Ohio redistricting thread

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/Marcy_Kaptur/status/1481402375210422272?s=20

[😥]

ftp://

https://twitter.com/Marcy_Kaptur/status/1481402375210422272?s=20

Queen Marcy!

[lfromnj]

Is it even legally possible to make a 54 R 46 D state house?

[Oryxslayer]

Is it even legally possible to make a 54 R 46 D state house?

Probably not, but we'll figure out how close is realistically possible in the coming weeks.

[Padfoot]

Is it even legally possible to make a 54 R 46 D state house?

Probably not, but we'll figure out how close is realistically possible in the coming weeks.

It is mathematically impossible ... mostly because there are only 99 seats 😉

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is it even legally possible to make a 54 R 46 D state house?

Probably not, but we'll figure out how close is realistically possible in the coming weeks.

It's really hard, especially given County rules. You'd have to make a lot of Dem favoring decisions to just get 40 Biden seats many of which would be narrow. Most of the strategic lien drawing would likely have to be in the Greater Cleveland area and to basically deny Rs as many seats as possible in the region. (It's harder to play around especially with Columbus because it's basically perfectly encapsulated in Franklin County.

This is why trying to get a directly proportional delegation, especially when it comes to state House, is never a good idea. The majority party should always win a disproportionate amount of seats because more of their opponents votes should be wasted in areas won by the majority if that makes sense.

[lfromnj]

Is it even legally possible to make a 54 R 46 D state house?

Probably not, but we'll figure out how close is realistically possible in the coming weeks.

It's really hard, especially given County rules. You'd have to make a lot of Dem favoring decisions to just get 40 Biden seats many of which would be narrow. Most of the strategic lien drawing would likely have to be in the Greater Cleveland area and to basically deny Rs as many seats as possible in the region. (It's harder to play around especially with Columbus because it's basically perfectly encapsulated in Franklin County.

This is why trying to get a directly proportional delegation, especially when it comes to state House, is never a good idea. The majority party should always win a disproportionate amount of seats because more of their opponents votes should be wasted in areas won by the majority if that makes sense.

The map has 37 Dem leaning seats and I think 38 Biden seats. Fun fact one of the Biden seats is actually a Renacci seat !(Eastern Hamilton County). That one is an interesting one.

[nclib]

Great news.

[QuoteFromLink]However, the Ohio House map adopted by the commission favored Republicans with 67 seats to 32 Democratic seats, and the Ohio Senate map favored Republicans with 23 seats to 10 Democratic seats.[/quote]

I would be interested in seeing that map...curious how much of it is natural geography vs. crazy lines.

[lfromnj]

Great news.

[QuoteFromLink]However, the Ohio House map adopted by the commission favored Republicans with 67 seats to 32 Democratic seats, and the Ohio Senate map favored Republicans with 23 seats to 10 Democratic seats.

I would be interested in seeing that map...curious how much of it is natural geography vs. crazy lines.
[/quote]


Iowa has 61 Trump seats with a very similar margin FYI.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1482033890705514496?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

As expected, they cited proportionality in outcomes as part of the justification for ordering the redraw. Also stated it unduly splits Hamilton (Cincinatti Dem seat), Summit (akron Dem seat), and Cuyahoga (probably west county+Lorain Dem seat).

[BoiseBoy]

Excellent news!

[Gass3268]

As expected, they cited proportionality in outcomes as part of the justification for ordering the redraw. Also stated it unduly splits Hamilton (Cincinatti Dem seat), Summit (akron Dem seat), and Cuyahoga (probably west county+Lorain Dem seat).

Franklin County is mentioned as well.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1482039725825400834?s=20

[GALeftist]

As expected, they cited proportionality in outcomes as part of the justification for ordering the redraw. Also stated it unduly splits Hamilton (Cincinatti Dem seat), Summit (akron Dem seat), and Cuyahoga (probably west county+Lorain Dem seat).

Franklin County is mentioned as well.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1482039725825400834?s=20

It actually specifically mentions that keeping northern Franklin with Delaware would create "a relatively compact northern district that crosses over into Delaware County, which would keep Columbus’s northern suburbs together" (25). We love Maureen O'Connor don't we folks

[Pollster]

This is probably the dream ruling from Democrats' perspective.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Am I the only one thinking about how the entire Midwest (outside IL) gonna have pretty aesthetic maps?

[swf541]

So who draws the new maps in Ohio and whats the process for it?

[GALeftist]

So who draws the new maps in Ohio and whats the process for it?

Goes back to the legislature, then to the commission if they can't pass anything. If Democrats vote for it I believe the map's good for 10 years with no possibility of redrawing

[Babeuf]

So who draws the new maps in Ohio and whats the process for it?

Goes back to the legislature, then to the commission if they can't pass anything. If Democrats vote for it I believe the map's good for 10 years with no possibility of redrawing

Which is important here - Maureen O’Connor reached mandatory retirement age this year so this is her last term on the Ohio Supreme Court. Without her it would almost certainly be 4-3 the other way.

[kwabbit]

That Franklin County comment is a big blow, essentially forcing them to cede a seat to the Democrats. Perhaps not safe in 2022, but trending left rapidly. I believe a fair map for Ohio would still be 9-6 nominally from 2020 results and maybe 11-4 in 2022, but the Ohio GOP might have to draw something of a Dem gerrymander to achieve the proportionality the court wants

[Oryxslayer]

So who draws the new maps in Ohio and whats the process for it?

Goes back to the legislature, then to the commission if they can't pass anything. If Democrats vote for it I believe the map's good for 10 years with no possibility of redrawing

The goal for the GOP here would be to pass a map that the court agrees with but the Dem's don't, so it is only in place for four years. However, we really don't know how possible that is, and it may not be a realistic option. The court may not approve of anything that the entire Dem caucus would disagree with on fairness grounds.

[😥]

Great, but expected, news! What should we expect from the Toledo district?

[Lief 🗽]

So who draws the new maps in Ohio and whats the process for it?

Goes back to the legislature, then to the commission if they can't pass anything. If Democrats vote for it I believe the map's good for 10 years with no possibility of redrawing

The goal for the GOP here would be to pass a map that the court agrees with but the Dem's don't, so it is only in place for four years. However, we really don't know how possible that is, and it may not be a realistic option. The court may not approve of anything that the entire Dem caucus would disagree with on fairness grounds.

Democrats should just vote for whatever the GOP passes to lock it in for a decade.

[ElectionsGuy]

So much for Republican gerrymandering. But Dems getting >80% of the districts in Illinois is totally fine. Makes sense.

[Unelectable Bystander]

At least hopefully it won’t matter in 2022 and there should be some dem gerrymanders that break sooner than later