Ohio redistricting thread (user search)
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  Ohio redistricting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Ohio redistricting thread  (Read 88340 times)
GALeftist
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« on: November 06, 2020, 09:35:43 PM »

Ouch. Sorry, Tim Ryan. Can't say I loved you but you were probably better than whatever ghoul is incoming.
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GALeftist
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Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2021, 03:01:20 PM »

Democrats should follow this brilliant logic in their states....New York Democrats won 100% of statewide elections in the past decade so I guess they're entitled to 100% of the seats, correct?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1438470041817735168

Bad news, Kevin McCarthy, but the OHGOP seems to think your seat is rightfully blue.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2021, 07:35:01 PM »

Tomorrow is the deadline for the Congressional map, right?
Yes, the legislature has a deadline of September 30. Since that will obviously not be met, a commission has until October 31 to draw a map. If they fail, then the legislature has until November 30 to pass a temporary (4 year) map.

They're seriously just going skip straight to drawing a 4 year partisan map, aren't they?

This is such a farce
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GALeftist
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Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2021, 10:20:59 AM »

So, surprise surprise, the commission has officially failed to draw a map and congressional mapmaking is headed back to the legislature. What do we think is the most likely scenario now? Is there any chance that Republicans don't go for a four-year map? Will they try to split Hamilton twice and pair Cincinnati with a bunch of rurals, thereby saving Chabot? Will the Ohio Supreme Court get involved and, if so, what will they do?
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2021, 11:08:45 AM »

So, surprise surprise, the commission has officially failed to draw a map and congressional mapmaking is headed back to the legislature. What do we think is the most likely scenario now? Is there any chance that Republicans don't go for a four-year map? Will they try to split Hamilton twice and pair Cincinnati with a bunch of rurals, thereby saving Chabot? Will the Ohio Supreme Court get involved and, if so, what will they do?

Aren't there unambiguous, constitutionally binding rules against unnecessary county-splitting?

Technically I think the amendment passed in 2018 allows Hamilton County to be split twice as long as no actual cities within it are split. A bunch of laser eyes teens on Twitter have taken this to mean that they're going to go for a 13-2 map, but I tend to think that's pretty unlikely.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2021, 12:41:59 PM »

These are revolting. Please do something about this OHSC
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2021, 10:23:31 AM »

Just draw a 12-3 map that makes the only Dem seats Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus while making everything else at least Trump + 10.  Dems probably wouldn’t even sue on that one.

The Cleveland area should have at least two Democratic seats. 11-4 would be believable as a fair map, though, even if it would still be a huge geographic advantage for the GOP.

IMO the part of Franklin not in the third district should anchor another blue district. A truly fair map for me would consist of safe D seats in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati, a likely D seat in northern Franklin and Delaware, tossup seats in Toledo, western Cleveland, and Akron, and Likely R seats in Dayton and Northeast Ohio.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2021, 12:42:38 PM »

Hopefully the OHSC will swiftly strike this down. This is pretty egregious, and I don't see how any court which isn't completely full of hacks could possibly say that this complies with the Ohio constitution.
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GALeftist
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2021, 07:10:33 PM »

Why would only one swing district be expected in NE Ohio? I feel like it makes the most sense from a nonpartisan perspective to put Summit with Portage and the remnants of Cuyahoga with Lorain, thus creating two swing districts in NE Ohio.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2021, 11:29:08 AM »

The Pub friendly court is not going to gerrymander for the Dems under the guise that fairness equals proportionality. Just like the Dem friendly court in NYS operating under the same law is not going to gerrymander for the Pubs using such an algorithm. How many Dems have been arguing that NYS needs to be gerrymandered for the Pubs? You see, this stuff is too subjective, and the stakes too high, and the complexity so great that spin artists have holes to drive through that make the Grand Canyon seem like a grove in a floorboard, for a species as defective as humans to do it. It's time to give it all up and give it to the black box.

Oh, and how about CA? 40% of the seats is like 20 seats for the Pubs. Where are they? How "fair" is that?  The commission is supposed to be fair right? What happened?

