Ohio redistricting thread (user search)
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  Ohio redistricting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Ohio redistricting thread  (Read 88324 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: October 26, 2021, 12:42:20 PM »

Who becomes vulnerable in the GOP if the OH Supreme Court rejects the GOP congressional maps and orders a fair redraw. I would guess we have something like 10-5 R with OH-1 as a Cincy D vote sink while OH-12 goes from red to leaning D along with OH-13 or 14 becoming a D leaning Cleveland suburbs seat.

How realistic is it for the OHSC to even get involved? Are they generally objective or are they full-on GOP hacks themselves?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2021, 10:28:00 AM »

So, surprise surprise, the commission has officially failed to draw a map and congressional mapmaking is headed back to the legislature. What do we think is the most likely scenario now? Is there any chance that Republicans don't go for a four-year map? Will they try to split Hamilton twice and pair Cincinnati with a bunch of rurals, thereby saving Chabot? Will the Ohio Supreme Court get involved and, if so, what will they do?

Aren't there unambiguous, constitutionally binding rules against unnecessary county-splitting?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2021, 10:03:27 AM »

Just draw a 12-3 map that makes the only Dem seats Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus while making everything else at least Trump + 10.  Dems probably wouldn’t even sue on that one.

The Cleveland area should have at least two Democratic seats. 11-4 would be believable as a fair map, though, even if it would still be a huge geographic advantage for the GOP.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2021, 06:18:39 AM »

Would be the biggest self-own if this forced the GOP leadership to work with Democrats and made the maps fairer as a result.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2021, 07:05:58 AM »

If Democrats were smart they would have voted for this map to lock it in for ten years. It had dummymander written all over it.

That's utterly idiotic. The Cincinnati, suburban Columbus, and Dayton seats might trend a couple points Democrat by the end of the decade, but that's not enough to make it a "dummymander". Besides, by that same logic that swingy Akron-based seat will probably trend R.

This is an egregious gerrymander and only an utterly pathetic and ineffectual party would lend it credibility by voting for it. I don't know what the situation will be in 2025, but I'd much rather take another shot at a fair map then (whether through the legislature or the courts) that lock in this awful excuse of a map. Thank God Democrats aren't as spineless as you want them to be.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2021, 09:11:55 AM »

There must be one district fully contained within Hamilton county. Anything else is unacceptable.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2022, 05:47:09 PM »

When's the decision on congressional maps expected?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2022, 04:36:46 PM »

Excellent decision. Glad to see state courts still willing to enforce some degree of democratic accountability, even when the SCOTUS so cravenly shirked this responsibility in  2018.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2022, 12:56:10 PM »

Ohio Democrats (Yuko/Sykes) have proposed a map that has 8 Trump seats and 7 Biden seats (It was 9-6 in 2016). It is effectively a revision of the Senate Dem's previous bill SB 237.



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8cdb62b0-9cc5-425e-8f47-b09922284960

That Northern OH configuration looks godawful tbh. I'd much rather they accepted a 9-6 Biden map as long as the 6 districts were all Biden+4 or more.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2022, 01:00:26 PM »

Ohio Democrats (Yuko/Sykes) have proposed a map that has 8 Trump seats and 7 Biden seats (It was 9-6 in 2016). It is effectively a revision of the Senate Dem's previous bill SB 237.



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8cdb62b0-9cc5-425e-8f47-b09922284960

That Northern OH configuration looks godawful tbh. I'd much rather they accepted a 9-6 Biden map as long as the 6 districts were all Biden+4 or more.

it's called trying to rescue Kaptur Tongue

It's not even about Kaptur! The Toledo district is a bit awkward but nothing too crazy. What they should probably do is recombine the 4 districts in the Northwestern corner.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2022, 01:05:08 PM »

Ohio Democrats (Yuko/Sykes) have proposed a map that has 8 Trump seats and 7 Biden seats (It was 9-6 in 2016). It is effectively a revision of the Senate Dem's previous bill SB 237.



