Ohio redistricting thread

[voice_of_resistance]

cause DRA purple has 2018 estimates and most of the new features that regular DRA doesn't.

[lfromnj]

cause DRA purple has 2018 estimates and most of the new features that regular DRA doesn't.

Regular DRA has that now?

Also cant view your map

[voice_of_resistance]

[lfromnj]

Id probably call Ohio 12th Lean D with that PVI, its a romney clinton district but the 5th is probably Lean R, its almost Trump +4. Also way too many county splits to be "good government" and way too many D districts if the Rs were drawing it, why not just combine Loraine and Cuyahoga for 2 districts?

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the PVIs for each district?

[voice_of_resistance]

1: D+3
2: R+16
3: D+16
4: R+24
5: D+1
6: R+13
7: R+16
8: R+18
9: D+7
10: R+3
11: D+28
12: R+2
13: D+2
14: R+4
15: R+7

[Nyvin]

FYI - Franklin + Delaware have a combined 2019 population of 1,525,933.   That's just 32,614 people short of two Congressional districts in Ohio.

On top of that both have been growing much faster than the state,  so the difference will likely shrink in the final census.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Blairite's Ohio Map



OH-01
East Cleveland Suburbs, Youngstown, Warren
Currently represented by Tim Ryan and Dave Joyce, although only Ryan lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-02
East Cleveland and Southeast Suburbs
40% black
Currently represented by Marcia Fudge and Dave Joyce.
Safe D

OH-03
West Cleveland and Suburbs
Currently represented by Bob Gibbs, Anthony Gonzalez, Jim Jordan, and Marcy Kaptur, although only Gonzalez lives in the district.
Likely D

OH-04
Akron and Canton
Currently represented by Tim Ryan, Marcia Fudge, Bill Johnson, Bob Gibbs, and Anthony Gonzalez, although none live in the district.
Likely R

OH-05
West Cleveland Suburbs, Sandusky
Currently represented by Marcy Kaptur, Bob Gibbs, and Jim Jordan, although none live in the district.
Likely R

OH-06
Toledo
Currently represented by Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta
Likely R

OH-07
Mansfield, Wooster, Canton
Currently represented by Bill Johnston, Bob Gibbs, Troy Balderson, and Anthony Gonzalez, although only Gibbs lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-08
Lancaster, Zanesville, Athens
Currently represented by Troy Balderson, Steve Stivers, and Bill Johnson, although only Balderson and Johnson live in the district.
Safe R

OH-09
Marion, Lima, Urbana
Currently represented by Jim Jordan, Bob Latta, and Warren Davidson, although only only Jordan and Davidson live in the district.
Safe R

OH-10
North and West Columbus suburbs
Currently represented by Jim Jordan, Troy Balderson, Joyce Beatty, and Steve Stivers, although only Stivers lives in the district.
Tossup

OH-11
Columbus
Currently represented by Joyce Beatty and Steve Stivers, although only Stivers lives in the district.
Safe D

OH-12
Springfield, Xenia, Kettering
Currently represented by Steve Chabot, Warren Davidson, Mike Turner, and Steve Stivers, although only none live in the district.
Safe R

OH-13
Hamilton, Middletown, Dayton
Currently represented by Warren Davidson and Mike Turner, although only Turner lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-14
Chillicothe, Portsmouth, Hillsboro
Currently represented by Brad Wenstrup, Bill Johnson, Mike Turner, and Steve Stivers, although none live in the district.
Safe R

OH-15
Cincinnati
Currently represented by Steve Chabot and Brad Wenstrup
Likely D

Summary:
2 safe D
2 likely D
1 tossup
3 likely R
7 safe R

I think the tossup becomes a pretty strongly Dem district with 2020 numbers, as it drops the non Delaware/Franklin portion and is trending left. All in all, I think this would generally be a 10-5 map through the decade.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah this map looks better than mine. Well done! I went for fairness a little more, but this works.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah this map looks better than mine. Well done! I went for fairness a little more, but this works.