It's not even really an issue of gerrymandering for the Democrats imo (if I were gerrymandering for the Democrats, for example, I'd get two safe D seats out of metro Cleveland rather than one safe and two tossups which are trending R). It's more an issue that the COIs just make more sense that way. For example, you need a Safe D eastern Cuyahoga seat which elects the candidate of choice of black voters. That still leaves you with like 475k voters in western Cuyahoga. Where does it make the most sense to put them? The Republican map has them sliced up between the 13th and the 14th, both of which stretch all the way to the Akron metro area, splitting that up as well (along with the 7th, which leaves the Cleveland CSA behind altogether, meaning that the two counties in the Akron metro area are split three ways). All of this when those 475k voters plus the 300-odd k voters in Lorain (which is directly west of Cuyahoga and is a pretty clear COI) is basically the perfect population for another district. It almost draws itself. This has the added benefit of allowing you to keep Summit and Portage together in a coherent district instead of chopping up the Akron metro area so much. Compared to this hypothetical map, what possible benefit is there from the Republican map? The only one I can see is that there is only one competitive district rather than two. This isn't partisan gerrymandering, this is just looking at the Republican map and seeing that it is worse at representing the will of the voters in this area than a hypothetical alternative for the seemingly sole purpose of partisan advantage – in other words, it "unduly advantages" the Republicans. (Similar argument applies to Franklin and Delaware.)
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2021, 09:46:58 PM »

Any chance the map is struck down as unconstitutional?

I'd guess there's probably like a 65% chance it gets struck down? Judging by what O'Connor has been saying
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2021, 11:49:46 AM »

Seems to be looking better and better. I think chances are very good that we get a compact Hamilton County seat and a better configuration in NEOH, perhaps with three winnable seats or at least one that's better than the status quo. They didn't talk about Toledo or Columbus as much as much as I would have liked, but we'll see.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2021, 03:25:29 PM »
« Edited: December 30, 2021, 12:23:24 AM by GALeftist »

So it's pretty clear that Chabot's number is finally up unless the oral arguments are being seriously misinterpreted. That means that the remaining areas of interest are basically Columbus, Toledo, and NEOH. Regarding Columbus, it's common knowledge at this point that Franklin, Delaware, and Morrow are basically perfect for two districts, one of which would be Likely D and one of which would be Safe D, but since the court didn't talk about that very much I don't know if that will come to pass. However, they did discuss NEOH quite a bit. Could something like this work? Erie, Cuyahoga, Lorain, Summit, and Portage combined are pretty good for three districts between them.



Here are the numbers:

OH-11 (Cuyahoga, dark red): Biden+49, Clinton+53, 43.7% Black by CVAP (should easily be enough, hard to get it substantially higher without going out of Cuyahoga)
OH-13 (Summit, Portage, Cuyahoga): Biden+8, Clinton+7
OH-04 (Erie, Lorain, Cuyahoga): Biden+3, Clinton+2

This would keep a safe D OH-11 and create a Lean D OH-13 and tossup OH-04, all of which are trending R. It's important to note that this configuration probably dooms Democrats long-term in Toledo's OH-09; without Erie Trump's going to be winning that seat by at least a few points. No cities are split, and only Cuyahoga County is split. All the districts are under target population by 1000-2000 due to Ohio's dumb rules about what counties can be split, but honestly it should be fine. EDIT: Actually you can split Medina once so you can get the deviation much lower.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2022, 03:40:12 PM »

Hahaha, rip Chabot. Hopefully the OHSC orders a full congressional remap as well and we get another winnable seat out of Cleveland, Columbus, or both.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2022, 12:53:26 PM »

As expected, they cited proportionality in outcomes as part of the justification for ordering the redraw. Also stated it unduly splits Hamilton (Cincinatti Dem seat), Summit (akron Dem seat), and Cuyahoga (probably west county+Lorain Dem seat).

Franklin County is mentioned as well.



It actually specifically mentions that keeping northern Franklin with Delaware would create "a relatively compact northern district that crosses over into Delaware County, which would keep Columbus’s northern suburbs together" (25). We love Maureen O'Connor don't we folks
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2022, 01:25:04 PM »

So who draws the new maps in Ohio and whats the process for it?

