Ohio redistricting thread

[Padfoot]

Basically if the Columbus seats have to shrink massively that might just keep a 2nd swing seat in the region while the Cinci seat has to lose 1 or 2 titanium R rural counties which pushes its maximum possible composite number up to only +3.5 R

Not sure if his Columbus math is 100% correct about the requirements and how much Balderson's district can take in but R+1 with Dublin is probably a tossup.  So even if Ohio is a R trifecta with mostly R control over redistricting Ohio keeping a 16th district could possibly give Democrats a realistic chance at 2 more seats due to the restrictions.

I just threw this map together fairly quickly to show that it isn't that hard to keep two R leaning seats in Columbus even with 16 districts.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c33f1abd-399d-46ec-a0ce-3e0d56b080f8

I didn't try to keep the northeast safe for the GOP so there are several Dem pick-up opportunities there though.  I think that's where things would be more interesting actually.  Probably not quite this nice for the Dems but I would think there would have to be at least one more Dem heavy northeastern district in order to comply with the rules.

[TJ in Oregon]

Here's an attempt at a compliant 13-2 map I put together a couple days ago. I don't think the Ohio GOP would quite be willing to go this far as it results in a number of R+4 seats that could easily fall in a wave. The geography of it actually comes out quite clean except for Akron.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::62e01fe6-ea25-421b-b48c-8638e8381824

[Nyvin]

Here's an attempt at a compliant 13-2 map I put together a couple days ago. I don't think the Ohio GOP would quite be willing to go this far as it results in a number of R+4 seats that could easily fall in a wave. The geography of it actually comes out quite clean except for Akron.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::62e01fe6-ea25-421b-b48c-8638e8381824

Why use 2010 numbers?

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's an attempt at a compliant 13-2 map I put together a couple days ago. I don't think the Ohio GOP would quite be willing to go this far as it results in a number of R+4 seats that could easily fall in a wave. The geography of it actually comes out quite clean except for Akron.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::62e01fe6-ea25-421b-b48c-8638e8381824

If you concede a 3rd seat, probably in Akron, it makes it cleaner and safer.  Wouldn't even have to be a pack, just 12R-1T-2D would be doable. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

[lfromnj]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

You aren't allowed to split Cincinatti. Look earlier in the thread on how to gerrymander Cincinnati. There is literally only one path.

[Idaho Conservative]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

You aren't allowed to split Cincinatti. Look earlier in the thread on how to gerrymander Cincinnati. There is literally only one path.

I'm pretty sure large cities can be split

[lfromnj]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

You aren't allowed to split Cincinatti. Look earlier in the thread on how to gerrymander Cincinnati. There is literally only one path.

I'm pretty sure large cities can be split

Actually the largest cities that are above 100k in pop cant be split.

[Nyvin]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

You aren't allowed to split Cincinatti. Look earlier in the thread on how to gerrymander Cincinnati. There is literally only one path.

I'm pretty sure large cities can be split

Only Columbus can be split.   Keeping municipalities together is one of the strongest parts of the reform.

Plus this map just screams lawsuits about splitting up communities of interests and benefiting a political party.

[Idaho Conservative]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

You aren't allowed to split Cincinatti. Look earlier in the thread on how to gerrymander Cincinnati. There is literally only one path.

I'm pretty sure large cities can be split

Only Columbus can be split.   Keeping municipalities together is one of the strongest parts of the reform.

Plus this map just screams lawsuits about splitting up communities of interests and benefiting a political party.

my map is far less partisan than some here.

[TJ in Oregon]

Here's an attempt at a compliant 13-2 map I put together a couple days ago. I don't think the Ohio GOP would quite be willing to go this far as it results in a number of R+4 seats that could easily fall in a wave. The geography of it actually comes out quite clean except for Akron.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::62e01fe6-ea25-421b-b48c-8638e8381824

Why use 2010 numbers?

The DRA uses 2010 precincts with 2018 population estimates for Ohio. The 2016 estimates have been depricated.

[Idaho Conservative]

too bad no 2016 numbers.  2012-16 composite are useless in a state like
 OH

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

[Brittain33]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

[Nyvin]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

[Brittain33]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment. It’s beyond hubris to think you can drown Akron, Youngstown, and Toledo in Republican districts based on the 2016 results.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

[Brittain33]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

You can’t anchor a district in Toledo or Akron and make it safe R. Besides, isn’t PVI based on the national results, not state results? R+4 on national results is a seat Biden’s probably going to win this year.

(EDIT) I checked the DRA link. That Toledo district is R+4 which means it just barely went to Trump. This is a dummymander, end of story.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

You can’t anchor a district in Toledo or Akron and make it safe R. Besides, isn’t PVI based on the national results, not state results? R+4 on national results is a seat Biden’s probably going to win this year.

(EDIT) I checked the DRA link. That Toledo district is R+4 which means it just barely went to Trump. This is a dummymander, end of story.

R+4 literally means combined PVI of 2016 and 2012. Which means 2012 numbers are still included lol. The Toledo district is literally trump +11 if you trace it on districtr
https://twitter.com/cacameronGOP/status/1282036322824118272

And the Cincinatti seat isn't even a dummymander even if it flips because that seat that doesn't affect any other seats besides Ohio 1st.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

You can’t anchor a district in Toledo or Akron and make it safe R. Besides, isn’t PVI based on the national results, not state results? R+4 on national results is a seat Biden’s probably going to win this year.