I honestly like yours better. I think a Warren/Butler/Clermont R-sink district would look great. Also, there's no reason Montgomery and Greene shouldn't stay together.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that OH redistricting reform forbids cutting counties more than once unless they are the largest five - in which case they can be cut twice. You are also required to base a district out of those cities large enough to dominate said district (Columbus and Cleveland) and any county between 95% and 105% of a district needs to have a seat based in it (Cincinnati). I also think there are restrictions/bans on parallel cuts (two districts cutting two same counties), but the text is ambiguous in regards to them. There is also minor provisions regarding large locales and how they can't be cut if they are of a significant size, and how one should make an effort to keep them with their surroundings.

The reform is rather strict in it's guidelines, but is lax as far as the gerrymanders observe said guidelines.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9a223f05-99f0-4792-8893-167fdbe0a923
this is my take on the "fair map" concept.



Unlike in previous maps in this thread, Franklin County's surplus population goes into a CD lying south instead of north. The entirety of the doughnut around Columbus is contained in three seats. I also ditched the "Mistake by the Lake" and created a new swing district centered on Lorain County. CD-11 gets rid of the stupid arm down to Akron, and the bulk of this territory goes to the Youngstown district. There are only three true swing districts - the 7th (D+0.23), the 10th (R+2.77), and the 15th (R+3.73). The 5th (D+2.7) might fall in a good GOP year, especially if it is open. Contrary to what one might expect, the more Dem part of Akron being placed in the 14th was done as much for aestetics as it was for partisan reasons, as it just looks cleaner having a lakeshore seat (which also conveniently soaks up the rest of Cuyahoga and all of Summit as was needed, for sake of compactness), and a Canton+southern Summit+Medina seat. This leaves most of Akron with nowhere else to go.
One interesting facet of this map is the fact that it has 4 large rural seats covering 66% of the state's land area.

My general ratings for each of these CDs is as follows: (Tossup/Lean/Likely/Solid)
1: Lean D
2: Solid R
3: Solid D
4: Solid R
5: Lean D
6: Solid R
7: Tossup
8: Solid R
9: Likely R
10: Lean R
11: Solid D
12: Solid R
13: Likely R
14: Lean D
15: Tossup

[MaxQue]

Blairite's Ohio Map



OH-01
East Cleveland Suburbs, Youngstown, Warren
Currently represented by Tim Ryan and Dave Joyce, although only Ryan lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-02
East Cleveland and Southeast Suburbs
40% black
Currently represented by Marcia Fudge and Dave Joyce.
Safe D

OH-03
West Cleveland and Suburbs
Currently represented by Bob Gibbs, Anthony Gonzalez, Jim Jordan, and Marcy Kaptur, although only Gonzalez lives in the district.
Likely D

OH-04
Akron and Canton
Currently represented by Tim Ryan, Marcia Fudge, Bill Johnson, Bob Gibbs, and Anthony Gonzalez, although none live in the district.
Likely R

OH-05
West Cleveland Suburbs, Sandusky
Currently represented by Marcy Kaptur, Bob Gibbs, and Jim Jordan, although none live in the district.
Likely R

OH-06
Toledo
Currently represented by Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta
Likely R

OH-07
Mansfield, Wooster, Canton
Currently represented by Bill Johnston, Bob Gibbs, Troy Balderson, and Anthony Gonzalez, although only Gibbs lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-08
Lancaster, Zanesville, Athens
Currently represented by Troy Balderson, Steve Stivers, and Bill Johnson, although only Balderson and Johnson live in the district.
Safe R

OH-09
Marion, Lima, Urbana
Currently represented by Jim Jordan, Bob Latta, and Warren Davidson, although only only Jordan and Davidson live in the district.
Safe R

OH-10
North and West Columbus suburbs
Currently represented by Jim Jordan, Troy Balderson, Joyce Beatty, and Steve Stivers, although only Stivers lives in the district.
Tossup

OH-11
Columbus
Currently represented by Joyce Beatty and Steve Stivers, although only Stivers lives in the district.
Safe D

OH-12
Springfield, Xenia, Kettering
Currently represented by Steve Chabot, Warren Davidson, Mike Turner, and Steve Stivers, although only none live in the district.
Safe R

