Ohio redistricting thread

[Padfoot]

Why do people keep putting Springfield in the Dayton district? Dayton district should obviously be Greene and Montgomery as thats the main Dayton metro.

This is easily a very nice cut of SW Ohio to work from. Putting Springfield before Greene is a D gerrymander as Springfield is merely just a separate medium town.  And then the argument for putting NW Warren is it looks more closer to Dayton than Cinci and it has almost left over from the Cinci Suburban district to put in. The only disadvantage is the suburban Cinci district looks a bit ugly.

Calling it a D gerrymander is a bit of a stretch.  It's not really possible to create a second SW Ohio seat with a true Democratic advantage.  At best, pairing Springfield and Dayton just makes a swing district that still tilts R in a neutral environment.  If you're trying to make a map that would be competitive and/or accurately reflect the statewide congressional vote then this pairing actually makes a lot of sense.  It's also possible to include Greene, Montgomery, & Clark counties in one district if you shave about 57,000 off of at least one of them (that's using 2018 numbers).

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here is my attempt at making a "high risk, high reward" R gerrymander that still complies with all the rules (I think; I am actually not sure if this is compliant). I did try to minimize county splits and what not; though there are still 11 cuts in counties smaller than 1 district which is quite a bit, but no county other than the one in Cleveland is split more than once; and I also kept Cleveland and Cincinnati whole. I am not sure if you need a 2nd majority black district though, so it may fail because of that instead (though that should not affect partisanship too much, if anything it would make the district even more of a pack)

This map can either be a masterful work if trends hold and what not (being a 12R-2D-1S map), or something that backfires spectacularly (being an 8D-7R map in a wave, or possibly even beyond that)



OH-01: R+9 (58R-42D composite).
OH-02: R+4 (52.5R-48.5D composite).
OH-03: D+18 (69D-31R composite; 33% Black).
OH-04: R+13 (61.5R-38.5D).
OH-05: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R composite)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D composite)
OH-08: R+13 (62R-38D composite)
OH-09: R+8 (56.5R-43.5D composite)
OH-10: R+6 (54R-46D composite)
OH-11: D+31 (82D-18R composite); 48% black
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D composite)
OH-13: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-14: R+4 (52.5R-47.5D composite)
OH-15: R+7 (55R-45D composite)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09085952-e483-4980-955c-8c8b0606a4ba

[Nyvin]

Ok, here is my attempt at making a "high risk, high reward" R gerrymander that still complies with all the rules (I think; I am actually not sure if this is compliant). I did try to minimize county splits and what not; though there are still 11 cuts in counties smaller than 1 district which is quite a bit, but no county other than the one in Cleveland is split more than once; and I also kept Cleveland and Cincinnati whole. I am not sure if you need a 2nd majority black district though, so it may fail because of that instead (though that should not affect partisanship too much, if anything it would make the district even more of a pack)

This map can either be a masterful work if trends hold and what not (being a 12R-2D-1S map), or something that backfires spectacularly (being an 8D-7R map in a wave, or possibly even beyond that)



OH-01: R+9 (58R-42D composite).
OH-02: R+4 (52.5R-48.5D composite).
OH-03: D+18 (69D-31R composite; 33% Black).
OH-04: R+13 (61.5R-38.5D).
OH-05: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R composite)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D composite)
OH-08: R+13 (62R-38D composite)
OH-09: R+8 (56.5R-43.5D composite)
OH-10: R+6 (54R-46D composite)
OH-11: D+31 (82D-18R composite); 48% black
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D composite)
OH-13: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-14: R+4 (52.5R-47.5D composite)
OH-15: R+7 (55R-45D composite)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09085952-e483-4980-955c-8c8b0606a4ba

OH-6 doesn't have a whole county, and the double split OH-3 does to Trumbull wouldn't be allowed.

But beyond that, there's just no realistic way this map would withstand court scrutiny with the wording of the reform.

[Former President tack50]

OH-6 doesn't have a whole county, and the double split OH-3 does to Trumbull wouldn't be allowed.

But beyond that, there's just no realistic way this map would withstand court scrutiny with the wording of the reform.

Is that just a "the spirit of the reform" kind of thing or does the map break any other rules? Does the map specify anything that say, you can't just draw "skinny" districts or that the districts shall be reasonably compact or something like that?

