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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« on: April 22, 2020, 02:07:27 AM »
« edited: April 22, 2020, 03:09:01 AM by Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9a223f05-99f0-4792-8893-167fdbe0a923
this is my take on the "fair map" concept.



Unlike in previous maps in this thread, Franklin County's surplus population goes into a CD lying south instead of north. The entirety of the doughnut around Columbus is contained in three seats. I also ditched the "Mistake by the Lake" and created a new swing district centered on Lorain County. CD-11 gets rid of the stupid arm down to Akron, and the bulk of this territory goes to the Youngstown district. There are only three true swing districts - the 7th (D+0.23), the 10th (R+2.77), and the 15th (R+3.73). The 5th (D+2.7) might fall in a good GOP year, especially if it is open. Contrary to what one might expect, the more Dem part of Akron being placed in the 14th was done as much for aestetics as it was for partisan reasons, as it just looks cleaner having a lakeshore seat (which also conveniently soaks up the rest of Cuyahoga and all of Summit as was needed, for sake of compactness), and a Canton+southern Summit+Medina seat. This leaves most of Akron with nowhere else to go.
One interesting facet of this map is the fact that it has 4 large rural seats covering 66% of the state's land area.

My general ratings for each of these CDs is as follows: (Tossup/Lean/Likely/Solid)
1: Lean D
2: Solid R
3: Solid D
4: Solid R
5: Lean D
6: Solid R
7: Tossup
8: Solid R
9: Likely R
10: Lean R
11: Solid D
12: Solid R
13: Likely R
14: Lean D
15: Tossup
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2020, 09:51:24 AM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9a223f05-99f0-4792-8893-167fdbe0a923
this is my take on the "fair map" concept.



Unlike in previous maps in this thread, Franklin County's surplus population goes into a CD lying south instead of north. The entirety of the doughnut around Columbus is contained in three seats. I also ditched the "Mistake by the Lake" and created a new swing district centered on Lorain County. CD-11 gets rid of the stupid arm down to Akron, and the bulk of this territory goes to the Youngstown district. There are only three true swing districts - the 7th (D+0.23), the 10th (R+2.77), and the 15th (R+3.73). The 5th (D+2.7) might fall in a good GOP year, especially if it is open. Contrary to what one might expect, the more Dem part of Akron being placed in the 14th was done as much for aestetics as it was for partisan reasons, as it just looks cleaner having a lakeshore seat (which also conveniently soaks up the rest of Cuyahoga and all of Summit as was needed, for sake of compactness), and a Canton+southern Summit+Medina seat. This leaves most of Akron with nowhere else to go.
One interesting facet of this map is the fact that it has 4 large rural seats covering 66% of the state's land area.

My general ratings for each of these CDs is as follows: (Tossup/Lean/Likely/Solid)
1: Lean D
2: Solid R
3: Solid D
4: Solid R
5: Lean D
6: Solid R
7: Tossup
8: Solid R
9: Likely R
10: Lean R
11: Solid D
12: Solid R
13: Likely R
14: Lean D
15: Tossup

Interesting map. I'm surprised that after splitting Franklin County more or less geographically even on an East-West divide that District 3 and 15 are similar in population after adding on all those extra counties, all of which are not rural, such as Fairfield which is fairly populated.

In Northeast Ohio I've always wondered if one could make basically an Akron-Canton district, and then a purely Northeast Ohio District basically running from Youngstown through Portage east and west and then North to the coast with lake in Ashtabula? Maybe I am just in denial about how far places like Trumbull and Mahoning County have shifted, even Beyond their infatuation with Trump in 2016, but I can't help it thinking that those districts would be reasonably split. I would assume that the Akron-Canton District would actually be democratic-leaning, but maybe not. I'm surprised that your version of 14 that basically includes 3 traditionally Democratic counties plus the city of Akron would still only be lean d.

I like connecting Dayton to Springfield and always thought that should be the basis of any District down there. I always thought that little bridge should maybe reach out to Yellow Springs to include the one I think semi liberal hippie Haven in Greene County Wink I was wondering if you considered including the Beavercreek portion of Greene County in the district, maybe as a substitute for that little sperm running into Butler County?

I am surprised that Northwest Ohio district is so swingy. I would have thought that, given Lucas county is by far the biggest population base there, plus Ottawa and wood counties are relatively, that the remaining rural counties would not bring this close to an even pvi.

