Ohio redistricting thread
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1275 on: May 05, 2022, 06:38:33 AM »

The OHSC really dropped the ball on the Congressional map. It's beyond pathetic. Even when you have a Republican court who believes in doing the right thing and holding the GOP to account, they manage to f**k it up through sheer incompetence. I honestly can't be mad at the GOP commissioners for this - when you're playing against amateurs, of course you're going to go bold.

Looking forward to the FLSC either being nakedly partisan or nakedly incompetent like here.

The incompetence is currently coming from FL Democrats trying to push the current FL 5th after the Wisconsin ruling which I warned a few months ago even before was on likely very shaky ground.

Shooting for a Duval only FL 5th is the best bet but the lawsuit as it stands is not only fair maps but also rescue Al Lawson. Obviously the most legal map was the legislature passed map. You can debate about Murphy's seat but drawing Lake with west Orange is pretty reasonable as well Seminole with Deltona.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1276 on: May 05, 2022, 07:15:10 AM »

Basically regarding the legislative maps it seems the Ohio GOP has a redline about giving 2 Democratic state senate seats in Cincinatti(which is pretty hard to do without having a joke snake district or
 significantly splitting the city itself)

The reason for this is a bit complicated but here it goes. Bill Seitz is the house majority leader or right below the speaker. He currently has a seat in Western Hamilton County. Due to the way Ohio term limits work anyone can hop between senate/house every 8 years which is what high ranking people generally do. So there is no way they are going to gerrymander out such a high ranking representative when he inevitably runs for senate. Ohio Democrats need to understand this.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #1277 on: May 05, 2022, 04:16:57 PM »

Obviously it's extremely sloppy and is incomplete - I need to fix the population deviation, make the districts contiguous (there are some tiny islands I missed for sure) and assign the unassigned 8,000 people, but here's my rough draft of a map in OH that prioritizes creating as many competitive seats as possible: https://districtr.org/plan/128290. Here's the broad picture:

Safe D (will stay blue no matter what): 1 (the 12th in Cleveland)
Lean/Likely D (might flip to the GOP, but only in a big wave, and not guaranteed even then): 1 (the 7th, Columbus + western suburbs/exurbs)
Tilt D or Tossup: 4 (the 2nd in Cincinatti; the 6th in Columbus and swaths of land to its south; the 10th which is an extremely gerrymandered and barely contiguous district that stretches across most of OH's northern border and includes part of western Cuyahoga; the 13th in northeast OH)
Tilt R or Tossup: 3 (the 1st in Cincinatti+Dayton; the 5th in Columbus and its northeast suburbs/exurbs; the 14th in northeast OH)
Lean/Likely R (might flip to the Democrats, but only in a massive wave, and would be tough to win): 2 (the 9th in northwest OH including most of Toledo; the 15th in northeast OH)
Safe R (will stay red no matter what): 5 (the 3rd in southern OH; the 4th along the Ohio River / Appalachia / the OH-WV border; the 8th in western OH; the 11th in rural north-central OH)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1278 on: May 05, 2022, 04:33:58 PM »



Democrats were in no mood for a compromise and have accordingly decided to decimate their caucus for 2022( a lot of lean D seats but many could fall)
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #1279 on: May 06, 2022, 01:24:17 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2022, 07:24:32 PM by CentristRepublican »

Blue gerrymander - https://districtr.org/plan/128422



EDIT: SAME STORY: Had another map I wanted to save/share on here, but I didn't want to bump up the whole thread just for that, so I'll just post it here. https://districtr.org/plan/145597. Initially my only real goal was to create a few Clinton/Trump districts (to be precise - two Clinton-Trump districts and a Trump-Biden district), but what I ended up was a bunch of very competitive districts that flipped between blue and red. Also mentioning % margins here since Districtr might remove them (all figures are from two-way vote share between Clinton/Biden and Trump). Skipped the totally and entirely irrelevant/uncompetitive districts.

