Ohio redistricting thread

[Oryxslayer]

This will be a fun lawsuit. The OH republicans didn't even try to give it the apperance of being fair.

I have real trouble seeing how the OH supreme court upholds this.

Yeah this seems like an in-and-out case. Multiple commissioners deriding the process, lack of transparency, and potential minority vote dilution, and potential voiding of commission compactness and COI guidelines. Of course, when the map gets thrown out 4-3 they are apparently required to order the commission start over this time under their supervision, whereas congressionally the court can take over completely.

Don't see where there any VRA issues?
Columbus has one majority black district. Cincinatti has a 40% black. It may be possible to keep a majority black district there but it would  just make more sense to keep it whole. Cleveland has one majority district and one plurality district.

State house side of things. Those district's components are at time very packed, and can be reduced to increase influence in neighboring seats. It was much worse on the initial map, but someone told them to be less ignorant in Cleveland. HD1 is majority white and can be made into an AA seat, especially from HD2. HD18 is >70% AA whereas her neighboring AA seats are only about 50% or less - more than reason to disperse the population if not try for a new AA seat, especially since these seats are all overpopulated. The GOPs decision to move a seat from Cleveland to Columbus probably instigated this particular issue.

That seems like a fine point of attack right there. And nesting requirements mean ordering changes to one map means changing the other.

[Badger]

Dayton is also changed. Its in a swing Biden +5 seat now.

You mean SD6? Well, looks like those complainers had some effect.

 Lipstick on a pig. These maps are still at abomination.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/acluohio/status/1441113679643041798?s=20

That was fast. 4-3 strikedown incoming.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats should follow this brilliant logic in their states....New York Democrats won 100% of statewide elections in the past decade so I guess they're entitled to 100% of the seats, correct?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1438470041817735168

Can whichever blue avatar wrote that memo please defend their thinking here.  tyia

[lfromnj]

Democrats should follow this brilliant logic in their states....New York Democrats won 100% of statewide elections in the past decade so I guess they're entitled to 100% of the seats, correct?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1438470041817735168

Can whichever blue avatar wrote that memo please defend their thinking here.  tyia

I mean it is LOL TIER thinking although the tweet does slightly misquote it. They said take the average statewide share(54%) and average statewide win share(81%). This is 67%. They really just wanted a way to get up to 67%.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats should follow this brilliant logic in their states....New York Democrats won 100% of statewide elections in the past decade so I guess they're entitled to 100% of the seats, correct?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1438470041817735168

Can whichever blue avatar wrote that memo please defend their thinking here.  tyia

I mean it is LOL TIER thinking although the tweet does slightly misquote it. They said take the average statewide share(54%) and average statewide win share(81%). This is 67%. They really just wanted a way to get up to 67%.

I feel like they should have just taken the share of counties that voted Trump vs. Biden in Ohio.  Or better yet, calculate the landmass percentage share.  I think a really large farm deserves more clout than half of Cleveland. 

[BoiseBoy]

This will never happen but boy does it look nice.

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1441460794869174273?s=21

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's a beauty. That's exactly why it won't happen.

[Storr]

It's a beauty. That's exactly why it won't happen.

You're correct. I'd be fine with even a 9R-6D map, but Ohio Republicans seem set to draw a 10R-5D map. (Is a 11R-4D map realistically possible?)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's a beauty. That's exactly why it won't happen.

You're correct. I'd be fine with even a 9R-6D map, but Ohio Republicans seem set to draw a 10R-5D map. (Is a 11R-4D map realistically possible?)

11R-4D? I suppose.
You'd need to play games with the rest-of-Franklin CD and send it into Western Ohio. Then you uber-pack Ds in NE OH and then have the mandatory Hamilton CD.
The will for this would be hard to find since it would guarantee Ds create a more "non-partisan" process through popular referendum.

[Oryxslayer]

It's a beauty. That's exactly why it won't happen.

You're correct. I'd be fine with even a 9R-6D map, but Ohio Republicans seem set to draw a 10R-5D map. (Is a 11R-4D map realistically possible?)

11R-4D? I suppose.
You'd need to play games with the rest-of-Franklin CD and send it into Western Ohio. Then you uber-pack Ds in NW OH and then have the mandatory Hamilton CD.
The will for this would be hard to find since it would guarantee Ds create a more "non-partisan" process through popular referendum.