OH-13
Hamilton, Middletown, Dayton
Currently represented by Warren Davidson and Mike Turner, although only Turner lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-14
Chillicothe, Portsmouth, Hillsboro
Currently represented by Brad Wenstrup, Bill Johnson, Mike Turner, and Steve Stivers, although none live in the district.
Safe R

OH-15
Cincinnati
Currently represented by Steve Chabot and Brad Wenstrup
Likely D

Summary:
2 safe D
2 likely D
1 tossup
3 likely R
7 safe R

I think the tossup becomes a pretty strongly Dem district with 2020 numbers, as it drops the non Delaware/Franklin portion and is trending left. All in all, I think this would generally be a 10-5 map through the decade.

I don't think spilling small counties in the way you did is legal under current law.

[Badger]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9a223f05-99f0-4792-8893-167fdbe0a923
this is my take on the "fair map" concept.



Unlike in previous maps in this thread, Franklin County's surplus population goes into a CD lying south instead of north. The entirety of the doughnut around Columbus is contained in three seats. I also ditched the "Mistake by the Lake" and created a new swing district centered on Lorain County. CD-11 gets rid of the stupid arm down to Akron, and the bulk of this territory goes to the Youngstown district. There are only three true swing districts - the 7th (D+0.23), the 10th (R+2.77), and the 15th (R+3.73). The 5th (D+2.7) might fall in a good GOP year, especially if it is open. Contrary to what one might expect, the more Dem part of Akron being placed in the 14th was done as much for aestetics as it was for partisan reasons, as it just looks cleaner having a lakeshore seat (which also conveniently soaks up the rest of Cuyahoga and all of Summit as was needed, for sake of compactness), and a Canton+southern Summit+Medina seat. This leaves most of Akron with nowhere else to go.
One interesting facet of this map is the fact that it has 4 large rural seats covering 66% of the state's land area.

My general ratings for each of these CDs is as follows: (Tossup/Lean/Likely/Solid)
1: Lean D
2: Solid R
3: Solid D
4: Solid R
5: Lean D
6: Solid R
7: Tossup
8: Solid R
9: Likely R
10: Lean R
11: Solid D
12: Solid R
13: Likely R
14: Lean D
15: Tossup

Interesting map. I'm surprised that after splitting Franklin County more or less geographically even on an East-West divide that District 3 and 15 are similar in population after adding on all those extra counties, all of which are not rural, such as Fairfield which is fairly populated.

In Northeast Ohio I've always wondered if one could make basically an Akron-Canton district, and then a purely Northeast Ohio District basically running from Youngstown through Portage east and west and then North to the coast with lake in Ashtabula? Maybe I am just in denial about how far places like Trumbull and Mahoning County have shifted, even Beyond their infatuation with Trump in 2016, but I can't help it thinking that those districts would be reasonably split. I would assume that the Akron-Canton District would actually be democratic-leaning, but maybe not. I'm surprised that your version of 14 that basically includes 3 traditionally Democratic counties plus the city of Akron would still only be lean d.

I like connecting Dayton to Springfield and always thought that should be the basis of any District down there. I always thought that little bridge should maybe reach out to Yellow Springs to include the one I think semi liberal hippie Haven in Greene County I was wondering if you considered including the Beavercreek portion of Greene County in the district, maybe as a substitute for that little sperm running into Butler County?

I am surprised that Northwest Ohio district is so swingy. I would have thought that, given Lucas county is by far the biggest population base there, plus Ottawa and wood counties are relatively, that the remaining rural counties would not bring this close to an even pvi.

Nice that you finally created a Hamilton County District, but I think everyone including even though Ohio Republican party realizes that that's inevitable. I think Steve Chabot is dead man walking once that happens.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9a223f05-99f0-4792-8893-167fdbe0a923
this is my take on the "fair map" concept.



