Ohio redistricting thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

Well I don’t think Democrats care about what Republican donors think. I think what maters to them is that Dublin is pretty Democratic and shouldn’t be tacked onto red rurals.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

Well I don’t think Democrats care about what Republican donors think. I think what maters to them is that Dublin is pretty Democratic and shouldn’t be tacked onto red rurals.

The reason Democrats are fine with it is because Dublin has recently become heavily Democratic and can give us a shot at winning a seat we otherwise might not even with some rurals attached.

[lfromnj]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

Well I don’t think Democrats care about what Republican donors think. I think what maters to them is that Dublin is pretty Democratic and shouldn’t be tacked onto red rurals.

The reason Democrats are fine with it is because Dublin has recently become heavily Democratic and can give us a shot at winning a seat we otherwise might not even with some rurals attached.

Theres literally no way thats flipping till 2026 if not 2030.

Still a double digit Trump seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

Well I don’t think Democrats care about what Republican donors think. I think what maters to them is that Dublin is pretty Democratic and shouldn’t be tacked onto red rurals.

The reason Democrats are fine with it is because Dublin has recently become heavily Democratic and can give us a shot at winning a seat we otherwise might not even with some rurals attached.

Theres literally no way thats flipping till 2026 if not 2030.

Still a double digit Trump seat.

The State Senate seat, I mean.  A southern Franklin County sans Columbus + Pickaway seat would be a heavier lift.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

Well I don’t think Democrats care about what Republican donors think. I think what maters to them is that Dublin is pretty Democratic and shouldn’t be tacked onto red rurals.

The reason Democrats are fine with it is because Dublin has recently become heavily Democratic and can give us a shot at winning a seat we otherwise might not even with some rurals attached.

Theres literally no way thats flipping till 2026 if not 2030.

Still a double digit Trump seat.

The State Senate seat, I mean.  A southern Franklin County sans Columbus + Pickaway seat would be a heavier lift.

But wouldn’t Republicans prefer that seat?

[Gass3268]

We are now at the stage were Ohio Republicans are basically saying the State Supreme Court is wrong.

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1485011865386172417?s=20

[lfromnj]

Why is Dublin still attached to Union County?

There are quite a few rich Republican donors there who probably don’t want to be represented by a Democrat.

And these don’t exist in other towns in Franklin County?

Also, why would Democrats draw that same seat?

There are arguably more in Dublin than anywhere else in Franklin County

Well I don’t think Democrats care about what Republican donors think. I think what maters to them is that Dublin is pretty Democratic and shouldn’t be tacked onto red rurals.

The reason Democrats are fine with it is because Dublin has recently become heavily Democratic and can give us a shot at winning a seat we otherwise might not even with some rurals attached.

Theres literally no way thats flipping till 2026 if not 2030.

Still a double digit Trump seat.

The State Senate seat, I mean.  A southern Franklin County sans Columbus + Pickaway seat would be a heavier lift.

It could just be constitutional and the requirements for Kunze to retain the majority of her district.

[politicallefty]

It seems like what Republicans really want is to lock in a guaranteed supermajority in the legislature. In Ohio, that's a 3/5 majority (so, 60 in the House and 20 in the Senate). Obviously, DeWine is likely a lock for reelection. While he's obviously more conservative than Kasich, he's still irritated the right-wing fanatics in the legislature quite a few times. That same veto threshold is also the minimum needed to refer constitutional amendments to the ballot.

Also, is nesting really required? I've never really understood the point. To me, it just seems to exacerbate the unnecessary redundancy of bicameral state legislatures.

[lfromnj]

It seems like what Republicans really want is to lock in a guaranteed supermajority in the legislature. In Ohio, that's a 3/5 majority (so, 60 in the House and 20 in the Senate). Obviously, DeWine is likely a lock for reelection. While he's obviously more conservative than Kasich, he's still irritated the right-wing fanatics in the legislature quite a few times. That same veto threshold is also the minimum needed to refer constitutional amendments to the ballot.

Also, is nesting really required? I've never really understood the point. To me, it just seems to exacerbate the unnecessary redundancy of bicameral state legislatures.

