VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

let's get a megathread going for what became an unexpectedly interesting race this past year

After a year where he was credibly accused, twice, of sexual assault, Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax announced on the Washington-area NPR syndicate that he is planning on running for Governor in 2021.

Virginia’s Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax Is Running For Governor Despite Sexual Assault Allegations - Daniella Cheslow, WAMU

Herring is, as far as I can tell, still is planning on running for gov as well (he announced in late 2018 and said he was still planning on it in February in the midst of... the scandal)

It'll be fun seeing what happens in a Herring vs. Fairfax cagematch and if anybody makes the jump from the HoD or Senate to run. Also will be interesting to see how a state party which hasn't held unilateral control in decades handles this very bizarre race.

Final note:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1208066613158842368



link to original survey courtesy of Drew

[scutosaurus]

Wow, a Democrat who I would actually vote Republican against without hesitation or reservation. A rare find!

[junior chįmp]

Pierrelo could probably run and win in a split Dem primary against Herring and Fairfax

[brucejoel99]

Pierrelo could probably run and win in a split Dem primary against Herring and Fairfax

Hopefully he will.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

It’s time for BIG LEE (hopefully!)

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1207444937907802112

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1207442587067592705

Simply put Fairfax, and likely Perellio, are gong to be boxed out by the all-star (at least in state Politics terms) democratic bench presently exploring from their positions in the state legislature. Carroll-Foy is a NOVA AA legislator who was swept into her once competitive seat during the 2017 wave. She was one of the metaphorical 'ten' who were heavily recruited, funded, and publicized by the  VA dems who expected to win far less than the wave gave them. McClellan is a long term Richmond area legislator, with a large media presence.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1207444937907802112

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1207442587067592705

Simply put Fairfax, and likely Perellio, are gong to be boxed out by the all-star (at least in state Politics terms) democratic bench presently exploring from their positions in the state legislature. Carroll-Foy is a NOVA AA legislator who was swept into her once competitive seat during the 2017 wave. She was one of the metaphorical 'ten' who were heavily recruited, funded, and publicized by the  VA dems who expected to win far less than the wave gave them. McClellan is a long term Richmond area legislator, with a large media presence.

Herring?

[Former President tack50]

link to original survey courtesy of Drew

Considering Fairfax's main issue is sexual assault, why on Earth do men widely disapprove while women still (narrowly) approve?

If anything you would expect the opposite pattern for a sexual assault scandal.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The VA Dems need to declare war on Fairfax and play super hard ball. Like "blacklisting" anyone who accepts a job with his campaign or promising to back primary challengers against state legislators who endorse him. Make it clear if anyone supports that vile, sick f[inks]ing piece of sh!t in any way, shape or form, they are now an "unperson" who'll have no political future.

[MaxQue]

The VA Dems need to declare war on Fairfax and play super hard ball. Like "blacklisting" anyone who accepts a job with his campaign or promising to back primary challengers against state legislators who endorse him. Make it clear if anyone supports that vile, sick f[inks]ing piece of sh!t in any way, shape or form, they are now an "unperson" who'll have no political future.

The issue is that he has significant support in the Black community. The VA Democratic Party doesn't want and cannot afford to alienate the Black community.

[President Johnson]

Fairfax should resign after credible rape allegations and be subject to a serious investigation.

Anyway, go T-Mac!

[Oryxslayer]

The VA Dems need to declare war on Fairfax and play super hard ball. Like "blacklisting" anyone who accepts a job with his campaign or promising to back primary challengers against state legislators who endorse him. Make it clear if anyone supports that vile, sick f[inks]ing piece of sh!t in any way, shape or form, they are now an "unperson" who'll have no political future.

The issue is that he has significant support in the Black community. The VA Democratic Party doesn't want and cannot afford to alienate the Black community.

Which is another reason why Carroll-Foy is seriously considering a run. If the AA community is presented with two POC's, one with rape allegations and the other without, it's very likely they move en masse to the one without. She also has NOVA appeal to go along with the AA community, a pairing that could be unbeatable in the primary if utilized effectively.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The VA Dems need to declare war on Fairfax and play super hard ball. Like "blacklisting" anyone who accepts a job with his campaign or promising to back primary challengers against state legislators who endorse him. Make it clear if anyone supports that vile, sick f[inks]ing piece of sh!t in any way, shape or form, they are now an "unperson" who'll have no political future.

Has Joe Biden retracted this?

“There is no place for racism in America. Governor Northam has lost all moral authority and should resign immediately, Justin Fairfax is the leader Virginia needs now.”

Has Biden retracted this statement in support of Fairfax?  Or does he "need" Fairfax's support to get him through the primary season so badly that he'll wait until after November, 2020 to throw Fairfax to the wolves?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The VA Dems need to declare war on Fairfax and play super hard ball. Like "blacklisting" anyone who accepts a job with his campaign or promising to back primary challengers against state legislators who endorse him. Make it clear if anyone supports that vile, sick f[inks]ing piece of sh!t in any way, shape or form, they are now an "unperson" who'll have no political future.

Has Joe Biden retracted this?

“There is no place for racism in America. Governor Northam has lost all moral authority and should resign immediately, Justin Fairfax is the leader Virginia needs now.”

Has Biden retracted this statement in support of Fairfax?  Or does he "need" Fairfax's support to get him through the primary season so badly that he'll wait until after November, 2020 to throw Fairfax to the wolves?

That was obviously made before the revelations that Fairfax is a serial rapist. Now that Northam is obviously not resigning it's no longer an issue.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The VA Dems need to declare war on Fairfax and play super hard ball. Like "blacklisting" anyone who accepts a job with his campaign or promising to back primary challengers against state legislators who endorse him. Make it clear if anyone supports that vile, sick f[inks]ing piece of sh!t in any way, shape or form, they are now an "unperson" who'll have no political future.

