2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

Last election of 2019 in India is the long delayed TN local body election.  515 Corporation Councillor and 5067 Municipal Councillor will be elected.  It was expected that the DMK bloc will smash the AIADMK bloc.  But early in the count it seems that the DMK bloc has only an small edge over the AIADMK bloc

Thanthi TV has it at

Corporation Councillor (515 in total)
DMK+       155
AIADMK+  121

Municipal Councillor (5067 in call)
DMK+       835
AIADMK=  669
Others        74



DMK claims all sort of rigging by AIADMK and that AIADMK are holding back declarations of DMK victories.

BJP as part of AIADMK alliance has won a good number of seats.

If these are the trends then to some extent this is BAD news for BJP.  The reason is that it continues the trend in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand that the 2019 Modi wave was a one off (in TN and Kerala there was an anti-Modi wave) and that elections will now revert to the mean without the Modi effect.  It also shows that the anti-CAA sentiments does not seem to have hit AIADMK+ bloc.  What this might mean for Delhi and Bihar assembly elections in 2020 is that local issues will dominate in which case AAP might be looking good for Delhi and BJP will be saddled with anti-incumbency directed against JD(U) in Bihar without the Hindu consolidation card to play for CAA.    

[jaichind]

Separate count by News7 broken out by party shows BJP winning a few seats in alliance with AIADMK.

[jaichind]

Thanthi TV has it at

Corporation Councillor (515 in total)
DMK+       162
AIADMK+  134

Municipal Councillor (5067 in call)
DMK+      1177
AIADMK=  967
Others        82

[jaichind]

Polimer TV has a it neck-to-neck and have party breakdown

Corporation Councillor (515 in total)
DMK+       178 (DMK 166 INC 7 MDMK 1 CPI 3 pro-DMK independent 1)
AIADMK+  177 (AIADMK 161 PMK 9 BKP 4 DMDK 3)
AMMK          3
Others         1

Municipal Councillor (5067 in call)
DMK+      1184 (DMK 1047 INC 62 CPI 45 MDMK 13 CPM 9 VCK 5)
AIADMK= 1197 (AIADMK 1020 PMK 79 DMDK 50 BJP 48 pro-AIADMK independents 7)
AMMK         59
NTK             1
Others      152

AIADMK+ is AIADMK-BJP-DMDK-PMK-TMK
DMK+ is DMK-INC-CPM-CPI MDMK-VCK-KDMK



AMMK is actually doing pretty well.  AMMK eating into the anti-AIADMK vote could help explain why the election is so close.

[jaichind]

If is early morning in India now and only Sathiyam TV is reporting results

Still neck-to-neck and most likely will end in neck-to-neck

Corporation Councillor (515 in total)
DMK+       200
AIADMK+  202
Others          3 (most likely all AMMK)

Municipal Councillor (5067 in call)
DMK+       1677
AIADMK=  1556
Others         74 (most of them are AMMK)

[jaichind]

One of the reasons why AIADMK splinter AMMK did not do well at the LS and assembly by-elections were that it was not allocated a common election symbol which meant each AMMK had to promote separate election symbols.  For this election AMMK managed to get a common symbol.  And it is just a picture of old AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa whose death led to an AIADMK split into pro-Sasikala and anti-Sasikala factions with TTV Dhinakaran becoming the leader of AMMK while his aunt and old Jayalalithaa aide Sasikala is in jail for corruption


So the Jayalalithaa  cult lives on in the AMMK election symbol.  AIADMK protested against this symbol by the election commission found no collision between the AMMK symbol and the AIADMK symbol

[jaichind]

Latest from  Sathiyam TV has DMK+ pulling ahead

Corporation Councillor (515 in total)
DMK+       238
AIADMK+  214
Others          3 (most likely all AMMK)

Municipal Councillor (5067 in call)
DMK+       1940
AIADMK=  1730
Others        237 (most of them are AMMK)

[jaichind]

Count almost done Thanthi TV has it at

Corporation Councillor (515 in total)
DMK+       261
AIADMK+  242
Others          3 (most likely all AMMK)

Municipal Councillor (5067 in call)
DMK+       2330
AIADMK=  2165
Others        536 (many of them are AMMK)



Usually the ruling party wins these sort of local elections, at least early into their rule so the fact that DMK+ is marginally ahead is some sort of victory and that DMK+ should have a slight edge in the 2021 assembly elections.  Still the expectation that AIADMK will collapse and be crushed in 2021 seems unlikely to be true. 

The 2019 TN LS elections proved that DMK have survived the death of Karunanidhi to be a viable leading party in TN. The 2019 TN local elections proved that AIADMK have survived the death of Jayalalithaa to be a viable tier one party in TN.  The duopoly of DMK and AIADMK seems set to continue in TN. 

[jaichind]

Polimer TV count which has the parties broken out

Corporation Councillor (515 in total)
DMK+       271 (DMK 247 INC 13 CPI 6 CPM 2 MDMK 2 VCK 1)
AIADMK+  240 (AIADMK 213 PMK 16 BJP 6 DMDK 4 pro-AIADMK independent 1)
AMMK          0
Others         1

Municipal Councillor (5067 in call)
DMK+      2356 (DMK 2110 INC 126 CPI 71 CPM 24 MDMK 16 VCK 6 pro-DMK independents 3)
AIADMK= 2136 (AIADMK 1797 PMK 151 DMDK 94 BJP 87 pro-AIADMK independents 7)
AMMK         95
NTK             1
Others      479



AMMK at 95 Municipal Councillors running by itself is actually pretty impressive.

[jaichind]

Change in ratio of seats since 2011.  BJP gain some extra seats by being in an alliance with AIADMK



AIADMK+ is somewhat behind overall but was able to sweep the Western Kongu Nadu region


AIADMK leader and CM Palaniswamy (aka EPS) is from  Western Kongu  and it seems AIADMK is able to consolidate its position there.  TTV Dhinakaran of AMMK has his base in Southern TN and was able to capture part of the AIADMK base there giving the DMK+ bloc the edge in the rest of TN.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BTW, Canada's NDP leader Jagmeet Singh also seems to be involved in various radical Khalistan  organizations but somehow no one called him out on it during the most recent Canada election.

No one wants to alienate critical Sikh swing voters in the 905, and there are few who'd be won over by such a line of argumentation. Anyone utilizing that line of attack would kiss their hopes of winning Brampton goodbye.

[jaichind]

Ok.  So that is a warp for 2019.  On to 2020 with Delhi, J&K and Bihar assembly elections.