VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[Canis]

Bigfoot

[Nyvin]

He'll lose the GOP primary.

[WD]

Maybe he can keep it within 12 points.

[jamestroll]

Great,

Maybe we can stop pretending Amanda Chase will be the nominee. We will have to work harder under Biden to hold VA-Gov but we can certainly do it.

[Roll Roons]

Great,

Maybe we can stop pretending Amanda Chase will be the nominee. We will have to work harder under Biden to hold VA-Gov but we can certainly do it.

Knowing the VA GOP, they'll hold a convention and make her the nominee.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe D -> Safe D

VA Democrats are pros at downplaying expectations, though. They’ll spin a victory here as some major upset and great news for Democrats going into 2022 even though they were never going to lose the race under any circumstances.

[jamestroll]

Safe D -> Safe D

VA Democrats are pros at downplaying expectations, though. They’ll spin a victory here as some major upset and great news for Democrats going into 2022 even though they were never going to lose the race under any circumstances.

It is a legitimate concern that Virginia Beach may swing heavily GOP under a Biden presidency and if the rural part of Virginia has very high turn out and turnout in low in Nova and Richmond metro that the GOP could sneak in a statewide office in 2021.

I am very worried about Democrats losing VA-gov in 2021.

[Suburbia]

Likely D.

The VA GOP is one of the worst parties in America, next to the DE GOP and the NC GOP.

[jamestroll]

We must be cautious with the VA Ratings for 2021. The anti-mask sentiment in rural white Virginia is very large. If they all turn out in forces they could well win the elections in 2021.

When Virginia is called for Biden this November, I do fear that there will be multiple Charlottevilles incidents and acts of violence from the right wing across the state. Possibly even invading Richmond.

[Adam Griffin]

He has more of a chance at rat-f[inks]ing the party that rat-f[inks]ked him by running as an independent than he does at either winning the Republican nomination or the Governorship as a Republican.

[lfromnj]

Endorsed!

[S019]

He's a better choice than Amanda Chase, but still not that strong. I'm still expecting Comstock to jump in here, as she's probably the strongest possible candidate.

[NewYorkExpress]

Well, if Riggleman wins the nomination, that turns a Safe D race into a Lean/Likely D race.

The Republicans best chance would probably be persuading Eric Cantor to stop being a lobbyist.

[coloradocowboi]

I am so confused why people think McAuliffe has this "in the bag." I think he's the frontrunner, but the party is obviously hurtling left fast on racial justice issues, and he's a white man tied to the Clintons.

If money can buy a primary, why is Bloomberg not the nominee? I still think one of the Jennifers has a chance, and maybe even a better than even chance if the other drops out. Don't underestimate the "representation matters" argument, especially when it's only starting to gain steam not lose it.

[Lognog]

I am so confused why people think McAuliffe has this "in the bag." I think he's the frontrunner, but the party is obviously hurtling left fast on racial justice issues, and he's a white man tied to the Clintons.

If money can buy a primary, why is Bloomberg not the nominee? I still think one of the Jennifers has a chance, and maybe even a better than even chance if the other drops out. Don't underestimate the "representation matters" argument, especially when it's only starting to gain steam not lose it.

Dems are going pretty far left but not VA dems or else Tom Perriello, would have won the nomination in 2017. McAuliffe by far has the most name ID and between the other it's not even close (save Fairfax but he doesn't stand a chance). McAuliffe is still widely respected in the state and any opposition to him will most likely be divided anyways. Also, if it's a post-Biden win national democrats will want to push someone they think will win thus McAuliffe. I wish he wasn't the frontrunner but that's what we have.

Money's value in politics decreases with how much the campaign is visible. So in presidential elections it is less value because people form their opinion outside of ads, contrast that with say a democratic primary for governor, ads make a HUGE difference. And if there is someone who can fund raise it's Tmac.

Him being a white dude certainly doesn't help, but again he has the name ID, the popularity, party support, and money which certainly matters.

[Skill and Chance]

Herring's big mistake was deferring to Northam in 2017.  In retrospect, 3 different people basically passed up a chance to automatically become governor in 2017: Herring by waiting for 2021, Perriello for by not finding the yearbooks before the primary and Gillespie by not finding the yearbooks during the GE. 

[Skill and Chance]

He's the sort of candidate who could be Virginia's Hogan during a Biden presidency.