The Dem proposal doesn't help dewine, all it does is draw out moderate Republicans allies in Franklin/Cuyahoga county.

Nesting honestly is fine IMO, it actually does give a purpose where it perhaps allows 1 state senator to coordinate with their 3 state reps on projects or the like. It also arguably does limit gerrymandering to some degree. Ohio has other issues like very specific county split rules that really mess up NE ohio. The rules outside of northeast Ohio are fine and don't matter too much other than pissing Democrats off in Cincinatti as it more or less prevents them from getting 2 seats there in any fair map. There are also certain "incumbency protection" rules embedded in the state constitution but they don't really protect incumbents but instead just give retiring incumbents some rules on their districts.

[lfromnj]

We are now at the stage were Ohio Republicans are basically saying the State Supreme Court is wrong.

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1485011865386172417?s=20

placing downtown Columbus with Pickaway county

Either Pickaway or Union County has to be paired with Franklin County and neither of those counties is really a great fit with most parts of Franklin.  Under either of those pairings the best the GOP can hope for is an R leaning seat in 2022 that likely wouldn't last more than one cycle.

False, you can get closer to population equality by adding Madison as well. If you have Pickaway Madison and Grove city that would not flip all decade. The map is arguably  D friendly for Franklin because the Franklin cluster is underpopulated by a few dozen thousand . This is obviously because Kunze doesn't want working class exurban areas or maybe there's an R senator from Madison.
The Ohio GOP now can accordingly redraw . Pickaway +Franklin is 50k under deviation for 4 districts while Madison+ Pickaway +Franklin is only 1k under deviation.



This would be a pretty Safe R working class part of Columbus and exurban/rural areas in the South. The area of Columbus west of downtown actually seems to be trending R as well by the way.
+15.7 Trump in 2016, +15.9 Trump in 2020. More D friendly downballot relatively than the current district but still more R overall. I think Obama may have won it in 2012 narrowly funnily enough so its closer to Canton than North Columbus.

Kunze would have been term limited anyway in 2024 and Democrats could have possibly picked then . However they wanted a Safe D seat instead of an underpopulated swing seat.

There's a GOP Senator living in Madison and I believe the redistricting rules say a reasonable effort needs to be made to keep him in something resembling his current district since he won't be up for election in 2022.  Madison is currently drawn with Clark & Greene and that combo still falls within the acceptable population deviation so it's extremely unlikely that Madison will be removed from its current district to balance the population of another district.  Kunze also has to be kept reasonably within her district since she isn't up for re-election in 2022 either.

With that being said we arrive back where we started.  However, I suppose there is one other alternative which is to pair Franklin with Fairfield but that would push all 4 Franklin based districts almost to the max deviation over the ideal district size and Fairfield really needs to stay with the Southeast districts since they are all underpopulated already.

Lol the GOP might be right I think. The map keeps Madison in a district with Franklin thereby violating the constitution.

[BoiseBoy]

Commission has adopted the Republican plan on a 5-2 vote. The map will last four years, instead of ten.

[lfromnj]

Surprised they didn't split Youngstown and drawn the swingiest possible seat in Athens. Both of those seem relative freebies for a D seat.



Anyway did some more looking into Hamilton. Basically IMO a fair map for the state house would have 3 super Safe D Cincinatti seats. 2 black seats and 1 white. After that a northern Safe D seat with a mix of upscale/diversifying areas. Generally votes with the county as a whole so Strickland still lost it in 2016.

Then 1 safe R western seat and 1 tossup by Biden #s western + black suburb seat. Lastly a Biden Renacci seat in the East. So 6 Biden seats but according to the Ohio state constitution only 4 D seats. So what does the GOP do here?

Well the Eastern seat can't get much more Republican. It can only be like Trump +1 to 2. However the western seat can definetely be more R. So the deal is to gerrymander the Eastern seat into Safe D while making the Western seat into Safe R. In this case we now have 5 D seats.

Map shown above is my fair map of the county. Map is definetely a bit weird in downtown Cincinatti I admit .