Nice that you finally created a Hamilton County District, but I think everyone including even though Ohio Republican party realizes that that's inevitable. I think Steve Chabot is dead man walking once that happens.
Thanks for your kind words and interest!
I admit that a lot of these ratings were driven more than anything else by the feelings things changed in 2016, perhaps they were in fact too R-friendly and start going into overcorrection territory. These Lean Ds in general though are closer to Likely than Tossup, and the Likely Rs are closer to Lean than Safe (generally speaking). It is also a fair bit of guesswork. My ratings here aren't gospel. They are just educated guesses.
Regarding SW Ohio, I had basically two choices re:OH-10 and by extension OH-08 - take Middletown from Butler County, or take in more of Greene County. I chose to take Middletown because a) I knew it was pretty fairly Democratic, b) I wanted to reduce the R PVI of the CD, and c) if I don't split Butler I have to split Clermont County instead, which would make things somewhat less compact. This way among the single most Democratic communities in Butler County (which also has a numerically significant black population), would help out Ds in OH-10, making the map more of a swing district. Not to mention, OH-10 could not take all of Greene, so OH-02 would split two counties instead of one and have a less compact arrangement in general.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2020, 06:30:20 AM »

As per usual, decided to try to make a fair map and compact map with 2018 numbers. Here it is:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/327146eb-0778-408e-824f-4be3bc9dab31

And the statistics for the districts (using PVI and 2012-2016 composite numbers):

OH-01: 55D-45R; D+3;
OH-02: 78D-22R; D+27; 47% black, 44% white
OH-03: 55D-45R; D+3
OH-04: 65D-35R; D+14
OH-05: 51D-49R; EVEN
OH-06: 34D-66R; R+18
OH-07: 46D-54R; R+6
OH-08: 48D-52R; R+4
OH-09: 48D-52R; R+4
OH-10: 51D-49R; R+1
OH-11: 54D-46R; D+2
OH-12: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-13: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-14: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-15: 31D-69R; R+21

So in total, this map should have a lot of competitive or potentially competitive districts. In an R wave the GOP could get up to 2-13 in fact! (although 4-11 is way more likely). Similarly in a D wave Democrats can probably get up to 10-5.
In a perfectly neutral year how many seats would the Ds win?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2020, 06:37:21 AM »

As per usual, decided to try to make a fair map and compact map with 2018 numbers. Here it is:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/327146eb-0778-408e-824f-4be3bc9dab31

And the statistics for the districts (using PVI and 2012-2016 composite numbers):

OH-01: 55D-45R; D+3;
OH-02: 78D-22R; D+27; 47% black, 44% white
OH-03: 55D-45R; D+3
OH-04: 65D-35R; D+14
OH-05: 51D-49R; EVEN
OH-06: 34D-66R; R+18
OH-07: 46D-54R; R+6
OH-08: 48D-52R; R+4
OH-09: 48D-52R; R+4
OH-10: 51D-49R; R+1
OH-11: 54D-46R; D+2
OH-12: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-13: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-14: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-15: 31D-69R; R+21

So in total, this map should have a lot of competitive or potentially competitive districts. In an R wave the GOP could get up to 2-13 in fact! (although 4-11 is way more likely). Similarly in a D wave Democrats can probably get up to 10-5.
In a perfectly neutral year how many seats would the Ds win?

It would depend on a lot of factors like trends, incumbency and what not.

Still, for a perfectly neutral year in 2022 I think Dems should win the 2 safe seats (2 and 4); the 2 borderline safe seats (1 and 3), the likely seat (11) and the tossup 5th district; for a total of 6 Dem districts on a purely neutral year. The 10th I think would go GOP by an incredibly narrow margin but still goes R by like 0.1 or something. It would be a true pure tossup.

So basically in a neutral year it should be 6D-9R on average; but 5D-10R and 7D-8R are both perfectly doable.
sounds like a very fair map then. Ohio is GOP leaning after all.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2020, 10:34:15 AM »

What if they did a simple chop of the county where one district is Butler+as much of Hamilton as possible and the rest is thrown in with Clermont and other counties to the east? It'd look very clean...
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2020, 10:40:12 AM »

What if they did a simple chop of the county where one district is Butler+as much of Hamilton as possible and the rest is thrown in with Clermont and other counties to the east? It'd look very clean...

You mean as Krazen did?
Yeah its relatively clean although its hard to argue why a county in a corner of a state that makes up almost exactly one district should be split.
I was thinking more a simple mostly north-south line.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2020, 10:52:02 AM »

What if they did a simple chop of the county where one district is Butler+as much of Hamilton as possible and the rest is thrown in with Clermont and other counties to the east? It'd look very clean...