Unlike in previous maps in this thread, Franklin County's surplus population goes into a CD lying south instead of north. The entirety of the doughnut around Columbus is contained in three seats. I also ditched the "Mistake by the Lake" and created a new swing district centered on Lorain County. CD-11 gets rid of the stupid arm down to Akron, and the bulk of this territory goes to the Youngstown district. There are only three true swing districts - the 7th (D+0.23), the 10th (R+2.77), and the 15th (R+3.73). The 5th (D+2.7) might fall in a good GOP year, especially if it is open. Contrary to what one might expect, the more Dem part of Akron being placed in the 14th was done as much for aestetics as it was for partisan reasons, as it just looks cleaner having a lakeshore seat (which also conveniently soaks up the rest of Cuyahoga and all of Summit as was needed, for sake of compactness), and a Canton+southern Summit+Medina seat. This leaves most of Akron with nowhere else to go.
One interesting facet of this map is the fact that it has 4 large rural seats covering 66% of the state's land area.

My general ratings for each of these CDs is as follows: (Tossup/Lean/Likely/Solid)
1: Lean D
2: Solid R
3: Solid D
4: Solid R
5: Lean D
6: Solid R
7: Tossup
8: Solid R
9: Likely R
10: Lean R
11: Solid D
12: Solid R
13: Likely R
14: Lean D
15: Tossup

Interesting map. I'm surprised that after splitting Franklin County more or less geographically even on an East-West divide that District 3 and 15 are similar in population after adding on all those extra counties, all of which are not rural, such as Fairfield which is fairly populated.

In Northeast Ohio I've always wondered if one could make basically an Akron-Canton district, and then a purely Northeast Ohio District basically running from Youngstown through Portage east and west and then North to the coast with lake in Ashtabula? Maybe I am just in denial about how far places like Trumbull and Mahoning County have shifted, even Beyond their infatuation with Trump in 2016, but I can't help it thinking that those districts would be reasonably split. I would assume that the Akron-Canton District would actually be democratic-leaning, but maybe not. I'm surprised that your version of 14 that basically includes 3 traditionally Democratic counties plus the city of Akron would still only be lean d.

I like connecting Dayton to Springfield and always thought that should be the basis of any District down there. I always thought that little bridge should maybe reach out to Yellow Springs to include the one I think semi liberal hippie Haven in Greene County I was wondering if you considered including the Beavercreek portion of Greene County in the district, maybe as a substitute for that little sperm running into Butler County?

I am surprised that Northwest Ohio district is so swingy. I would have thought that, given Lucas county is by far the biggest population base there, plus Ottawa and wood counties are relatively, that the remaining rural counties would not bring this close to an even pvi.

Nice that you finally created a Hamilton County District, but I think everyone including even though Ohio Republican party realizes that that's inevitable. I think Steve Chabot is dead man walking once that happens.

Thanks for your kind words and interest!
I admit that a lot of these ratings were driven more than anything else by the feelings things changed in 2016, perhaps they were in fact too R-friendly and start going into overcorrection territory. These Lean Ds in general though are closer to Likely than Tossup, and the Likely Rs are closer to Lean than Safe (generally speaking). It is also a fair bit of guesswork. My ratings here aren't gospel. They are just educated guesses.
Regarding SW Ohio, I had basically two choices re:OH-10 and by extension OH-08 - take Middletown from Butler County, or take in more of Greene County. I chose to take Middletown because a) I knew it was pretty fairly Democratic, b) I wanted to reduce the R PVI of the CD, and c) if I don't split Butler I have to split Clermont County instead, which would make things somewhat less compact. This way among the single most Democratic communities in Butler County (which also has a numerically significant black population), would help out Ds in OH-10, making the map more of a swing district. Not to mention, OH-10 could not take all of Greene, so OH-02 would split two counties instead of one and have a less compact arrangement in general.

[Badger]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9a223f05-99f0-4792-8893-167fdbe0a923
this is my take on the "fair map" concept.