Those 2 can be easily fixed for what is worth, with little impact in the partisanship in fact; here is a revised map:



New altered districts:

OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D)
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D)
OH-13: R+4 (53R-47D)

This makes the 13th drop from R+5 to R+4 but that's about it (and tbf that is an overstatement. If adding decimals it goes from R+4.6 to R+4.4 so the difference is minimal)

[lfromnj]

Ok, here is my attempt at making a "high risk, high reward" R gerrymander that still complies with all the rules (I think; I am actually not sure if this is compliant). I did try to minimize county splits and what not; though there are still 11 cuts in counties smaller than 1 district which is quite a bit, but no county other than the one in Cleveland is split more than once; and I also kept Cleveland and Cincinnati whole. I am not sure if you need a 2nd majority black district though, so it may fail because of that instead (though that should not affect partisanship too much, if anything it would make the district even more of a pack)

This map can either be a masterful work if trends hold and what not (being a 12R-2D-1S map), or something that backfires spectacularly (being an 8D-7R map in a wave, or possibly even beyond that)



OH-01: R+9 (58R-42D composite).
OH-02: R+4 (52.5R-48.5D composite).
OH-03: D+18 (69D-31R composite; 33% Black).
OH-04: R+13 (61.5R-38.5D).
OH-05: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R composite)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D composite)
OH-08: R+13 (62R-38D composite)
OH-09: R+8 (56.5R-43.5D composite)
OH-10: R+6 (54R-46D composite)
OH-11: D+31 (82D-18R composite); 48% black
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D composite)
OH-13: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-14: R+4 (52.5R-47.5D composite)
OH-15: R+7 (55R-45D composite)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09085952-e483-4980-955c-8c8b0606a4ba

OH-6 doesn't have a whole county, and the double split OH-3 does to Trumbull wouldn't be allowed.

But beyond that, there's just no realistic way this map would withstand court scrutiny with the wording of the reform.

There was also no realistic way for the NC supreme court to strike down the map but they made up something. Partisan court means partisan decisions.

[Nyvin]

Ok, here is my attempt at making a "high risk, high reward" R gerrymander that still complies with all the rules (I think; I am actually not sure if this is compliant). I did try to minimize county splits and what not; though there are still 11 cuts in counties smaller than 1 district which is quite a bit, but no county other than the one in Cleveland is split more than once; and I also kept Cleveland and Cincinnati whole. I am not sure if you need a 2nd majority black district though, so it may fail because of that instead (though that should not affect partisanship too much, if anything it would make the district even more of a pack)

This map can either be a masterful work if trends hold and what not (being a 12R-2D-1S map), or something that backfires spectacularly (being an 8D-7R map in a wave, or possibly even beyond that)



OH-01: R+9 (58R-42D composite).
OH-02: R+4 (52.5R-48.5D composite).
OH-03: D+18 (69D-31R composite; 33% Black).
OH-04: R+13 (61.5R-38.5D).
OH-05: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R composite)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D composite)
OH-08: R+13 (62R-38D composite)
OH-09: R+8 (56.5R-43.5D composite)
OH-10: R+6 (54R-46D composite)
OH-11: D+31 (82D-18R composite); 48% black
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D composite)
OH-13: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-14: R+4 (52.5R-47.5D composite)
OH-15: R+7 (55R-45D composite)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09085952-e483-4980-955c-8c8b0606a4ba

OH-6 doesn't have a whole county, and the double split OH-3 does to Trumbull wouldn't be allowed.

But beyond that, there's just no realistic way this map would withstand court scrutiny with the wording of the reform.

There was also no realistic way for the NC supreme court to strike down the map but they made up something. Partisan court means partisan decisions.

Even worse, NC didn't have a 9 page state constitutional amendment in place specific to redistricting either. 

[lfromnj]

Ok, here is my attempt at making a "high risk, high reward" R gerrymander that still complies with all the rules (I think; I am actually not sure if this is compliant). I did try to minimize county splits and what not; though there are still 11 cuts in counties smaller than 1 district which is quite a bit, but no county other than the one in Cleveland is split more than once; and I also kept Cleveland and Cincinnati whole. I am not sure if you need a 2nd majority black district though, so it may fail because of that instead (though that should not affect partisanship too much, if anything it would make the district even more of a pack)

This map can either be a masterful work if trends hold and what not (being a 12R-2D-1S map), or something that backfires spectacularly (being an 8D-7R map in a wave, or possibly even beyond that)



OH-01: R+9 (58R-42D composite).
OH-02: R+4 (52.5R-48.5D composite).
OH-03: D+18 (69D-31R composite; 33% Black).
OH-04: R+13 (61.5R-38.5D).
OH-05: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R composite)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D composite)
OH-08: R+13 (62R-38D composite)
OH-09: R+8 (56.5R-43.5D composite)
OH-10: R+6 (54R-46D composite)
OH-11: D+31 (82D-18R composite); 48% black
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D composite)
OH-13: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-14: R+4 (52.5R-47.5D composite)
OH-15: R+7 (55R-45D composite)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09085952-e483-4980-955c-8c8b0606a4ba

OH-6 doesn't have a whole county, and the double split OH-3 does to Trumbull wouldn't be allowed.