You mean as Krazen did?
Yeah its relatively clean although its hard to argue why a county in a corner of a state that makes up almost exactly one district should be split.
I was thinking more a simple mostly north-south line.

Might need to split Cinci which isn't legal.? Can you try making it in DRA?
Yeah I'm testing this out in DRA.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2020, 03:29:22 PM »

What if they did a simple chop of the county where one district is Butler+as much of Hamilton as possible and the rest is thrown in with Clermont and other counties to the east? It'd look very clean...

You mean as Krazen did?
Yeah its relatively clean although its hard to argue why a county in a corner of a state that makes up almost exactly one district should be split.
I was thinking more a simple mostly north-south line.

Might need to split Cinci which isn't legal.? Can you try making it in DRA? After finishing it also show the city lines in the map.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/975f720d-88a8-472e-b993-78e7665bc3f4
this is the end result of about an hour and a half of work.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2020, 08:32:52 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2020, 08:36:04 PM by Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39126b56-cc7b-44e1-a266-03e6353397cd

Ohio gerrymander designed to favor GOPers while still looking clean, compact, and keeping counties whole. No county has more than two districts wholely or partially within it.
OH-01: 53.5-46.5 Dem, D+2
OH-02: 68-32 Rep, R+19
OH-03: 69-31 Dem, D+17
OH-04: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-05: 59-41 Dem, D+7
OH-06: 61.5-38.5 Rep, R+13
OH-07: 51.5-48.5 Dem, EVEN
OH-08: 64-36 Rep, R+16
OH-09: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-10: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-11: 47B 43W, 81-19 Dem, D+29
OH-12: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-13: 53-47 Dem, D+2
OH-14: 60-40 Rep, R+11
OH-15: 55-45 Rep, R+7

Probably the most clever element of this map is Dem-trending areas in Franklin being paired with solidly Red areas west.
Only 10 county splits on this map.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2020, 08:49:29 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39126b56-cc7b-44e1-a266-03e6353397cd

Ohio gerrymander designed to favor GOPers while still looking clean, compact, and keeping counties whole. No county has more than two districts wholely or partially within it.
OH-01: 53.5-46.5 Dem, D+2
OH-02: 68-32 Rep, R+19
OH-03: 69-31 Dem, D+17
OH-04: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-05: 59-41 Dem, D+7
OH-06: 61.5-38.5 Rep, R+13
OH-07: 51.5-48.5 Dem, EVEN
OH-08: 64-36 Rep, R+16
OH-09: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-10: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-11: 47B 43W, 81-19 Dem, D+29
OH-12: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-13: 53-47 Dem, D+2
OH-14: 60-40 Rep, R+11
OH-15: 55-45 Rep, R+7

Why keep a lake district when it be cracked easily and fairly compactly?
There are a few reasons. For one, having it in this configuration helps make the Wayne-Medina-Cuyahoga leftovers seat much more sensible-looking, and also cracking the lake district would require the 14th to crack Lorain and awkwardly wrap around the new 9th. Second, it has risks in a wave. Third, it is impossible to create a  firmly R district with most or all of Lucas County in it. Fourth, I actually did get a configuration with an R+2 Lucas seat and all of Lorain heading all the way to Indiana, but I ditched it because the overall arrangement was awkward and would look atrocious on a map.  Fifth, it is unnecessary - there is upside to keeping things this way, it ensures the leftovers Cuyahoga seat as GOP as possible while still looking sane and it makes the map look more decent broadly despite it being quite a bit favorable to the GOP overall.
In a neutral year the GOP has 9-6 at worst, and in a huge wave Dems have at most 9 seats.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2020, 09:44:57 PM »

The NE district really should take Portage county instead of Youngstown.  That makes it essentially 5 whole counties (very clean and defensible), and lean- to likely-R, rather than dooming Joyce.  Then you can stick Youngstown in your 6th district.  Akron can pair with parts of Stark County instead.  