Unlike in previous maps in this thread, Franklin County's surplus population goes into a CD lying south instead of north. The entirety of the doughnut around Columbus is contained in three seats. I also ditched the "Mistake by the Lake" and created a new swing district centered on Lorain County. CD-11 gets rid of the stupid arm down to Akron, and the bulk of this territory goes to the Youngstown district. There are only three true swing districts - the 7th (D+0.23), the 10th (R+2.77), and the 15th (R+3.73). The 5th (D+2.7) might fall in a good GOP year, especially if it is open. Contrary to what one might expect, the more Dem part of Akron being placed in the 14th was done as much for aestetics as it was for partisan reasons, as it just looks cleaner having a lakeshore seat (which also conveniently soaks up the rest of Cuyahoga and all of Summit as was needed, for sake of compactness), and a Canton+southern Summit+Medina seat. This leaves most of Akron with nowhere else to go.
One interesting facet of this map is the fact that it has 4 large rural seats covering 66% of the state's land area.

My general ratings for each of these CDs is as follows: (Tossup/Lean/Likely/Solid)
1: Lean D
2: Solid R
3: Solid D
4: Solid R
5: Lean D
6: Solid R
7: Tossup
8: Solid R
9: Likely R
10: Lean R
11: Solid D
12: Solid R
13: Likely R
14: Lean D
15: Tossup

Interesting map. I'm surprised that after splitting Franklin County more or less geographically even on an East-West divide that District 3 and 15 are similar in population after adding on all those extra counties, all of which are not rural, such as Fairfield which is fairly populated.

In Northeast Ohio I've always wondered if one could make basically an Akron-Canton district, and then a purely Northeast Ohio District basically running from Youngstown through Portage east and west and then North to the coast with lake in Ashtabula? Maybe I am just in denial about how far places like Trumbull and Mahoning County have shifted, even Beyond their infatuation with Trump in 2016, but I can't help it thinking that those districts would be reasonably split. I would assume that the Akron-Canton District would actually be democratic-leaning, but maybe not. I'm surprised that your version of 14 that basically includes 3 traditionally Democratic counties plus the city of Akron would still only be lean d.

I like connecting Dayton to Springfield and always thought that should be the basis of any District down there. I always thought that little bridge should maybe reach out to Yellow Springs to include the one I think semi liberal hippie Haven in Greene County I was wondering if you considered including Beavercreek for portion of green more in the district maybe to substitute for that small chunk of Butler County?

Also interesting that Northwest Ohio district is so swingy. Considering how much more populated Toledo is compared to the rest of the district, plus Ottawa and wood counties are rather purple, I wouldn't think the remaining rural counties would come close to making this District anywhere near an even P VI.

[Water Hazard]

From my understanding of the text of the amendment, the only cities that can't technically be split are Cincinnati and Cleveland, since the prohibition on splitting cities with more than 100k appears to only apply to counties with a population of more than one CD for some reason. Columbus is the only city with a population greater than a CD, but it looks like it just needs to have a "significant portion" contained within one district (thankfully, because its boundaries are horrendous). Districts sharing the same two counties is only allowed for counties of more than 400k; the only two such counties that border each other are Cuyahoga and Summit. Additionally, none one of the three big counties need to have a CD based wholly within them, but the amendment states that each district must "attempt to include at least one whole county."

Anyway, I made a hypothetical GOP gerrymander with 2018 estimates that follows all of what I outlined above. I tried to be a bit stricter than necessary with the requirements (kept all >100k cities whole, for example). Probably wouldn't happen via the commission, but perhaps something like this could be passed as a 4-year map by majority vote if the redistricting process gets to that stage.


1: R+11
2: R+3
3: D+19
4: R+15
5: R+5
6: R+6
7: R+5
8: R+7
9: R+5
10: R+8
11: D+31
12: R+9
13: R+4
14: R+4
15: R+11

No 2016 numbers in DRA obviously, but the 13 R districts probably all voted for Trump at least somewhat comfortably. They wouldn't all be completely safe, but it seems sturdy enough to be a realistic option for an ambitious GOP legislature.