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8cdb62b0-9cc5-425e-8f47-b09922284960

That Northern OH configuration looks godawful tbh. I'd much rather they accepted a 9-6 Biden map as long as the 6 districts were all Biden+4 or more.

it's called trying to rescue Kaptur Tongue

It's not even about Kaptur! The Toledo district is a bit awkward but nothing too crazy. What they should probably do is recombine the 4 districts in the Northwestern corner.

Well to be specific its called trying to Rescue Kaptur and still trying to get 3 D districts from the rest of NE Ohio.

I mean yeah. So Kaptur is not the point.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2022, 07:34:00 AM »



What's the point? They're out of time. Isn't it up to the Court now?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2022, 06:30:06 PM »



Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.



IDK don't commission Dems have a strong incentive to make a deal and lock the map in for the decade?

Yeah, this is actually worth considering, since this map is a huge improvement over the initial one.

I'd still ask for a better district around Toledo, though. That one ought to be at least Biden+5 or so (basically giving it a neutral PVI). If the OHGOP can accept that, I say we have a deal.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2022, 08:29:19 AM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2022, 04:55:08 AM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2022, 01:50:16 PM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??

At this point I think everyone has lost track of where we are.

The federal judge the GOP tried to get involved in the legislative process refused their appeal, at least until emergency is closer at hand. I think that is where we are at.

But what about the OHSC? Weren't they supposed to review the newly passed congressional map?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2022, 02:58:15 PM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??

At this point I think everyone has lost track of where we are.

The federal judge the GOP tried to get involved in the legislative process refused their appeal, at least until emergency is closer at hand. I think that is where we are at.

But what about the OHSC? Weren't they supposed to review the newly passed congressional map?

I thought initially that as well, but it appears unlike in North Carolina where the court had to approve the new maps, in this case the court simply required new maps to be drawn, but did not have to approve them before it takes effect.  Now, whether another lawsuit is pending or if they will rule on the current maps remains to be seen.

Huh, I see. Well, the process should go as quickly as possible, or else we get into a situation where the primary calendar starts being affected.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #17 on: March 18, 2022, 06:44:04 PM »



Holy sh*t this is idiotic. The GOP could potentially have passed an even worse gerrymander and still gotten away with it??

Great job, people!
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2022, 04:04:19 PM »



Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2022, 06:59:12 PM »



Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

Do you have another source for it? The fact it was deleted makes me wonder if it was fake.

If that was legit, then the delay must be about to expire.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #20 on: March 29, 2022, 08:30:03 AM »

Any news about the Congressional front?? There was supposed to be a new lawsuit but for some reason no one seems to be following that.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #21 on: March 29, 2022, 09:13:16 AM »

Yep.



What's the schedule? The links aren't working for me (might be some legal issues with EU regulations).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #22 on: March 29, 2022, 09:27:34 AM »

Yep.



What's the schedule? The links aren't working for me (might be some legal issues with EU regulations).

Evidence within 25 days, petitioners' brief within 10 days of that, respondents' brief within 20 days of that, petitioners' reply within 7 days of that.

2+ months?? That's insane. Either they're gonna end up leaving it on hold and letting the GOPmander go through for this cycle or they'll have to intervene to postpone filings and primaries.

F**king hell.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #23 on: March 29, 2022, 05:29:34 PM »

TBH, it's fine if this map is used for 2022. The House is probably gone anyway. As long as they get a fair map in place for 2024 before O'Connor is replaced by a fascist I'll be happy

So you'd rather just give up seats that are rightfully ours and let the GOP get away with blatantly ignoring a court order just on the faint hope that we might get a fair map in 2024? That's ridiculous.

I have absolutely no idea what the OHSC is thinking here. This case should be open-and-shut. This whole process has been a joke.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2022, 06:34:03 AM »

So given that the Congressional primaries already happened, has the OHSC just totally dropped the ball on the congressional gerrymandering lawsuit?
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