If the primary was between the three candidates we have now what would people's predictions be? My guess would be:
Foy:41
Herring:32
Fairfax:27

I think Herring would win by a narrow margin and Fairfax do much worse. If T-Mac jumps in, he wins handily.

I disagree. Herring is known nationwide as "that attorney general who also did blackface". I think Virginia dems will want to move past the 2019 crisis.

Lol, no one even knows who Herring is outside of Virginia. 

I don't know, the nightly news covered the 2019 crisis extensively. They joked about it on SNL. Every angle of it was covered by the news. I don't think most people would remember the name but they would remember that the attorney general also did blackface.

[Panda Express]

Hold on, the dude's name is Fairfax? Really? So now we're just blatantly pandering to the most populous counties? Are we going to run Billy Maricopa in Arizona now?

[NewYorkExpress]

I would expect, win or lose this year state Democrats try to push someone like Elaine Luria or Abigail Spanberger into the race.

I also think Virgina is a better pickup opportunity for Republicans than New Jersey is, if only because Biden will win Virginia by less than he will New Jersey (I give him roughy 8-11 points in Virginia, as opposed to 13-15 points in New Jersey).

That said, unless Herring (I can't imagine African Americans in this day and age voting for someone for who admitted to wearing blackface) or Fairfax (Democrats both statewide and nationally would abandon him fairly quickly if he won the nomination) were the nominee, Democrats should still win.

[Non Swing Voter]

I remember some people saying that Virginia could flip back GOP because the GOP held the Sheriff's office in Loudoun County, kept a Fairfax County Board of Supervisors seat, and the total legislative vote in Virginia Beach leaned Republican.

As if candidate quality and local politics does not matter. It still does... but every major indicator shows that Biden will win the state by around 10 or more in November and even in a Biden Administration the GOP has very little chance of picking up the gubernatorial seat.

You seriously believe in the fairy tale that Biden will win by double digits statewide?

Fairytale?  Really?  Have you not been paying attention to Virginia elections recently.  Hillary won it by 5 yes.  But they didn't nominate Sanders or Hillary this year.  They nominated a strong candidate.  Did you not see the epic turnout in Virginia and how Biden handily won?  Were you not aware of Northam's near double digit victory or Trump's abysmal approval rating here?  How is it a fairytale to think that Biden will improve 5 points on Hillary in a better national environment for Democrats, in a state that's clearly trending D.  Without Comey's shenanigans Hillary probably would have won by a slightly larger margin too, closer to Northam's.  But Virginia doesn't have early voting so everyone voted after his little stunt.

[jamestroll]

I know 45 day early voting was passed and signed by Northam. I do not believe it applies this year. But maybe for the 2021 elections?

[Mycool]

I would expect, win or lose this year state Democrats try to push someone like Elaine Luria or Abigail Spanberger into the race.

I also think Virgina is a better pickup opportunity for Republicans than New Jersey is, if only because Biden will win Virginia by less than he will New Jersey (I give him roughy 8-11 points in Virginia, as opposed to 13-15 points in New Jersey).

That said, unless Herring (I can't imagine African Americans in this day and age voting for someone for who admitted to wearing blackface) or Fairfax (Democrats both statewide and nationally would abandon him fairly quickly if he won the nomination) were the nominee, Democrats should still win.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that with Herring in particular. He had deep relationships with African American leaders and voters in the state, and his admission came first to the black caucus in the VA legislature. I don’t think he will (or should) be the nominee, but I wouldn’t count him out tbh.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I would expect, win or lose this year state Democrats try to push someone like Elaine Luria or Abigail Spanberger into the race.

I also think Virgina is a better pickup opportunity for Republicans than New Jersey is, if only because Biden will win Virginia by less than he will New Jersey (I give him roughy 8-11 points in Virginia, as opposed to 13-15 points in New Jersey).