[Nyvin]

From my understanding of the text of the amendment, the only cities that can't technically be split are Cincinnati and Cleveland, since the prohibition on splitting cities with more than 100k appears to only apply to counties with a population of more than one CD for some reason. Columbus is the only city with a population greater than a CD, but it looks like it just needs to have a "significant portion" contained within one district (thankfully, because its boundaries are horrendous). Districts sharing the same two counties is only allowed for counties of more than 400k; the only two such counties that border each other are Cuyahoga and Summit. Additionally, none one of the three big counties need to have a CD based wholly within them, but the amendment states that each district must "attempt to include at least one whole county."

Anyway, I made a hypothetical GOP gerrymander with 2018 estimates that follows all of what I outlined above. I tried to be a bit stricter than necessary with the requirements (kept all >100k cities whole, for example). Probably wouldn't happen via the commission, but perhaps something like this could be passed as a 4-year map by majority vote if the redistricting process gets to that stage.


1: R+11
2: R+3
3: D+19
4: R+15
5: R+5
6: R+6
7: R+5
8: R+7
9: R+5
10: R+8
11: D+31
12: R+9
13: R+4
14: R+4
15: R+11

No 2016 numbers in DRA obviously, but the 13 R districts probably all voted for Trump at least somewhat comfortably. They wouldn't all be completely safe, but it seems sturdy enough to be a realistic option for an ambitious GOP legislature.

This wouldn't work for a four year plan (I don't think...?).   The restrictions that are put in place if they pass a 4 year map with a simple majority are this -

    the plan cannot unduly favor or disfavor a political party or incumbents;
    the plan cannot unduly divide counties, townships, or municipal corporations;
    legislators must attempt to draw districts that are compact; and
    legislators must provide a written justification of how the above three standards were met.

Pretty sure the second section about unduly dividing counties would apply heavily here (along with the third).  Of course it's Ohio Republicans so who knows.

Stuff like this attempting to get passed with 4 year maps and simple majorities is why it's so crucial for Democrats to win the OH Supreme Court this year.   That would make swatting down gerrymanders like this a breeze, legally speaking.

[Water Hazard]

From my understanding of the text of the amendment, the only cities that can't technically be split are Cincinnati and Cleveland, since the prohibition on splitting cities with more than 100k appears to only apply to counties with a population of more than one CD for some reason. Columbus is the only city with a population greater than a CD, but it looks like it just needs to have a "significant portion" contained within one district (thankfully, because its boundaries are horrendous). Districts sharing the same two counties is only allowed for counties of more than 400k; the only two such counties that border each other are Cuyahoga and Summit. Additionally, none one of the three big counties need to have a CD based wholly within them, but the amendment states that each district must "attempt to include at least one whole county."

Anyway, I made a hypothetical GOP gerrymander with 2018 estimates that follows all of what I outlined above. I tried to be a bit stricter than necessary with the requirements (kept all >100k cities whole, for example). Probably wouldn't happen via the commission, but perhaps something like this could be passed as a 4-year map by majority vote if the redistricting process gets to that stage.


1: R+11
2: R+3
3: D+19
4: R+15
5: R+5
6: R+6
7: R+5
8: R+7
9: R+5
10: R+8
11: D+31
12: R+9
13: R+4
14: R+4
15: R+11

No 2016 numbers in DRA obviously, but the 13 R districts probably all voted for Trump at least somewhat comfortably. They wouldn't all be completely safe, but it seems sturdy enough to be a realistic option for an ambitious GOP legislature.

This wouldn't work for a four year plan (I don't think...?).   The restrictions that are put in place if they pass a 4 year map with a simple majority are this -

    the plan cannot unduly favor or disfavor a political party or incumbents;
    the plan cannot unduly divide counties, townships, or municipal corporations;
    legislators must attempt to draw districts that are compact; and
    legislators must provide a written justification of how the above three standards were met.

Pretty sure the second section about unduly dividing counties would apply heavily here (along with the third).  Of course it's Ohio Republicans so who knows.

Stuff like this attempting to get passed with 4 year maps and simple majorities is why it's so crucial for Democrats to win the OH Supreme Court this year.   That would make swatting down gerrymanders like this a breeze, legally speaking.