OH01: Cincinatti - went from giving Trump 50.08% of vote in 2016 to giving Biden 51.76% in 2020.
OH02: Cincinatti western suburbs - gave Trump 59.2% in 2016; 55.8% in 2020.
OH03: Dayton area - gave Trump 56.59% in 2016; and 54.75% in 2020.
OH04: Parts of Columbus area, but also rural swaths of territory in western OH north of Dayton - 54.4% for Trump in 2016; 53.94% for him in 2020
OH05: Columbus and northern suburbs - 55.66% for Clinton; 58.71% for Biden
OH06: Safe R; rural OH
OH07: Columbus and southern suburbs and exurbs - very narrowly for Trump twice - 50.65% in 2016; 50.25% in 2020
OH08: Toledo and other areas in NW OH - Clinton/Trump district - 50.65% for her in 2016; 50.25% for him in 2020
OH09: Safe R; awkwardly-shaped seat in northern OH
OH10: Safe R; along the Ohio River and similar to Bill Johnson's very R-trending 6th district (which IRL had the hardest swing to the right from 2012 to 2016, swinging 30 points right)
OH11: Youngstown+Akron+Canton - initially meant to be a Clinton/Trump seat - 50.93% for Clinton; 50.44% for Biden
OH12: Eastern Cuyahoga plus Northeast OH - 53.84% for Clinton; 52.13% for Biden
OH13: Cleveland area - 69.09% for Clinton; 67.05% for Biden
OH14: Western Cuyahoga and areas to the south of that - 50.91% for Trump in 2016; razor-thin 50.01% for Trump in 2020
OH15: Safe R

EDIT: 9-6 Democratic 'mander: https://districtr.org/plan/149483. Same 9 seats for Clinton and Biden - but all 15 districts for Portman in the 2016 senate election.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1280 on: May 06, 2022, 10:00:12 PM »

https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2022/05/06/petitioners-seek-remedies-to-congressional-map-for-2024-election-cycle?cq_ck=1651882761587

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Meanwhile, nonpartisan voting rights groups, the ACLU of Ohio and the League of Women Voters of Ohio, want the map tossed and tweaked, but only want the General Assembly or the Ohio Redistricting Commission to do the tweaking.

The advocates said, in their filing, if the districts around Hamilton and Franklin Counties are tweaked, then it would be ok with the rest of the map.

Honestly I still don't get it. These 2 groups are playing idiotic hardball on the legislative maps trying to force a Dem gerrymander despite the court having no authority to actually draw a map while they seem to be fairly generous to the Ohio GOP on the congressional maps. Like again as far as I understand it the court can clearly take over drawing the congressional maps, so I am not sure why they don't want the court to just take over and want to leave the Ohio GOP with a 3rd chance.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #1281 on: May 07, 2022, 10:20:11 AM »

https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2022/05/06/petitioners-seek-remedies-to-congressional-map-for-2024-election-cycle?cq_ck=1651882761587

Quote
Meanwhile, nonpartisan voting rights groups, the ACLU of Ohio and the League of Women Voters of Ohio, want the map tossed and tweaked, but only want the General Assembly or the Ohio Redistricting Commission to do the tweaking.

The advocates said, in their filing, if the districts around Hamilton and Franklin Counties are tweaked, then it would be ok with the rest of the map.

Honestly I still don't get it. These 2 groups are playing idiotic hardball on the legislative maps trying to force a Dem gerrymander despite the court having no authority to actually draw a map while they seem to be fairly generous to the Ohio GOP on the congressional maps. Like again as far as I understand it the court can clearly take over drawing the congressional maps, so I am not sure why they don't want the court to just take over and want to leave the Ohio GOP with a 3rd chance.

On top of that the legislative maps are functionally meaningless because I don't see a scenario in the near future where Ohio Democrats win them outright. Maybe they'd win enough to prevent a supermajority? But it's hard for me to believe that a D governor is in the cards.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1282 on: May 07, 2022, 10:21:57 AM »

https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2022/05/06/petitioners-seek-remedies-to-congressional-map-for-2024-election-cycle?cq_ck=1651882761587

Quote
Meanwhile, nonpartisan voting rights groups, the ACLU of Ohio and the League of Women Voters of Ohio, want the map tossed and tweaked, but only want the General Assembly or the Ohio Redistricting Commission to do the tweaking.

The advocates said, in their filing, if the districts around Hamilton and Franklin Counties are tweaked, then it would be ok with the rest of the map.

Honestly I still don't get it. These 2 groups are playing idiotic hardball on the legislative maps trying to force a Dem gerrymander despite the court having no authority to actually draw a map while they seem to be fairly generous to the Ohio GOP on the congressional maps. Like again as far as I understand it the court can clearly take over drawing the congressional maps, so I am not sure why they don't want the court to just take over and want to leave the Ohio GOP with a 3rd chance.