Goes back to the legislature, then to the commission if they can't pass anything. If Democrats vote for it I believe the map's good for 10 years with no possibility of redrawing
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2022, 11:11:20 PM »


That Scranton-Erie-Pittsburgh district is a true work of art.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2022, 10:11:41 AM »

So much for Republican gerrymandering. But Dems getting >80% of the districts in Illinois is totally fine. Makes sense.
there's a bill that can be passed if the republicans don't like it.

Exactly. One party wants to ban gerrymandering at a national level, the other doesn't. So Election Guy's argument is totally in bad faith as usual.

Also isn't the whole argument for gerrymandering that it ought to be handled at the state level and that federal standards would be a massive overreach or whatever? This is what handling it at the state level looks like! Ohio's maps violated state law, while Illinois's maps don't. Therefore, Ohio's maps got struck down and Illinois's maps didn't. This is as it should be. Either it's possible to have a coherent federal definition of when district lines are and aren't permissible (in which case why on earth aren't Republicans signing onto a bill outlining this definition?), or it's not, in which case the complaint is nonsense. Can't have it both ways!
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2022, 09:13:19 PM »

In a situation like this where a decent number of Republican lawmakers might lose their seats due to a redraw, there probably isn't a lot of incentive for the legislature to try and draw a map the court would accept anyway. Too many tough decisions and too much animosity from the people who inevitably lose out.

Also I'm not 100% on how it works when the court redraws - is it a 4 year map or a 10 year map? If it's 4 years, then it would make sense as the GOP wouldn't have any incentive to produce an acceptable map as Democrats would probably vote for it and lock it in for the whole decade. Instead, 4 years later, Republicans can just gerrymander again when/if the Ohio Supreme Court becomes more friendly to their interests.

I don't think the SCOH can redraw, at least for state legislative maps. Article XI Section 9(D)(1) of the Ohio Constitution states that "No court shall order, in any circumstance, the implementation or enforcement of any general assembly district plan that has not been approved by the commission in the manner prescribed by this article." I think the danger is that if the commission just keeps spamming obviously biased maps they could be held in contempt but I don't really know how the lack of maps would be resolved in that case. I hope it doesn't come to pass, though.

I've heard many people say that the OHSC also cannot redraw congressional seats itself. Why is this? I don't see any explicit prohibition against it in Article XIX like there is in Article XI.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #19 on: January 22, 2022, 12:15:48 PM »

Seems like the GOP is playing with fire here, O'Connor indicated she wants an actual fair map and I can see the Rs getting held in contempt if they keep trying to rules lawyer after an extremely explicit court order
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #20 on: January 22, 2022, 08:08:19 PM »

What are the odds that the court keeps striking down the maps until they get Democratic buy in?

At the very least I doubt that these maps are allowed to stand. Having 30% of the Democratic seats be within literally 1 point is utterly absurd.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #21 on: January 22, 2022, 08:19:34 PM »

Commission has adopted the Republican plan on a 5-2 vote. The map will last four years, instead of ten.


Wait… How do you know?

I thought this map isn’t much better than the current one.

What’s the breakdown… 12-3?

State legislative, not congressional
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #22 on: February 07, 2022, 05:53:48 PM »



Lmao at this graph
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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*****
Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #23 on: February 07, 2022, 07:41:59 PM »

The Ohio House cancelled the meeting tomorrow for congressional redistricting lmao. Less than a week left
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #24 on: February 07, 2022, 07:51:31 PM »

Ngl, even as a Dem, i think advocating for truly proportional legislative maps in a tilted state like Ohio is kinda messed up since the only way to achieve that is by basically making a Dem gerry.
Ya this push for 'proportionality' in places with GOP-favored geography and 'clean maps' in places with Dem-favored geography is pretty much the number one reason why I don't take Dems seriously when it comes to redistricting reform anymore. I used to think Dems were significantly better than Rs on this issue but now I actually think Dems might be worse (or are at best equal).

I mean, it's in the Constitution. The Court didn't ask for proportionality in the congressional map.
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