[S019]

Well, if Riggleman wins the nomination, that turns a Safe D race into a Lean/Likely D race.

The Republicans best chance would probably be persuading Eric Cantor to stop being a lobbyist.

He's the sort of candidate who could be Virginia's Hogan during a Biden presidency.

Have people forgotten that Riggleman has issues, such as his Bigfoot obsession? There's a reason he only barely beat very weak candidate Leslie Cockburn in a seat well to the right of the state. Riggleman is absolutely not the candidate that the VA GOP will nominate if they intend on winning this race, he's simply the candidate who will make sure that they lose by less than 20 points.

[Lognog]

Herring's big mistake was deferring to Northam in 2017.  In retrospect, 3 different people basically passed up a chance to automatically become governor in 2017: Herring by waiting for 2021, Perriello for by not finding the yearbooks before the primary and Gillespie by not finding the yearbooks during the GE. 

Gillespie still wouldn't have won.

But yeah, Perriello did himself in there. Northham won primarily due to his power base in VA beach. He would have been seriously damaged there and in NOVA.

[Lognog]

If theVirginia GOP don't want to get less than 40% of the vote in 2021, then they should go for him.

Nope. It's going to be Amanda Chase. Virginia GOP is one of the worst state GOP's in the nation.

VA GOP is truly a shell of its former self the only party I can think of that resembles it is the AR dem party. They dominated the state, then the second any competition comes along, they sink like a rock in water.

To be fair the VA GOP had a tough hand to begin with. Floods of college white and latinos while Obama woke up VA beach as a real political force in VA. But with Gillespie, Stewart, and Allen they have not been doing themselves any favors

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Well, if Riggleman wins the nomination, that turns a Safe D race into a Lean/Likely D race.

The Republicans best chance would probably be persuading Eric Cantor to stop being a lobbyist.

He's the sort of candidate who could be Virginia's Hogan during a Biden presidency.

Have people forgotten that Riggleman has issues, such as his Bigfoot obsession? There's a reason he only barely beat very weak candidate Leslie Cockburn in a seat well to the right of the state. Riggleman is absolutely not the candidate that the VA GOP will nominate if they intend on winning this race, he's simply the candidate who will make sure that they lose by less than 20 points.

How controversial is Bill Bolling within the state party? He clearly wasn't very cooperative with them in VAGOV 2013 but he never endorsed Biden or Clinton and might be the best-placed Republican in a GE should he get out of the primary.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If theVirginia GOP don't want to get less than 40% of the vote in 2021, then they should go for him.

Nope. It's going to be Amanda Chase. Virginia GOP is one of the worst state GOP's in the nation.

VA GOP is truly a shell of its former self the only party I can think of that resembles it is the AK dem party. They dominated the state, then the second any competition comes along, they sink like a rock in water.

Don't you mean AR here?

[S019]

Well, if Riggleman wins the nomination, that turns a Safe D race into a Lean/Likely D race.

The Republicans best chance would probably be persuading Eric Cantor to stop being a lobbyist.

He's the sort of candidate who could be Virginia's Hogan during a Biden presidency.

Have people forgotten that Riggleman has issues, such as his Bigfoot obsession? There's a reason he only barely beat very weak candidate Leslie Cockburn in a seat well to the right of the state. Riggleman is absolutely not the candidate that the VA GOP will nominate if they intend on winning this race, he's simply the candidate who will make sure that they lose by less than 20 points.

How controversial is Bill Bolling within the state party? He clearly wasn't very cooperative with them in VAGOV 2013 but he never endorsed Biden or Clinton and might be the best-placed Republican in a GE should he get out of the primary.

Not an expert on VA politics, but from what I've heard Bolling is still quite popular and may jump in. Him or Comstock are probably the only Republicans who can win this race.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Herring's smart he'll drop out of the Attorney General's race too. There's no place in statewide politics for someone who wore blackface.

I do wonder what will happen to Northam after his tenure as Governor.

Is he even interested in running for another office?

[President Johnson]

Actually a smart move by Herring, who did very poorly in raising money, according to the numbers posted earlier in this thread.

If T-Mac enters, I hope Jennifer Corroll Foy cuts and deal with him runs for the second spot instead. T-Mac in exchange should endorse her candidacy and offer support to succeed him after his second term.