Also, why split Cleveland?  Yeah, the lines are a little nicer-looking if you cut it in half but nobody can argue with keeping it whole, and it would probably be better for the 9th, no?  
I did consider having the 14th take in Portage instead of Youngstown. The issue was that it'd bump into the Canton CD. Broadly another issue is that the 6th cannot take Youngstown without ceding some territory to the 12th, which I am reluctant to toy much with. I'm not wholesale against it though.
I'll look into whether this rearranging is worth it overall.
In regards to Cleveland - it split it for compactness. I suppose it is fundamentally a wash either way though.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2020, 10:50:30 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2020, 10:54:10 PM by Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil »


Here is a revision.
OH-02 is 68-32 Rep, R+19
OH-06 is 55-45 Rep, R+7
OH-07 is 52-48 Rep, R+4
OH-09 is 53.5-46.5 Rep, R+5
OH-11 is 82-18 Dem, D+31
OH-12 is 61-39 Rep, R+13
OH-13 is 54-46 Dem, D+2
OH-14 is 63-37 Rep, R+14
All other seats are unchanged.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2020, 07:34:15 PM »



The DRA per Muon2 is using 2015 census estimate figures. The 2020 map was done manually and laboriously. It may have some small errors because I revised it a bit without going back to the drawing board, but the errors should not force a systemic map draw.
What is the partisanship of that 12th CD? How did it vote in 2016?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2021, 10:34:04 PM »

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?
Including or excluding Steve Chabot?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2021, 10:57:41 PM »

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

There really isn't a way to chop Stiver's seat from a GOP favorable perspective. that would likely mean pushing OH-03 south which makes Ohio 12th either a tossup to Safe D depending how you draw it.
Isn't it possible for the 12th to pull out of Franklin completely?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2021, 11:10:00 PM »

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

There really isn't a way to chop Stiver's seat from a GOP favorable perspective. that would likely mean pushing OH-03 south which makes Ohio 12th either a tossup to Safe D depending how you draw it.
Isn't it possible for the 12th to pull out of Franklin completely?
Well then somebody would have to take northern Franklin which would it make it quite swingy without parts of Southern Franklin being  in Stivers district.
Would dumping the rest of Franklin in with the 4th help?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2021, 11:49:41 PM »

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/dd058ab7-f768-4f17-90a6-c05ea0d977e3
Does this qualify?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2021, 08:11:01 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2021, 08:19:33 PM by Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil »

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/dd058ab7-f768-4f17-90a6-c05ea0d977e3
Does this qualify?

I think you might have some illegal chops in the Northeast.  It looks like the new 13 & 14 are chopping two different counties which isn't allowed.
In that case the lines can easily be redrawn. Thank you for telling me. I wasn't aware of that part of the law.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #18 on: April 28, 2021, 04:59:48 PM »


OH state house if it was as large as the state house of neighboring PA.
73 Biden districts.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/ada4e0c7-41c3-4942-a957-d6f0250f573c
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2021, 06:45:21 PM »

It's a beauty. That's exactly why it won't happen.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2021, 06:56:36 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2021, 07:03:53 PM by Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil »

You're correct. I'd be fine with even a 9R-6D map, but Ohio Republicans seem set to draw a 10R-5D map. (Is a 11R-4D map realistically possible?)
11R-4D? I suppose.
You'd need to play games with the rest-of-Franklin CD and send it into Western Ohio. Then you uber-pack Ds in NE OH and then have the mandatory Hamilton CD.
The will for this would be hard to find since it would guarantee Ds create a more "non-partisan" process through popular referendum.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2021, 07:41:13 PM »


Here's an 11R-4D that pretty clearly adheres to even a strict reading of the Ohio Constitution's splitting provisions.
Here's the details
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2021, 08:09:26 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2021, 08:16:22 PM by Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil »


Here's an 11R-4D that pretty clearly adheres to even a strict reading of the Ohio Constitution's splitting provisions.
Here's the details


False.
Every district needs to have atleast 1 whole county unless its wholly within 1 county
I have a district wholly within each county large enough for at least one district, no?
EDIT: oh.
I see the problem.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2021, 01:58:15 AM »


Here's an 11R-4D that pretty clearly adheres to even a strict reading of the Ohio Constitution's splitting provisions.
Here's the details


False.
Every district needs to have atleast 1 whole county unless its wholly within 1 county

Things have been fixed.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2021, 12:59:22 PM »

Who becomes vulnerable in the GOP if the OH Supreme Court rejects the GOP congressional maps and orders a fair redraw. I would guess we have something like 10-5 R with OH-1 as a Cincy D vote sink while OH-12 goes from red to leaning D along with OH-13 or 14 becoming a D leaning Cleveland suburbs seat.
Steve Chabot is most at risk, as always.
After that it's hard to tell. Balderson might be at risk if he ends up with a district with a big slice of Franklin. He won by 14% in 2020, and Delaware County continues to trend Democratic.
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