The problem is that there is no direction given by the amendment to define whether a map is sufficiently compact or non-partisan. So, outside of giving a court more obvious justification to throw out a map, these provisions are largely toothless. The guidelines allow 18 counties to be split once and five to be split twice; on this map, I count 13 counties split once and none split twice (I believe districts wholly within a county aren't counted as splits in the amendment's definition), so it pretty significantly clears the minimum requirements on that measure.

My point is that while the new guidelines will certainly make the maps cleaner, the objective criteria are not particularly restrictive, and the party in power still has plenty of leeway to draw favorable maps without technically violating any rules.

[Nyvin]

From my understanding of the text of the amendment, the only cities that can't technically be split are Cincinnati and Cleveland, since the prohibition on splitting cities with more than 100k appears to only apply to counties with a population of more than one CD for some reason. Columbus is the only city with a population greater than a CD, but it looks like it just needs to have a "significant portion" contained within one district (thankfully, because its boundaries are horrendous). Districts sharing the same two counties is only allowed for counties of more than 400k; the only two such counties that border each other are Cuyahoga and Summit. Additionally, none one of the three big counties need to have a CD based wholly within them, but the amendment states that each district must "attempt to include at least one whole county."

Anyway, I made a hypothetical GOP gerrymander with 2018 estimates that follows all of what I outlined above. I tried to be a bit stricter than necessary with the requirements (kept all >100k cities whole, for example). Probably wouldn't happen via the commission, but perhaps something like this could be passed as a 4-year map by majority vote if the redistricting process gets to that stage.


1: R+11
2: R+3
3: D+19
4: R+15
5: R+5
6: R+6
7: R+5
8: R+7
9: R+5
10: R+8
11: D+31
12: R+9
13: R+4
14: R+4
15: R+11

No 2016 numbers in DRA obviously, but the 13 R districts probably all voted for Trump at least somewhat comfortably. They wouldn't all be completely safe, but it seems sturdy enough to be a realistic option for an ambitious GOP legislature.

This wouldn't work for a four year plan (I don't think...?).   The restrictions that are put in place if they pass a 4 year map with a simple majority are this -

    the plan cannot unduly favor or disfavor a political party or incumbents;
    the plan cannot unduly divide counties, townships, or municipal corporations;
    legislators must attempt to draw districts that are compact; and
    legislators must provide a written justification of how the above three standards were met.

Pretty sure the second section about unduly dividing counties would apply heavily here (along with the third).  Of course it's Ohio Republicans so who knows.

Stuff like this attempting to get passed with 4 year maps and simple majorities is why it's so crucial for Democrats to win the OH Supreme Court this year.   That would make swatting down gerrymanders like this a breeze, legally speaking.

The problem is that there is no direction given by the amendment to define whether a map is sufficiently compact or non-partisan. So, outside of giving a court more obvious justification to throw out a map, these provisions are largely toothless. The guidelines allow 18 counties to be split once and five to be split twice; on this map, I count 13 counties split once and none split twice (I believe districts wholly within a county aren't counted as splits in the amendment's definition), so it pretty significantly clears the minimum requirements on that measure.

My point is that while the new guidelines will certainly make the maps cleaner, the objective criteria are not particularly restrictive, and the party in power still has plenty of leeway to draw favorable maps without technically violating any rules.

Definitely agree.  It's for sure a subpar redistricting reform,  probably one of the worst in the country.   I don't think it was wise for OH Democrats to agree to it in the first place.

It won't be totally worthless though, it does make gerrymandering "harder" than what they could do in 2010 at least.   It just leaves the legislature with way too much power and leeway.

[Oryxslayer]

FTR, here is the text of the restrictions. It does appear that Chabot is not instantly DOA, I miss-remembered the county provisions, however his survival would be a surprise. Ohio passed this thing to keep redistricting reformers sated while keeping power in the hands of the GOP, so not throwing that community some sort of bone would defeat the laws purpose and precipitate true reform.

1.   Plans must comply with relevant provisions of the Ohio Constitution, U.S. Constitution, and federal law.

2.   Districts shall be compact. (This requirement does not apply to plans passed by the legislature with less than 60-percent or less than one-third support from each party. In that case, the legislature shall attempt to draw compact districts.)