That said, unless Herring (I can't imagine African Americans in this day and age voting for someone for who admitted to wearing blackface) or Fairfax (Democrats both statewide and nationally would abandon him fairly quickly if he won the nomination) were the nominee, Democrats should still win.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that with Herring in particular. He had deep relationships with African American leaders and voters in the state, and his admission came first to the black caucus in the VA legislature. I don’t think he will (or should) be the nominee, but I wouldn’t count him out tbh.

Yeah Herring's offenses are much more light than Northam, whose grave is in part so deep because he repeatedly waffled on the charge. Herring got out in front, admitted it proactively, and it subsided into a relative non-story pretty quickly.

Also in a general who is going to credibly attack Herring for wearing blackface in college? VA AA voters aren't going to take bottom-barrel bait from a typical white Republican over this and what non-white Republicans are there who can weaponize this effectively. Who is going to lead that charge... EW Jackson?

[One Term Floridian]

Anyone but Fairfax, but I strongly prefer T-Mac and hope he jumps in. If not, Herring.

[progressive85]

Tom Perriello should be the next Governor of Virginia.

[Virginiá]

Tom Perriello should be the next Governor of Virginia.

Yeah, it would be nice to step outside former governors or any of the current executives right now. Fairfax is an absolute non-starter, and while Herring's doesn't seem as bad, it'd still be nice for VA to have a new governor who didn't do black face. FFS.

[Oryxslayer]

Tom Perriello should be the next Governor of Virginia.

Yeah, it would be nice to step outside former governors or any of the current executives right now. Fairfax is an absolute non-starter, and while Herring's doesn't seem as bad, it'd still be nice for VA to have a new governor who didn't do black face. FFS.

Which is why Carroll-Foy is running. Perriello, by this point, is really old news.

[NewYorkExpress]

I would expect, win or lose this year state Democrats try to push someone like Elaine Luria or Abigail Spanberger into the race.

I also think Virgina is a better pickup opportunity for Republicans than New Jersey is, if only because Biden will win Virginia by less than he will New Jersey (I give him roughy 8-11 points in Virginia, as opposed to 13-15 points in New Jersey).

That said, unless Herring (I can't imagine African Americans in this day and age voting for someone for who admitted to wearing blackface) or Fairfax (Democrats both statewide and nationally would abandon him fairly quickly if he won the nomination) were the nominee, Democrats should still win.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that with Herring in particular. He had deep relationships with African American leaders and voters in the state, and his admission came first to the black caucus in the VA legislature. I don’t think he will (or should) be the nominee, but I wouldn’t count him out tbh.

Yeah Herring's offenses are much more light than Northam, whose grave is in part so deep because he repeatedly waffled on the charge. Herring got out in front, admitted it proactively, and it subsided into a relative non-story pretty quickly.

Also in a general who is going to credibly attack Herring for wearing blackface in college? VA AA voters aren't going to take bottom-barrel bait from a typical white Republican over this and what non-white Republicans are there who can weaponize this effectively. Who is going to lead that charge... EW Jackson?

It might not be a credible line of attack in a general election, but against someone like Jennifer Carroll Foy or Levar Stoney (both of whom are African American), it would be a credible line of attack in the primary.

[Blair]

It's an absolute scandal that Fairfax is still in office & that he hasn't been impeached- the allegations against him were extremely substanial & irrc he failed in his efforts to sue the outlet that reported the interviews.

If he was somehow the nominee I'd not vote for him & I'm sure if he does run people are going to have very easy work in a primary.

I was curiouis what he was doing & it's hilarous to see he's been reduced to writing public letters to Northam about covid as he's being completely ignored by the Governor. Again the biggest rise in politics in the last decade is the lack of shame...

I also found this quote from Fairfax which frankly seems quite insulting...

If you take some of these smear tactics and campaigns into the black church, they’ll be shut down immediately because that’s not what people want to see,” he said.

https://wamu.org/story/19/12/20/virginias-lt-governor-justin-fairfax-is-running-for-governor-despite-sexual-assault-allegations/