Has Joe Biden retracted this?

“There is no place for racism in America. Governor Northam has lost all moral authority and should resign immediately, Justin Fairfax is the leader Virginia needs now.”

Has Biden retracted this statement in support of Fairfax?  Or does he "need" Fairfax's support to get him through the primary season so badly that he'll wait until after November, 2020 to throw Fairfax to the wolves?

That was obviously made before the revelations that Fairfax is a serial rapist. Now that Northam is obviously not resigning it's no longer an issue.

Well, he's vouched for Fairfax's character, then says nothing.  It's an issue because Fairfax is actually making moves to run for Governor.

[Pollster]

This far out, I see this coming down to McAuliffe (money, institutional backing) and Carroll-Foy (next generation, grassroots support) with Carroll-Foy having the edge due to gender, racial, and geographic advantages.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This far out, I see this coming down to McAuliffe (money, institutional backing) and Carroll-Foy (next generation, grassroots support) with Carroll-Foy having the edge due to gender, racial, and geographic advantages.

I agree except I'd give the edge to McAuliffe just due to his near universal name recognition and popularity amongst Democrats.

[heatcharger]

If Carroll-Foy can mount a legitimate campaign this could be a fascinating race. But it's not a given at all that she has geographic or racial advantages if Terry McAulliffe actually gets into the race (which is far from certain given he could have a role in a Democratic administration) -- he's perfectly capable of winning in Northern Virginia and she's a completely unproven commodity to black voters in Richmond, Petersburg, Norfolk, etc while T-Mac is well known. Still, without his presence, Herring would do well in NOVA and Fairfax could get those black votes.

A lot of unknowns a year and a half out, and the field will obviously be more clear after the 2020 election.

[Frodo]

This far out, I see this coming down to McAuliffe (money, institutional backing) and Carroll-Foy (next generation, grassroots support) with Carroll-Foy having the edge due to gender, racial, and geographic advantages.

I like her, but Del. Jennifer Carroll-Foy (who has only just won a second term) needs to prove she has statewide appeal by running for a lower-level statewide office like either Lt. Governor or Attorney General before anyone can consider her as a viable gubernatorial candidate.    

[Bidenworth2020]

The VA Dems need to declare war on Fairfax and play super hard ball. Like "blacklisting" anyone who accepts a job with his campaign or promising to back primary challengers against state legislators who endorse him. Make it clear if anyone supports that vile, sick f[inks]ing piece of sh!t in any way, shape or form, they are now an "unperson" who'll have no political future.

Has Joe Biden retracted this?

“There is no place for racism in America. Governor Northam has lost all moral authority and should resign immediately, Justin Fairfax is the leader Virginia needs now.”

Has Biden retracted this statement in support of Fairfax?  Or does he "need" Fairfax's support to get him through the primary season so badly that he'll wait until after November, 2020 to throw Fairfax to the wolves?

That was obviously made before the revelations that Fairfax is a serial rapist. Now that Northam is obviously not resigning it's no longer an issue.

Well, he's vouched for Fairfax's character, then says nothing.  It's an issue because Fairfax is actually making moves to run for Governor.

Biden has an infinitely stronger rapport with the black community (whom I believe you are referencing in his need for help from Fairfax) than Fairfax, who simply support him because they are loyal democrats. So not only is your assertion false, but it also makes no sense from a logistical standpoint

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

snip

Considering Fairfax's main issue is sexual assault, why on Earth do men widely disapprove while women still (narrowly) approve?

If anything you would expect the opposite pattern for a sexual assault scandal.

I'm pretty confident that the race and sex patterns in that poll just reflect the fact that men and whites are more likely to be Republican and non-whites and women are more likely to be Democrats. There are definitely Democrats who disapprove but the majority still approve which is enough to pull women and non-whites from net unfavorable into favorable on average.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It also shows the public's short memory on this stuff. Although the VA Dems refusal to remove Fairfax is a blight on them.

Seriously go ahead and re-read the accusations against Fairfax. It's f[inks]ing VILE stuff, he actually taunted his victims after the fact and mocked them claiming if they deported it he'd be able to get it so that no one believed them. Guy is almost certainly an extreme sociopath.

[Mr. Smith]

Wasn't AG Mark Herring running too?

[Oryxslayer]

Wasn't AG Mark Herring running too?

I think McAuliffe scared him off or cut him a deal. They both kinda share the same base and have a prior working relationship. He should be throwing in his hat soon, of that is Herring's intention. I wouldn't be surprised if he choose a safe re-election for AG rather than the the crowding Democratic Gubernatorial primary.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It also shows the public's short memory on this stuff. Although the VA Dems refusal to remove Fairfax is a blight on them.

Seriously go ahead and re-read the accusations against Fairfax. It's f[inks]ing VILE stuff, he actually taunted his victims after the fact and mocked them claiming if they deported it he'd be able to get it so that no one believed them. Guy is almost certainly an extreme sociopath.

Unless you can bring criminal charges against an elected official, it's not easy to "remove them" from office.  Fairfax is an elected official in his own right; he can be impeached, but he's not been charged with a crime.  

Had he been reported, he would not have been elected to high office, and may well have become a convicted sex offender.  As difficult as it is, society needs to emphasize the need to promptly report these things, as well as go to great lengths to protect people who are doing this.  It is not impossible that someone's political enemies could have engineered such false accusations.  It is also not impossible that Fairfax actually did this stuff, which is pretty awful.