3.   Districts must be contiguous.

4.   For a county with a population greater than one congressional district:

a.   If the county contains a municipality/township with a population greater than one congressional district, then map drawers shall attempt to include a significant portion of the municipality/township in a single district. The district drawer may include in that district other municipalities/townships located in the county, whose residents have similar interests as residents in the first municipality/township.

b.   If the county contains a municipality/township with a population over 100,000 but less than one congressional district, then that municipality/township cannot be split.

c.   If the county contains more than one such municipality/township, then only the largest one cannot be split.

5.   65 counties must be kept whole, 18 counties may be split once, and 5 counties may be split twice.

6.   A district cannot include two parts of a county that are not contiguous within that county.

7.   The same two districts cannot split the same two counties between them, except for counties with over 400,000 people.

8.   Map drawers must attempt to include at least one whole county in each district. This does not apply to a district contained entirely within one county or that, to comply with federal law, cannot include a whole county.

Rules Applying to Plans Passed by Simple Majority

If the redistricting plan is passed by simple majority under Step Three, the plan must adhere to these additional requirements:

1.   The plan cannot not unduly (dis)favor a political party or its incumbents.

2.   The plan may not unduly split governmental units, giving preference to keeping whole (in this order) counties, townships, and municipalities.

3.   The legislature must attempt to draw compact districts.

[I’m not Stu]

In 2022, does Chabot retire or lose?

[lfromnj]

In 2022, does Chabot retire or lose?

Again depends how they draw it, the Purple district there is R+3 and actually trending Republican due to the eastern portions and hes Safe even in a Trump midterm, if the GOP just concedes the seat then he would just retire. However if the GOP doesn't want the Ire and just agrees to clean in Hamilton they could also draw a district like this that would still Lean D but removes D black burbs rather than R exurbs and this would give him a fighting chance in a Biden midterm as its only D+1.9 PVI or probably around Clinton +7-8? . Would be doomed still in a Trump midterm.

[Nyvin]

In 2022, does Chabot retire or lose?

Again depends how they draw it, the Purple district there is R+3 and actually trending Republican due to the eastern portions and hes Safe even in a Trump midterm, if the GOP just concedes the seat then he would just retire. However if the GOP doesn't want the Ire and just agrees to clean in Hamilton they could also draw a district like this that would still Lean D but removes D black burbs rather than R exurbs and this would give him a fighting chance in a Biden midterm as its only D+1.9 PVI or probably around Clinton +7-8? . Would be doomed still in a Trump midterm.

OH-1 is definitely not trending R,   Romney won it by 9.5% and Trump only won it by 6.6%,  that's with Trump doing about 2% better nationally.

Warren and Hamilton counties both trended D.   Doesn't change much if you look at 2018 numbers either.

OH-2 is the district that's trending R due to the eastern exurbs/rurals (which are about 65% of the district)

[lfromnj]

In 2022, does Chabot retire or lose?

Again depends how they draw it, the Purple district there is R+3 and actually trending Republican due to the eastern portions and hes Safe even in a Trump midterm, if the GOP just concedes the seat then he would just retire. However if the GOP doesn't want the Ire and just agrees to clean in Hamilton they could also draw a district like this that would still Lean D but removes D black burbs rather than R exurbs and this would give him a fighting chance in a Biden midterm as its only D+1.9 PVI or probably around Clinton +7-8? . Would be doomed still in a Trump midterm.

OH-1 is definitely not trending R,   Romney won it by 9.5% and Trump only won it by 6.6%,  that's with Trump doing about 2% better nationally.

Warren and Hamilton counties both trended D.   Doesn't change much if you look at 2018 numbers either.

OH-2 is the district that's trending R due to the eastern exurbs/rurals (which are about 65% of the district)

The current ohio 1st is Romney +6 and Trump +6, IIRC it swung slightly R but still trended D, im saying the purple district in Water Hazards map, that would be the one taking in deep blue Cinci which probably didn't swing D in 2016 because its like 50% black.