Ohio redistricting thread (user search)
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  Ohio redistricting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Ohio redistricting thread  (Read 88342 times)
UncleSam
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« on: June 01, 2021, 10:39:45 AM »

As much as I love to see Democratic fantasies about how Ohio redistributing might go, I personally find it a lot more interesting to consider what kinds of vicious gerrymanders the Ohio GOP will cook up to be ‘within the redistributing amendment’.

What many of the above maps are forgetting is that things like competitiveness, fairness, and cleanliness of lines are not really concerns for the Ohio GOP.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2021, 02:55:35 PM »


The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.


What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County. OH-15 is also only around the same partisanship, too, though with an area that is less D-trending so maybe less risky.

Really don't understand what they intend in Franklin County. They clearly carved out the very most Democratic parts of Franklin County into other districts, but OH-03 is still Biden+20 so still unwinnable for the Republicans, and it puts both OH-04 and OH-15 at risk.

I imported the map, so below is a link to it. I checked the allow editing button. Enjoy.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a7766acd-5fba-47d4-9c95-3d81b100565f





Ngl that monstrosity looks like a potential dummymander in a blue wave year. 6-7 of those districts could easily go Dem in the right environment.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2022, 07:48:13 PM »

Ngl, even as a Dem, i think advocating for truly proportional legislative maps in a tilted state like Ohio is kinda messed up since the only way to achieve that is by basically making a Dem gerry.
Ya this push for 'proportionality' in places with GOP-favored geography and 'clean maps' in places with Dem-favored geography is pretty much the number one reason why I don't take Dems seriously when it comes to redistricting reform anymore. I used to think Dems were significantly better than Rs on this issue but now I actually think Dems might be worse (or are at best equal).
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2022, 07:56:56 PM »

Ngl, even as a Dem, i think advocating for truly proportional legislative maps in a tilted state like Ohio is kinda messed up since the only way to achieve that is by basically making a Dem gerry.
Ya this push for 'proportionality' in places with GOP-favored geography and 'clean maps' in places with Dem-favored geography is pretty much the number one reason why I don't take Dems seriously when it comes to redistricting reform anymore. I used to think Dems were significantly better than Rs on this issue but now I actually think Dems might be worse (or are at best equal).

I mean, it's in the Constitution. The Court didn't ask for proportionality in the congressional map.
This is reasonable and makes this case less egregious. Proportionality is an insane standard but follow-up: how was the horrendous gerrymander of the last decade allowed to stand if there was a proportionality standard?
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2022, 08:01:17 PM »

Ngl, even as a Dem, i think advocating for truly proportional legislative maps in a tilted state like Ohio is kinda messed up since the only way to achieve that is by basically making a Dem gerry.
Ya this push for 'proportionality' in places with GOP-favored geography and 'clean maps' in places with Dem-favored geography is pretty much the number one reason why I don't take Dems seriously when it comes to redistricting reform anymore. I used to think Dems were significantly better than Rs on this issue but now I actually think Dems might be worse (or are at best equal).

I mean, it's in the Constitution. The Court didn't ask for proportionality in the congressional map.
This is reasonable and makes this case less egregious. Proportionality is an insane standard but follow-up: how was the horrendous gerrymander of the last decade allowed to stand if there was a proportionality standard?

The amendment was passed in 2018 by statewide vote, it wasn't retroactive to the current maps.
Got it, so it wasn't the constitution it was the 2018 amendment. Tbh that system is pretty awful - can't they just put up another amendment that would repeal the last one? Seems like a broken system if the requirement is only a bare majority.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2022, 04:26:55 PM »

Aren’t they basically just saying that whatever map gets passed this time around won’t be in place in 2024? Is there any other way to read this?
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2022, 11:27:45 AM »

Wow, these scum Republicans on the commission have no intention of drawing a compliant map. I wish nothing but horrible things on them.
Really lol

Where was this outrage for Illinois Dems

This is so over the top it’s kinda hilarious
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2022, 11:43:25 AM »

Wow, these scum Republicans on the commission have no intention of drawing a compliant map. I wish nothing but horrible things on them.
Really lol

Where was this outrage for Illinois Dems

This is so over the top it’s kinda hilarious

For the umpteenth time, Illinois Democrats didn't even break the law, let alone flagrantly violate court orders multiple times.
Sigh

You can see the exact same outrage in the NC thread if you like, where Rs did not break the law because the law is the exact fking same as it is in IL, just there are partisan actors posing as ‘judges’ on the State Supreme Court. So no this is not a valid response. We all know that the outrage is centered solely on R gerrymanders and it’a basically proven to me that both sides just want maps to be biased in their favor and that Ds do not have the moral high ground on this one the way I thought they did.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2022, 11:13:37 AM »

The problem is that the Ohio constitution also has several other rules that supercede the proportionality one - compactness, county lines requirements, etc. it’s literally impossible to satisfy them all at once.

Hell, the Rs actually did a good faith effort at trying to satisfy them, making a map that voted 54-46 Trump, and the court still turned it down. I don’t blame them for refusing to comply with the process further, the court has shown a basic ignorance of the political geography of Ohio or the mapmaking process in general.
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UncleSam
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2022, 11:21:15 AM »

The problem is that the Ohio constitution also has several other rules that supercede the proportionality one - compactness, county lines requirements, etc. it’s literally impossible to satisfy them all at once.

Hell, the Rs actually did a good faith effort at trying to satisfy them, making a map that voted 54-46 Trump, and the court still turned it down. I don’t blame them for refusing to comply with the process further, the court has shown a basic ignorance of the political geography of Ohio or the mapmaking process in general.

They aren't just ignoring political geography of Ohio but in general they are bringing up partisan fairness measures which just make no sense to use. Partisan symmetry is something to be used in model approaching the square rule or the like. To use such a model when demanding a PR split is beyond absurd.
Agreed, plus it’s a stupid metric anyway (see: CA, MA, WI). The only way I would support such a metric’s use would be if they said partisan representation must align with that of the median of 10,000 randomly generated maps that comply with all other redistricting standards.
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