But beyond that, there's just no realistic way this map would withstand court scrutiny with the wording of the reform.

There was also no realistic way for the NC supreme court to strike down the map but they made up something. Partisan court means partisan decisions.

Even worse, NC didn't have a 9 page state constitutional amendment in place specific to redistricting either. 

They didn't have anything in specific to redistricting at all yet the court managed to cook up a 400 page long decision . The OHIO GOP can just say Sherrod brown won a majority of districts or something like that showing its not anti majoritarian and then the GOP court will sign off on it.

[Nyvin]

I'm thinking people are kinda overestimating just how partisan the OH Supreme Court is going to be.

[I’m not Stu]

OH-06 needs to have at least one whole county to be legal.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm thinking people are kinda overestimating just how partisan the OH Supreme Court is going to be.

They’re not

[lfromnj]

I'm thinking people are kinda overestimating just how partisan the OH Supreme Court is going to be.

If the NC supreme court is partisan enough to make up a 400 page document on how gerrymandering is constitutional according to the state constitution, the Ohio Supreme court can allow this go through.

The main check on a map is mostly the electorate putting a new reform. RRH's map was relatively compact and clean for a gerrymander outside of Cinci so they might be willing to concede that seat in order to take out Kaptur and Ryan.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I'm thinking people are kinda overestimating just how partisan the OH Supreme Court is going to be.

The Republican Chief Justice was Bob Taft's Lieutenant Governor, and one of the Associate Justices is literally Mike DeWine's son.

[I’m not Stu]

Ok, here is my attempt at making a "high risk, high reward" R gerrymander that still complies with all the rules (I think; I am actually not sure if this is compliant). I did try to minimize county splits and what not; though there are still 11 cuts in counties smaller than 1 district which is quite a bit, but no county other than the one in Cleveland is split more than once; and I also kept Cleveland and Cincinnati whole. I am not sure if you need a 2nd majority black district though, so it may fail because of that instead (though that should not affect partisanship too much, if anything it would make the district even more of a pack)

This map can either be a masterful work if trends hold and what not (being a 12R-2D-1S map), or something that backfires spectacularly (being an 8D-7R map in a wave, or possibly even beyond that)



OH-01: R+9 (58R-42D composite).
OH-02: R+4 (52.5R-48.5D composite).
OH-03: D+18 (69D-31R composite; 33% Black).
OH-04: R+13 (61.5R-38.5D).
OH-05: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R composite)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D composite)
OH-08: R+13 (62R-38D composite)
OH-09: R+8 (56.5R-43.5D composite)
OH-10: R+6 (54R-46D composite)
OH-11: D+31 (82D-18R composite); 48% black
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D composite)
OH-13: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-14: R+4 (52.5R-47.5D composite)
OH-15: R+7 (55R-45D composite)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09085952-e483-4980-955c-8c8b0606a4ba

OH-6 doesn't have a whole county, and the double split OH-3 does to Trumbull wouldn't be allowed.

But beyond that, there's just no realistic way this map would withstand court scrutiny with the wording of the reform.

There was also no realistic way for the NC supreme court to strike down the map but they made up something. Partisan court means partisan decisions.

Even worse, NC didn't have a 9 page state constitutional amendment in place specific to redistricting either. 

They didn't have anything in specific to redistricting at all yet the court managed to cook up a 400 page long decision . The OHIO GOP can just say Sherrod brown won a majority of districts or something like that showing its not anti majoritarian and then the GOP court will sign off on it.

OH-06 needs at least one whole county.

[Torie]

                                                      OHIO MAP BASED ON PROJ 2020 CENSUS

[Sol]

                                                      OHIO MAP BASED ON PROJ 2020 CENSUS

Don't think having 3 districts in Franklin is legal. Not sure if I like splitting Butler over Warren, which is more Dayton oriented.

[I’m not Stu]

I think Warren County is more centered around Dayton.

[lfromnj]

                                                      OHIO MAP BASED ON PROJ 2020 CENSUS

Don't think having 3 districts in Franklin is legal. Not sure if I like splitting Butler over Warren, which is more Dayton oriented.

Nope its perfectly legal to split Franklin and Cuyahoga 3 times. I think Summit is allowed too.(Franklin is bigger than Cuyahoga)

Also do you agree with my cut of SW Ohio?

