Ohio redistricting thread (user search)

Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on January 11, 2023, 10:38:15 PM

Quote from: Vosem on January 11, 2023, 10:24:47 PM

Cut

Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on January 04, 2023, 11:28:41 PM

One question I have is originally, I thought this new map is in place for 4 years since it failed to get bipartisan support, but it seems like consensus is there will be a redraw for 2024. Can someone explain what’s going on here.

Yes. Under the normal laws, if the state legislature fails to pass a bipartisan map, then the map holds only for 4 years and gets redrawn after 2 cycles. However, the map passed by the state legislature was (repeatedly) overturned by the state Supreme Court, with orders for the legislature to draw a new map. Eventually, after there wasn't time left to redraw the map again and Republicans had made substantial concessions, federal courts stepped in and ordered the map the state legislature had passed used, but only for the 2022 cycle; the old state Supreme Court order to redraw the lines remains in effect for 2024.

Republicans could presumably ask the new state Supreme Court to forgive this obligation (and if they don't meet it, the new state Supreme Court would probably order the current lines reused), but they haven't done so, probably because they expect to pass better, and perhaps substantially better, lines for the GOP before 2024. The agreement in the state House with the Democrats kind of puts all of this into question, because it's kind of inconceivable that Democrats would've agreed to back a Speaker without some sort of redistricting concessions, but the new Speaker was a hardliner on redistricting (vocal 13-2 supporter!) in the recent past, so nobody's sure what's going on. If concessions were made, they were probably made on the state House maps, since the Democrats negotiating have a personal interest in those.

My understanding from before the deal was that after the election the likeliest maps were 12-3, with a sink in Hamilton to go with the Cuyahoga and Franklin ones, but Sykes (especially) and Kaptur (kinda) put into significantly redder seats. That said, Sykes is a former leader of the Ohio state House Democrats and Kaptur has significant ties with congressional Republicans, so both of them might have ways to negotiate. (Peak stupid -- but which I could imagine, and would probably inspire a new redistricting referendum -- is a map where Sykes and Kaptur don't get worse seats, but Hamilton gets cut into pieces to try to doom Landsman, the OH Democrat with the least clout and worst relationship with the GOP).

Ah thanks for this detailed anaylsis.

If Ds redistricting deal was strickly with the state legislature, that would be extremely disappointing given fair map or not, OH legislature isn't a very realistic goal at this point.

Even though it's still crack-able, it seems like the political willpower isn't as strong to crack OH-01 unless Chabot tries to win back the old seat.

OH-09 will def be interesting, especially considering in no maps did the GOP fully doom Kaptur's seat; maybe they just assumed putting her in a right-shifting Trump district would surely mean defeat?

Also idk how much leverage Jordan has, but if he refuses to take in any part of Lucas County, that could be a problem for the GOP.

Finally, does anyone know wtf this map was:

I can't tell if it was a joke or a serious attempt at putting Columbus Ds into a swing seat (even though for practical purposes even this OH-03 would be safe D)

Does anyone have a DRA link for this map?

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