Also, as we just saw with the state Leg, the maps would almost certainly get punted to the Ohio Supreme Court - which is established to have sole Jurisdiction over the lines, where we expect the inevitable O'Conner smackdown. The Court additionally does not need to return authority to commission congressionally, whereas if it strikes down the leg maps the commission must once again draw lines, only this time under supervision.

[If my soul was made of stone]

As an experiment I tried drawing a safe seat for the departing Congressman Moonbeam, but to give it a double-digit margin for Biden one has to take in all of Akron, costing the 11th its Black majority (still barely has a plurality-Black VAP, though):



With Ryan departing, I doubt that there would be much of a bench for this seat, either, unless Nina Turner carpetbags or Ryan studies TM-based necromancy under John Hagelin and revives Herr Traficant.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's an 11R-4D that pretty clearly adheres to even a strict reading of the Ohio Constitution's splitting provisions.
Here's the details

[lfromnj]

Here's an 11R-4D that pretty clearly adheres to even a strict reading of the Ohio Constitution's splitting provisions.
Here's the details

False.
Every district needs to have atleast 1 whole county unless its wholly within 1 county

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's an 11R-4D that pretty clearly adheres to even a strict reading of the Ohio Constitution's splitting provisions.
Here's the details

False.
Every district needs to have atleast 1 whole county unless its wholly within 1 county

I have a district wholly within each county large enough for at least one district, no?
EDIT: oh.
I see the problem.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's an 11R-4D that pretty clearly adheres to even a strict reading of the Ohio Constitution's splitting provisions.
Here's the details

False.
Every district needs to have atleast 1 whole county unless its wholly within 1 county

Things have been fixed.

[OBD]

This will never happen but boy does it look nice.

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1441460794869174273?s=21

Holy based.

[BoiseBoy]

Ohio Senate Democrats have proposed a map:

https://twitter.com/karenkasler/status/1443257916727906313?s=20

A DRA link can be found here:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/230d855d-d1f8-4a89-b2a6-b39e48d69a1c

[S019]

Honestly a pretty fair map imo

[Gass3268]

Tomorrow is the deadline for the Congressional map, right?

[BoiseBoy]

Tomorrow is the deadline for the Congressional map, right?

Yes, the legislature has a deadline of September 30. Since that will obviously not be met, a commission has until October 31 to draw a map. If they fail, then the legislature has until November 30 to pass a temporary (4 year) map.

[Nyvin]

Tomorrow is the deadline for the Congressional map, right?

Yes, the legislature has a deadline of September 30. Since that will obviously not be met, a commission has until October 31 to draw a map. If they fail, then the legislature has until November 30 to pass a temporary (4 year) map.

They're seriously just going skip straight to drawing a 4 year partisan map, aren't they?

[GALeftist]

Tomorrow is the deadline for the Congressional map, right?

Yes, the legislature has a deadline of September 30. Since that will obviously not be met, a commission has until October 31 to draw a map. If they fail, then the legislature has until November 30 to pass a temporary (4 year) map.

They're seriously just going skip straight to drawing a 4 year partisan map, aren't they?

This is such a farce

[Oryxslayer]

Tomorrow is the deadline for the Congressional map, right?

Yes, the legislature has a deadline of September 30. Since that will obviously not be met, a commission has until October 31 to draw a map. If they fail, then the legislature has until November 30 to pass a temporary (4 year) map.

They're seriously just going skip straight to drawing a 4 year partisan map, aren't they?

Before that happens the legislators have a second chance to pass a map. Their first time, surrendered tomorrow, must pass by a 60% vote with 50% of each party minimum supporting. The second try is 60% with 1/3 of the dissenting party. The commission map must be approved by at least 2 members of each party.

After all this fails, then they can go simple majority 4-year via legislature. However, if everyone's just going to act in contempt of the rules and wait for the 4-year, then it's obvious the maps will get sued just as fast as the legislative lines. Which means the GOP is playing with fire since the OHSC has sole authority to arbitrate these things under the redistricting initiative, the maps will get chucked away by O'Conner, and unlike the legislative redistricting procedures the court is not obligated to return power over Congressional lines back to commission.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OhFairDistricts/status/1443576553636433923?s=20

The general composition of these 15 districts has come up many times in this thread...which means it won't come to pass except via O'Conner.