On top of that the legislative maps are functionally meaningless because I don't see a scenario in the near future where Ohio Democrats win them outright. Maybe they'd win enough to prevent a supermajority? But it's hard for me to believe that a D governor is in the cards.

Infacr the maps the GOP pass help prevent gop supermajorities if somehow Democrats win the gubernatorial race . This is really stupid. Now democrats get all the downside of this map in 2022 but it will only be a 4 year map.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1283 on: May 07, 2022, 06:45:38 PM »

By the way although the LWV lawsuit was for 2024 I still don't know if the Democratic lawsuit has been updated to 2024. They didn't mention anything about the May 3rd primary in their lawsuit and seeking to cancel a primary should probably be mentioned atleast?
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« Reply #1284 on: May 07, 2022, 07:28:19 PM »

https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2022/05/06/petitioners-seek-remedies-to-congressional-map-for-2024-election-cycle?cq_ck=1651882761587

Quote
Meanwhile, nonpartisan voting rights groups, the ACLU of Ohio and the League of Women Voters of Ohio, want the map tossed and tweaked, but only want the General Assembly or the Ohio Redistricting Commission to do the tweaking.

The advocates said, in their filing, if the districts around Hamilton and Franklin Counties are tweaked, then it would be ok with the rest of the map.

Honestly I still don't get it. These 2 groups are playing idiotic hardball on the legislative maps trying to force a Dem gerrymander despite the court having no authority to actually draw a map while they seem to be fairly generous to the Ohio GOP on the congressional maps. Like again as far as I understand it the court can clearly take over drawing the congressional maps, so I am not sure why they don't want the court to just take over and want to leave the Ohio GOP with a 3rd chance.

On top of that the legislative maps are functionally meaningless because I don't see a scenario in the near future where Ohio Democrats win them outright. Maybe they'd win enough to prevent a supermajority? But it's hard for me to believe that a D governor is in the cards.
The supermajority matters because DeWine has clashed with the Legislature a lot and they've actually overridden a bunch of his vetoes that Democrats supported him on. But it only takes 60%, not 2/3 to override a veto in Ohio.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1285 on: May 27, 2022, 06:08:55 PM »

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1286 on: May 27, 2022, 06:37:30 PM »
« Edited: May 27, 2022, 07:01:18 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

I really want an actual commission on the ballot ASAP. This has been a disaster.

Also proportionality should never be a criteria. As a state becomes more politically lopsided it can become harder and in some cases impossible to achieve.

Also the county splitting rule is absolute garbage especially on the state legislative level.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1287 on: May 27, 2022, 10:25:52 PM »

This whole process was f**king joke.
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #1288 on: May 28, 2022, 08:00:19 AM »

This whole process was f**king joke.

Yes, although tbh, there were more than a few folks (myself included) who were utterly baffled at the time this commission nonsense was proposed about why the Democrats opted for this rather than just putting a referendum for a truly independent redistricting commission on the ballot.  It was an idiotic decision and I would love to hear the story behind that b/c I am pretty sure the folks involved had to have known better.  I was surprised it wasnít an even bigger train wreck with the OH SC just rubber-stamping the first Republican gerrymander put in front of them (not that it mattered).

If I had to guess what happened, itíd be that there was behind-the-scenes interference from powerful Cleveland Democrats who didnít want a map that disregarded safe seat incumbentís preferences any more than Republicans wanted anything resembling a fair map.  I doubt these folks cared too much what the congressional map looked like when push truly came to shove.  This is all pure speculation, but thatís the only explanation Iíve been able to come up with.  Maybe BuckeyeNut can shed some light on this.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1289 on: May 28, 2022, 08:28:12 AM »

Wow, I'm absolutely stunned that two Trump-appointed judges voted to accept a Republican map in defiance of the Ohio Constitution. Amul Thapar is practically an Alito clone in his decisions.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1290 on: May 28, 2022, 09:57:39 AM »

The main issue for Democrats for this map is the incumbent protection the GOP will be effectively forced to do in 2023.
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ibagli
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« Reply #1291 on: July 19, 2022, 09:17:26 AM »

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/07/19/ohio-supreme-court-strikes-down-congressional-map-used-may-primary/9359835002/

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The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state's Republican-drawn congressional map Tuesday, ruling that districts used in the May primary violate anti-gerrymandering rules in the state Constitution.