[cvparty]

                                                      OHIO MAP BASED ON PROJ 2020 CENSUS

Don't think having 3 districts in Franklin is legal. Not sure if I like splitting Butler over Warren, which is more Dayton oriented.

you can double-split up to 5 counties and single-split up to 18 counties

[Torie]

The chop of Warren was ugly and not compact, and makes Warren a traveling chop which I tend to avoid where reasonably possible. I did do a traveling chop of Summit because of more than offsetting competing considerations. The chop of Butler was much cleaner.

I am very saddened I did not get Kudos for my color scheme. Muon2 once dissed me for making my maps artistic endeavors. I plead guilty! Aesthetics are important. I also like districts and chops to be rectangular rather than curvy. Chopping Madison County for example was just an assault to my eyes. So that project was abandoned. Chopping Hancock was an awful chore too, and not all that great, but the chops of Marian and other candidates were a total fail. Chopping smallish counties that still have a significant population where a high percentage of the residents live in a compact county seat are a challenge.

[Sol]

                                                      OHIO MAP BASED ON PROJ 2020 CENSUS

Don't think having 3 districts in Franklin is legal. Not sure if I like splitting Butler over Warren, which is more Dayton oriented.

Nope its perfectly legal to split Franklin and Cuyahoga 3 times. I think Summit is allowed too.(Franklin is bigger than Cuyahoga)

Also do you agree with my cut of SW Ohio?

Ah, mea culpa. Well in any case I still think it's not great fair districting, if that's what Torie was aiming for.

Your cut of SW OH makes a lot of sense, though there's a bit of leftover population needed in either the Dayton or suburban Cincy district. For that pop I don't see any harm in going into Clark, though it seems like Preble is easier without splitting stuff?

[lfromnj]

                                                      OHIO MAP BASED ON PROJ 2020 CENSUS

Don't think having 3 districts in Franklin is legal. Not sure if I like splitting Butler over Warren, which is more Dayton oriented.

Nope its perfectly legal to split Franklin and Cuyahoga 3 times. I think Summit is allowed too.(Franklin is bigger than Cuyahoga)

Also do you agree with my cut of SW Ohio?

Ah, mea culpa. Well in any case I still think it's not great fair districting, if that's what Torie was aiming for.

Your cut of SW OH makes a lot of sense, though there's a bit of leftover population needed in either the Dayton or suburban Cincy district. For that pop I don't see any harm in going into Clark, though it seems like Preble is easier without splitting stuff?

Its only 10k so either the southern portion of Miami or the SW corner of Clark makes the most sense IMO and based on Tories map for 2020, it might change enough that you can just remove rural Greene or Montgomery county instead .

[TJ in Oregon]

My attempt at a neutral map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e53b8128-1fa9-444c-b299-4fc75886169d

[TJ in Oregon]

After some input from lfromnj, I've made a few minor tweaks to put Delaware County in a Columbus area seat:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/77b88d59-ce40-4301-80f8-fed7aaf6d8d4

This moves 8 to the left, but not enough to be competitive. It also moves 13 left and 12 right about 0.3%.

[Torie]

Why publish just one map to be disdained, when one can garner a duo-diss by publishing two? More is more. This one vis a vis the first iteration by moi, does a clockwise twist of the CD's in the Cleveland metro area. It has advantages and disadvantages as compared with version 1, particularly if one cares about the Muon2 pack and cover rules for metro areas. But it kind of grabs me, if one can stomach Canton having access to the lake.

Cleveland saved my life. We love Cleveland. It deserves the best.

PS: That irksome blue dot to the east (NEE) of Canton (the gaggle of weirdos that read this sector of the forum all know where Canton is even if they do not know how to get a date, so  my elaborating further would just be wasting bandwidth), is  a software flaw. It was there close to a decade ago, and it still is, like a smelly old shoe that is falling apart, that one is nevertheless loathe to part with because it has become distorted to fit around your misshapen foot, an appendage that  itself falls light years short of the the Greek ideal of bodily perfection (in my case a high in-step) - to wit, a symbiotic celebration of the twin imperfections. And there you have it.

[lfromnj]

Really good map, only issues I have is that Canton district you were forced to do and I have a preference for taking  northern Warren and not Butler for the Dayton district.

Also feel like Monroe should be with Belmont. However its not legal IIRC, The Cleveland district doesn't have a district in one whole county .

Should be easy to fix, have Cyan eat the rest of Lake county, Green takes a few precincts from red,red eats a bit of Medina from blue which eats a bit of Stark from Cyan.

Eyeballing it, I think Clinton won 2 districts in Columbus and Cleveland each and then the Cinci district too. Trump won the Toledo and Akron district narrowly and heavily won the Youngstown district. The rest should be Safe R except the Dayton one?