Ohio redistricting thread
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UncleSam
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« Reply #1250 on: April 22, 2022, 11:21:15 AM »

The problem is that the Ohio constitution also has several other rules that supercede the proportionality one - compactness, county lines requirements, etc. it’s literally impossible to satisfy them all at once.

Hell, the Rs actually did a good faith effort at trying to satisfy them, making a map that voted 54-46 Trump, and the court still turned it down. I don’t blame them for refusing to comply with the process further, the court has shown a basic ignorance of the political geography of Ohio or the mapmaking process in general.

They aren't just ignoring political geography of Ohio but in general they are bringing up partisan fairness measures which just make no sense to use. Partisan symmetry is something to be used in model approaching the square rule or the like. To use such a model when demanding a PR split is beyond absurd.
Agreed, plus it’s a stupid metric anyway (see: CA, MA, WI). The only way I would support such a metric’s use would be if they said partisan representation must align with that of the median of 10,000 randomly generated maps that comply with all other redistricting standards.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1251 on: April 22, 2022, 11:25:40 AM »

The problem is that the Ohio constitution also has several other rules that supercede the proportionality one - compactness, county lines requirements, etc. it’s literally impossible to satisfy them all at once.

Hell, the Rs actually did a good faith effort at trying to satisfy them, making a map that voted 54-46 Trump, and the court still turned it down. I don’t blame them for refusing to comply with the process further, the court has shown a basic ignorance of the political geography of Ohio or the mapmaking process in general.

They aren't just ignoring political geography of Ohio but in general they are bringing up partisan fairness measures which just make no sense to use. Partisan symmetry is something to be used in model approaching the square rule or the like. To use such a model when demanding a PR split is beyond absurd.
Agreed, plus it’s a stupid metric anyway (see: CA, MA, WI). The only way I would support such a metric’s use would be if they said partisan representation must align with that of the median of 10,000 randomly generated maps that comply with all other redistricting standards.

Except for MA, it's still possible in the other 2 states to draw a partisanly fair map. What this court is demanding is a flat out Democratic gerrymander. They are literally asking for the GOP to gerrymander the majority leader out. Considering how weak they are acting procedurally you are probably correct in that the simpler answer is that they are dumb as rocks rather than malicious(unlike the GOP justices on the congressional maps)
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #1252 on: April 29, 2022, 10:17:06 AM »

They somehow managed to avoid contempt of court.

1) Because they are not in contempt as matter of the right and wrong of it; and

2) Doing so would be a raw exercise in power, except, the in response, in a raw exercise in power, the legislature could impeach any, or all, judges voting for contempt.

The rulings have been a joke. "Fair redistricting" is a phantom that simply doesn't exist. A reasonable notion of "fair" would grant Cincinatti, Akron, and Toledo, one state senate seat for the Democrats, Columbus and Cleveland 2 each for the Democrats, a few swing districts centered in Dayton, and the Columbus suburbs. The rest of the state would be so overwhelming Republican that any randomly generated map would be a sweep, or near sweep for the GOP. The court is demanding that the people who are responsible for executing the laws of Ohio to willfully violate those laws by taking a series of decision to favor the Democrats by carefully cracking urban areas to maximize the number of Democratic seats, etc.

The court doesn't have the authority to issue a partisan Democratic gerrymander, and, lacks the courage to articulate that that is what they are demanding.

There is a constitutional requirement for proportionality. Personally, I think this requirement kind of sucks, but I didn't put it there, and neither did the court.

And, there is a Constitutional requirement not to favor either political party in redistricting.  The requirements are self-contradictory, and, can only be reconciled by 1) acknowledging that the GOP has a more efficient distribution of voters, and, therefore, is apt to win a larger percentage of the seats; or 2) produce a Democratic gerrymander.  The Court is demanding the latter, but, is failing to be intellectual honest about it.

Nor, can I let pass without comment the false notion that the interpretation the Court asserted concerning "proportionality" is written in the Ohio Constitution. South Australia has the same provision, which has always been understood to mean that if you win a clear majority you are very apt to win, and a tiny majority, you ought to win. But, if you fall short of the majority, it never asserted that 46% is entitled to 46% of the seats. In single-seat, winner-take-all multi-district elections the drop off can be quite steep.

Article XI, Section 6(B) of the Ohio Constitution:

"The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio."

The "statewide proportion of districts," it says, not "the overall winner." There is no way to possibly twist this language to service your interpretation of proportionality; it's very clear that the amendment intends for true proportionality to be in effect, and not whatever weird interpretation of it they allegedly have in South Australia.

I additionally take issue with your characterizing correcting for a geographic bias as "gerrymandering." Firstly, Ohio's geographic bias isn't even that bad now since so many of the rurals have sprinted right. Secondly, it's clear that the Ohio constitution doesn't agree with your definition of gerrymandering, or else it wouldn't have included the proportionality clause. It would make no sense to demand proportionality if one characterizes any attempt to do so as "primarily favor[ing] or disfavor[ing]" a political party! For all the bellyaching about textualism from conservatives, you sure seem remarkably willing to bend over backwards in service of absurd textual leaps when it services your own interests.

1) Elections are free in this country. People may vote for whomever they want, for any reason, or no reason at all. Any particular election is not bound by any previous election. Thus, one of the outcomes the people of Ohio could choose is electing 99 Republican state representatives, and, another is that they could choose to elect 99 Democrats.  People have a right to select who they wish to represent them. Political parties have no right to win any seat.

2) Everything thing you wrote is premised on the false notion that any political party is entitled to any seat.

3) When one sees through the false premise, it clear that the alleged objection to the map has no basis in the text of the Ohio Constitution you cite: if every voter voted as they did on average over the last ten years [something they have no obligation whatsoever to do] in every district, the outcome would be "proportional" to average of the last ten years.  The requirement is fulfilled.

Partisan Democrats on the Supreme Court, and, one self-described "Republican" are asserting, against the Constitution, and against the notion of rule by law, the Democratic party is entitled to entitled to seats that are non-competitive, which is a joke.

4) In near-term elections, any "proportional map" is quite apt elect more Republicans than projected, since Republicans have in recent elections won most of the close seats, so they will have the advantages one has running for reelection.

5) When drawing district lines where decisions have to be taken, it has always been understood that invariable choosing the option that favors one political party over the other is the very definition of the English word "gerrymandering." Your remarks are Orwellian. Just be honest and state, "The geographical deficits the Democrats face ought to be overcome by carefully gerrymandering the state in favor of the Democrats [to the extent necessary."] However, doing so you would have to admit the provisions are inherently self-contradictory in an alleged "anti-gerrymandering" Amendment.

6) The outcome the Democrats are pursuing is unjust to the people of Ohio.  If you aim to lock in 14 or 15 Democrats, you must equally lock in 18 or 19 Republicans seats. You just made elections in Ohio a formality.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1253 on: April 29, 2022, 10:38:43 AM »

They somehow managed to avoid contempt of court.

1) Because they are not in contempt as matter of the right and wrong of it; and

2) Doing so would be a raw exercise in power, except, the in response, in a raw exercise in power, the legislature could impeach any, or all, judges voting for contempt.

The rulings have been a joke. "Fair redistricting" is a phantom that simply doesn't exist. A reasonable notion of "fair" would grant Cincinatti, