Ohio redistricting thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Reminder that OH redistricting reform forbids cutting counties more than once unless they are the largest five - in which case they can be cut twice. You are also required to base a district out of those cities large enough to dominate said district (Columbus and Cleveland) and any county between 95% and 105% of a district needs to have a seat based in it (Cincinnati). I also think there are restrictions/bans on parallel cuts (two districts cutting two same counties), but the text is ambiguous in regards to them. There is also minor provisions regarding large locales and how they can't be cut if they are of a significant size, and how one should make an effort to keep them with their surroundings.

The reform is rather strict in it's guidelines, but is lax as far as the gerrymanders observe said guidelines.

That rule, along with the exception to splitting cities applying to only Cleveland and Cincinnati, sounds to me like some real packing and cracking garbage, with emphasis on the former.

Trust me, I know how Ohio Republicans think, and they are is every bit ruthless and shamefaced as their counterparts in North Carolina and Texas about blatant gerrymandering and thinking of any way they can get away with it to maximize their power.

I assure you that the mathematical equation prohibiting splitting cities of over 100,000 unless they're County can support multiple congressional districts is by no means coincidental, as opposed to explicitly planned when the language of this proposal was drafted.

Being able to pass a map with a simple majority was very much explicitly planned as well.

I'd say it's like 95% chance a 4 year map is what ends up getting passed next year, probably with only Republican votes.

Wouldn't it be 85-90%? . If D's flip the Ohio Supreme Court I can't see R's being as stupid as PA R's and not atleast drawing a reasonable map.

Democrats are very unlikely to flip the Supreme Court. And if they do I suspect Republicans would simply try to Bunker down with procedural roadblocks and delays to give them time to flip it back.

How do you figure?  Brunner's a strong candidate running against (IIRC) a pretty weak incumbent.  The other race is a coin-flip, but I think we've got a really strong recruit there too.  I'd argue we're no worse than even money unless I missed something.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hmm I wonder what they draw if the Ohio Supreme court flips, my guess is the GOP tries to bribe the Ds with a 10-5 relatively locked in map and tries to keep Kaptur and Ryan as Safe as possible to persuade the D delegation to vote yes.

If the Ohio Supreme Court flips, I'm not sure why any Democrats would be interested in that tbh.  What leverage would you guys have in that scenario?  I mean, it's not like a court-drawn map would endanger anyone on our side except possibly Tim Ryan (and I get the sense that Democratic state legislators here care more about getting that new HamCo seat than they do about what happens to Ryan, especially since a court-drawn map would probably give us more pickup opportunities elsewhere even if he gets screwed).  

A HamCo seat bribe is more to work if the OH SC doesn't flip and the Republicans want to get certain Democratic legislators (ex: African-Americans) to support a map that somehow screws over both Ryan and Kaptur in order to give the gerrymander the appearance of bipartisan support.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm thinking people are kinda overestimating just how partisan the OH Supreme Court is going to be.

They’re not

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fair map:

Best Ohio map I’ve seen thus far

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is like NC where they seem to just be giving the finger to the State Supreme Court out of spite

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

They f***ing better not put me in Gym Jordan’s district

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County. OH-15 is also only around the same partisanship, too, though with an area that is less D-trending so maybe less risky.

Really don't understand what they intend in Franklin County. They clearly carved out the very most Democratic parts of Franklin County into other districts, but OH-03 is still Biden+20 so still unwinnable for the Republicans, and it puts both OH-04 and OH-15 at risk.

I don’t think Gym Jordan would be able to hold an R+6 seat, especially one rapidly trending D

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

Definitely a gamble, based on timing as well. Will be very well worth it if it works and Connor makes specific requirements. If it doesn't and when the Ohio Supreme court likely flips it could be a massive flop

Nothing ventured, nothing gained

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

Definitely a gamble, based on timing as well. Will be very well worth it if it works and Connor makes specific requirements. If it doesn't and when the Ohio Supreme court likely flips it could be a massive flop

Nothing ventured, nothing gained

Really depends, probably worth hoping with the lawsuit for the congressional map but with regards to the state senate map Dems really should have just taken it. Yes a lawsuit may result in a Safe D instead of a Lean D Dayton district and maybe a safer West Cleveland district by adding Lakewood back in but both of these seats are Biden +5 and Biden +8 and hardly unwinnable for Democrats. On the other hand a redraw could very well risk the 4th winnable Columbus seat.

Hard disagree, these maps are all awful and a non-gerrymandered map can only help in the Columbus area.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I appreciate the Ohio Supreme Court is Pub friendly, but I cannot image how that court could find that OH-01 as drawn is anything other than a text book case of the lines unduly favoring one party. Its butt ugly erosity has absolutely nothing going for it other than illegal Pubmandering. I am amazed the Pubs were that at once stupid and arrogant enough to go there. I guess we will find out the hack quotient of the Ohio high court soon enough. I hope they blow that CD out, if only to set a good example for the NYS high court, that will be charged with applying a remarkably similar NYS redistricting law.

The balance of the map I think is quite bullet proof, and I would note that they even eschewed tri-chopping any counties, including Franklin, thus rendering OH-15 rather more marginal than what would be the case otherwise. They also made OH-09 more marginal than it perhaps needed to be. How selfless of them.

I'm in agreement with you on OH-01. Hamilton County can contain a district within its boundaries. There is no justification beyond partisanship for such a district. I would also argue that the redistricting provisions should require a competitive Akron-based district. That split of Summit County is an abomination. If they'd kept Summit whole and split Medina, I suppose it would be a begrudgingly acceptable district.

As for tri-chops, they did tri-chop Cuyahoga County. OH-14 sneaks in and grabs most of Cleveland's southern suburbs within the county.

Yeah, this map is still a pretty blatant gerrymander.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The inevitable lawsuit has arrived.

https://twitter.com/sophlin229/status/1466066594090692608?s=20

Dems are going to regret this in 2026 when the court is more republican and the rs draw a more aggressive gerrymander

No, they won’t; this could be our last shot at even remotely fair maps here for a generation.  There’s absolutely nothing to lose. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just for clarity of the court rejects the map either fully or in part, who draws the new lines? Does it get thrown back to the legislature or does the court do it? What’s to say the legistlature won’t just do something nasty again?

It is explicit that the State leg lines go back to the commission, with court advice and supervision.

But not explicit for Congressional lines?

Congressional is whatever the court wants, likely a special master

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In a situation like this where a decent number of Republican lawmakers might lose their seats due to a redraw, there probably isn't a lot of incentive for the legislature to try and draw a map the court would accept anyway. Too many tough decisions and too much animosity from the people who inevitably lose out.

Also I'm not 100% on how it works when the court redraws - is it a 4 year map or a 10 year map? If it's 4 years, then it would make sense as the GOP wouldn't have any incentive to produce an acceptable map as Democrats would probably vote for it and lock it in for the whole decade. Instead, 4 years later, Republicans can just gerrymander again when/if the Ohio Supreme Court becomes more friendly to their interests.

I don't think the SCOH can redraw, at least for state legislative maps. Article XI Section 9(D)(1) of the Ohio Constitution states that "No court shall order, in any circumstance, the implementation or enforcement of any general assembly district plan that has not been approved by the commission in the manner prescribed by this article." I think the danger is that if the commission just keeps spamming obviously biased maps they could be held in contempt but I don't really know how the lack of maps would be resolved in that case. I hope it doesn't come to pass, though.

I've heard many people say that the OHSC also cannot redraw congressional seats itself. Why is this? I don't see any explicit prohibition against it in Article XIX like there is in Article XI.

OHSC can certainly redraw the congressional maps, if nothing else

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

Well I don’t think Democrats care about what Republican donors think. I think what maters to them is that Dublin is pretty Democratic and shouldn’t be tacked onto red rurals.

The reason Democrats are fine with it is because Dublin has recently become heavily Democratic and can give us a shot at winning a seat we otherwise might not even with some rurals attached.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

Well I don’t think Democrats care about what Republican donors think. I think what maters to them is that Dublin is pretty Democratic and shouldn’t be tacked onto red rurals.

The reason Democrats are fine with it is because Dublin has recently become heavily Democratic and can give us a shot at winning a seat we otherwise might not even with some rurals attached.

Theres literally no way thats flipping till 2026 if not 2030.

Still a double digit Trump seat.

The State Senate seat, I mean.  A southern Franklin County sans Columbus + Pickaway seat would be a heavier lift.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ohio Redistricting Commission’s Republicans ask Supreme Court to punt decisions on gerrymandered maps past 2022 elections

"Republicans on the Ohio Redistricting Commission asked the state supreme court to issue a ruling on their newly drawn legislative districts by February 11– or potentially stay any decision until after the 2022 general election."

Lol

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

If they decided to go through with this, does the GOP have enough state Senate seats to convict?

They have 25/33 seats in the Senate, so they could lose no more than three votes.

I could see many state senators here taking a lead from DeWine on this. Does he support the effort?

No, he came out against it almost immediately

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

Kunze would get killed

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

Kunze would get killed

She’d probably overperform Trump heavily, like she did in 2020.

Not by even remotely enough to win and that’s if she somehow managed to win the nomination

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

They can't use the old map anyway due to population changes, but least change is a metric even when the number of districts change, it is just less least change. A federal court would presumably use a special master or masters to draw the map.

I'm wondering if the court's conservative lean will lead to a map favorable to Republicans.

Nope

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This whole process was f**king joke.

Yes, although tbh, there were more than a few folks (myself included) who were utterly baffled at the time this commission nonsense was proposed about why the Democrats opted for this rather than just putting a referendum for a truly independent redistricting commission on the ballot.  It was an idiotic decision and I would love to hear the story behind that b/c I am pretty sure the folks involved had to have known better.  I was surprised it wasn’t an even bigger train wreck with the OH SC just rubber-stamping the first Republican gerrymander put in front of them (not that it mattered).

If I had to guess what happened, it’d be that there was behind-the-scenes interference from powerful Cleveland Democrats who didn’t want a map that disregarded safe seat incumbent’s preferences any more than Republicans wanted anything resembling a fair map.  I doubt these folks cared too much what the congressional map looked like when push truly came to shove.  This is all pure speculation, but that’s the only explanation I’ve been able to come up with.  Maybe BuckeyeNut can shed some light on this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I tried using all the tricks of the trade to make as cosmetic as possible a map that effectively leashes the Dems to 3 seats for the balance of the decade. This was the best that I could do.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/35b9498d-b9d2-4d1c-97e5-a5b349bc6372

There are a few issues with this map:

1) My understanding is that Bob Latta very much doesn't want to run against Kaptur (and in fact does not want any of Lucas County in his district) and he has a certain degree of pull in the legislature.  He wants his own little fiefdom untouched even at the expense of flipping Kaptur's seat.  FYI, Latta lives in Bowling Green.  So Lucas County cannot be in Latta's district; that's a big no-no unless Latta changes his mind.  This has been a source of annoyance for national Republicans ever since the first post-Latta redistricting, but luckily for Kaptur, there's really nothing to be done about it.

2) You've double-bunked Jim Jordan (Urbana) and Mike Carey (Columbus) which is a huge no-no.  Yes, in theory there is a new seat Jordan could run in, but he won't want to move  This issue alone would easily be a deal-breaker for this map.  Both of them have pull with different factions in the legislature.

3) You double-bunked Warren Davidson (Troy) and Mike Turner (Dayton).  This is another no-no.  Neither will want to move, although the issue might be moot if Davidson ends up running for Senate.  Also, Davidson has far less pull than Turner, Jordan, Carey, and Latta, so what he wants is probably a lesser consideration.  Even so, the double-bunking would be a problem here as Turner would likely be strongly opposed.

Ultimately, this is a great example of a map that despite being an effective maximalist gerrymander in theory, has virtually no chance of ever being enacted given various incumbent priorities likely outweighing partisan considerations.