[politicallefty]

The Dem proposal doesn't help dewine, all it does is draw out moderate Republicans allies in Franklin/Cuyahoga county.

The state House seems to be more problematic on that note. However, Republicans currently have a massive 25-8 majority in the state Senate. It seems likely if there's a proportionally fair map for the state Senate that an 18R-15D map would be quite useful for DeWine. Even if Republicans got back up to 20 on that map, they'd need to hold their entire caucus together.

Commission has adopted the Republican plan on a 5-2 vote. The map will last four years, instead of ten.

For the legislature or the Congressional map? Also, what are the partisan leans of said approved map(s)?

[Oryxslayer]

Commission has adopted the Republican plan on a 5-2 vote. The map will last four years, instead of ten.

For the legislature or the Congressional map? Also, what are the partisan leans of said approved map(s)?

For the legislature. The maps are the GOP maps posted above in the twitter link. And while they did pass the commission vote, as expected, the court will now scrutinize them and probably change the game in some fashion.

[lfromnj]

OH state house if it was as large as the state house of neighboring PA.
73 Biden districts.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/ada4e0c7-41c3-4942-a957-d6f0250f573c

Was reading through the thread. The media should really realize details like this.(using more seats is a decent idea to show where the final maps would end up near as its harder to do too much to the maps with more seats especially if one keeps adhering to stuff like city/county splits. Only weird thing I see is putting the far south of Franklin with downtown Columbus effectively cracking that area. So 72/203 is 35.4% or 36 seats if translated to the state house. It's definetely possible to shoot for some measure of proportionality(say go from 36 D seats to 41 or 42 Biden seats) from there but PR is merely 1 out of many factors and even if one wants to view it as strict then D+0.1 seats should be viewed as a D seat.

[Gass3268]

What are the odds that the court keeps striking down the maps until they get Democratic buy in?

[GALeftist]

What are the odds that the court keeps striking down the maps until they get Democratic buy in?

At the very least I doubt that these maps are allowed to stand. Having 30% of the Democratic seats be within literally 1 point is utterly absurd.

[MillennialModerate]

Commission has adopted the Republican plan on a 5-2 vote. The map will last four years, instead of ten.

Wait… How do you know?

I thought this map isn’t much better than the current one.

What’s the breakdown… 12-3?

[GALeftist]

Commission has adopted the Republican plan on a 5-2 vote. The map will last four years, instead of ten.

Wait… How do you know?

I thought this map isn’t much better than the current one.

What’s the breakdown… 12-3?

State legislative, not congressional

[politicallefty]

What is this incarnation of maps going for in terms of partisan balance? It's doesn't seem like the OH Supreme Court has much tolerance for the commission or legislature playing games.

[lfromnj]

What is this incarnation of maps going for in terms of partisan balance? It's doesn't seem like the OH Supreme Court has much tolerance for the commission or legislature playing games.

42 d seats with 14 of them being 50 to 51 d. In some cases a gop gerrymander in others its a competivemander such as with Summit county. Others such as Hamilton is the GOP agreeing to cede a seat they would otherwise win but shore up another shaky seat.

[lfromnj]

The Dem proposal doesn't help dewine, all it does is draw out moderate Republicans allies in Franklin/Cuyahoga county.

The state House seems to be more problematic on that note. However, Republicans currently have a massive 25-8 majority in the state Senate. It seems likely if there's a proportionally fair map for the state Senate that an 18R-15D map would be quite useful for DeWine. Even if Republicans got back up to 20 on that map, they'd need to hold their entire caucus together.

Commission has adopted the Republican plan on a 5-2 vote. The map will last four years, instead of ten.

For the legislature or the Congressional map? Also, what are the partisan leans of said approved map(s)?

Slightly Seperate topic but one reason why the senate GOP advantage is so massive is because the Franklin delegation just completely fell apart for the GOP In the state house bar one seat while the GOP still has 1 state senate seat wholly within Franklin and another third with Deleware.  That along with the other side with the most extreme trends near Youngstown/Warren still having 2 state house Democrats but both senate seats flipping to the GOP. The last part obviously also can't be attributed to any gerrymandering as we are talking about an area that swung 40 points right.