In a 4-3 decision, the Supreme Court rejected Ohio's 15-district congressional map and ordered Ohio lawmakers to redraw a new one within 30 days. If they can't the Ohio Redistricting Commission will have 30 days to adopt a congressional map.

A single person blows halfheartedly into a party horn. Four dead balloons and a cigarette butt fall from the ceiling. We won. Hooray.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #1292 on: July 19, 2022, 10:44:29 AM »

Round and around and around she goes. Where she stops, nobody knows.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1293 on: July 19, 2022, 11:15:37 AM »

If this goes through, hope that the Dems donít make the same mistake they did last time and actually vote for it if itís not as bad of a map as it could be, not because itís completely fair or gives them everything they want. My guess is republicans just slightly reconfigure the current map as they did last time and hope the court flips soon. Itís hard to see them completely giving up on any of their incumbents so I suspect theyíll try for a map that has a good chance of being 13-2

Anyways, something needs to get on the ballot in 2024; either a less arbitrary set of rules or a full commission.

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NUPES Enjoyer
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« Reply #1294 on: July 19, 2022, 12:16:53 PM »

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/07/19/ohio-supreme-court-strikes-down-congressional-map-used-may-primary/9359835002/

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The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state's Republican-drawn congressional map Tuesday, ruling that districts used in the May primary violate anti-gerrymandering rules in the state Constitution.

In a 4-3 decision, the Supreme Court rejected Ohio's 15-district congressional map and ordered Ohio lawmakers to redraw a new one within 30 days. If they can't the Ohio Redistricting Commission will have 30 days to adopt a congressional map.

A single person blows halfheartedly into a party horn. Four dead balloons and a cigarette butt fall from the ceiling. We won. Hooray.

...how exactly do they expect a map to be in place in time for new primaries and all the corresponding deadlines to be met in time for November while giving a full 60 days of leeway??
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1295 on: July 19, 2022, 12:38:16 PM »

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/07/19/ohio-supreme-court-strikes-down-congressional-map-used-may-primary/9359835002/

Quote
The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state's Republican-drawn congressional map Tuesday, ruling that districts used in the May primary violate anti-gerrymandering rules in the state Constitution.

In a 4-3 decision, the Supreme Court rejected Ohio's 15-district congressional map and ordered Ohio lawmakers to redraw a new one within 30 days. If they can't the Ohio Redistricting Commission will have 30 days to adopt a congressional map.

A single person blows halfheartedly into a party horn. Four dead balloons and a cigarette butt fall from the ceiling. We won. Hooray.

...how exactly do they expect a map to be in place in time for new primaries and all the corresponding deadlines to be met in time for November while giving a full 60 days of leeway??

Simple answer. It isn't. Its for next cycle. My guess on why the court still lwts the GOP have power is to force a 10 year locked map.
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Sestak
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« Reply #1296 on: July 19, 2022, 12:38:21 PM »

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/07/19/ohio-supreme-court-strikes-down-congressional-map-used-may-primary/9359835002/

Quote
The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state's Republican-drawn congressional map Tuesday, ruling that districts used in the May primary violate anti-gerrymandering rules in the state Constitution.

In a 4-3 decision, the Supreme Court rejected Ohio's 15-district congressional map and ordered Ohio lawmakers to redraw a new one within 30 days. If they can't the Ohio Redistricting Commission will have 30 days to adopt a congressional map.

A single person blows halfheartedly into a party horn. Four dead balloons and a cigarette butt fall from the ceiling. We won. Hooray.

...how exactly do they expect a map to be in place in time for new primaries and all the corresponding deadlines to be met in time for November while giving a full 60 days of leeway??

Decision does not take effect until the following cycle.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1297 on: July 19, 2022, 02:07:20 PM »

Oh well, wonderful. Justice delayed and justice denied once again. Good job guys, you really held the GOP to account there. Roll Eyes
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1298 on: July 19, 2022, 04:31:35 PM »

I kinda want to see the court try and draw a least change map that follows the rules for the lols
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GALeftist
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« Reply #1299 on: July 20, 2022, 12:19:59 PM »

I hope they just sink Cincinnati already. It's on borrowed time as it is.
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