(EDIT) I checked the DRA link. That Toledo district is R+4 which means it just barely went to Trump. This is a dummymander, end of story.

R+4 literally means combined PVI of 2016 and 2012. Which means 2012 numbers are still included lol. The Toledo district is literally trump +11 if you trace it on districtr
https://twitter.com/cacameronGOP/status/1282036322824118272
 
And the Cincinatti seat isn't even a dummymander even if it flips because that seat that doesn't affect any other seats besides Ohio 1st.

worst case scenario dems win maybe 5 seats, still pretty good.  Most likely dems would win 2-3 tho

[voice_of_resistance]

Here's my 15-district court-drawn Ohio.



OH-01: Cincinnati, Dem 55-45, D+4 (Chabot, Likely D Flip)
OH-02: Cincy East/southern Ohio, GOP 63-37, R+15 (Wenstrup, Safe R)
OH-03: Columbus, Dem 72-28, D+20 (Beatty, Safe D)
OH-04: Western Ohio, GOP 71-29, R+23 (Jordan/Davidson, Safe R)
OH-05: Toledo/Western Lakefront, Dem 54-46, D+2 (Kaptur/Latta, Lean D)
OH-06: Ohio Valley, GOP 62-38, R+13 (Johnson/Balderson, Safe R)
OH-07: North Central Ohio, GOP 65-35, R+17 (Gibbs, Safe R)
OH-08: Cincy Exurbs, GOP 67-33, R+19 (OPEN, Safe R)
OH-09: Oberlin/Cleveland West Suburbs, Dem 51-49, R+1 (OPEN, Tossup)
OH-10: Dayton, GOP 51-49, R+3 (Turner, Likely R)
OH-11: Cleveland/Eastern Suburbs, Dem 79-21, D+27 (Fudge/Gonzalez/Joyce, Safe D)
OH-12: Columbus/Northern Suburbs, GOP 54-46, R+5 (Stivers, Likely R)
OH-13: Youngstown/Akron, Dem 58-42, D+6 (OPEN, Safe D)
OH-14: Northeast/Cleveland Southern Suburbs, Dem 52-48, D+0 (Ryan, Tossup)
OH-15: Canton/Medina, GOP 56-44, R+8 (OPEN, Likely R)

Assuming a little bit of carpetbagging, that means the new delegation would look like this:

OH-01: New Dem
OH-02: Brad Wenstrup (R)
OH-03: Joyce Beatty (D)
OH-04: Jim Jordan (R)
OH-05: Marcy Kaptur (D), would have somewhat closer re-elections
OH-06: Bill Johnson (R)
OH-07: Bob Gibbs (R)
OH-08: Warren Davidson (R)
OH-09: New Dem, would have electoral knife fight on his/her hands
OH-10: Mike Turner (R)
OH-11: Marcia Fudge (D)
OH-12: Steve Stivers (R)
OH-13: Tim Ryan (D)
OH-14: Dave Joyce (R), would have electoral knife fight on his/her hands
OH-15: Anthony Gonzalez (R)

5/9/14 are all competitive to some degree, with 10/12/15 being the B-tier of races.

[Brittain33]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

You can’t anchor a district in Toledo or Akron and make it safe R. Besides, isn’t PVI based on the national results, not state results? R+4 on national results is a seat Biden’s probably going to win this year.

(EDIT) I checked the DRA link. That Toledo district is R+4 which means it just barely went to Trump. This is a dummymander, end of story.

R+4 literally means combined PVI of 2016 and 2012. Which means 2012 numbers are still included lol. The Toledo district is literally trump +11 if you trace it on districtr
https://twitter.com/cacameronGOP/status/1282036322824118272

And the Cincinatti seat isn't even a dummymander even if it flips because that seat that doesn't affect any other seats besides Ohio 1st.

Ok, I’m corrected about Trump’s results in 2016, but what that means it went Democratic by a decent margin in 2012, and I know that part of Ohio went big for Obama in 2008. If Ohio swings back to parity as polls show districts like that are going to swing more than average for the state. I’d love to see the Sherrod Brown numbers for these districts.

[cvparty]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

You can’t anchor a district in Toledo or Akron and make it safe R. Besides, isn’t PVI based on the national results, not state results? R+4 on national results is a seat Biden’s probably going to win this year.

(EDIT) I checked the DRA link. That Toledo district is R+4 which means it just barely went to Trump. This is a dummymander, end of story.

R+4 literally means combined PVI of 2016 and 2012. Which means 2012 numbers are still included lol. The Toledo district is literally trump +11 if you trace it on districtr
https://twitter.com/cacameronGOP/status/1282036322824118272

And the Cincinatti seat isn't even a dummymander even if it flips because that seat that doesn't affect any other seats besides Ohio 1st.

Ok, I’m corrected about Trump’s results in 2016, but what that means it went Democratic by a decent margin in 2012, and I know that part of Ohio went big for Obama in 2008. If Ohio swings back to parity as polls show districts like that are going to swing more than average for the state. I’d love to see the Sherrod Brown numbers for these districts.

i feel like that’s wishful thinking, sure biden might narrowly win a couple of the districts but that would be with a near double-digit PV win. none of these districts went D in any race in 2018 except for sherrod brown, who is now basically the one exception in ohio; it’s likely that ohio regularly votes like in 2016 in the 2020s, possibly even more republican

[Brittain33]

I guess we’ll see this fall. If Trump wins Ohio by 2 or more points I’ll accept the shift is long term.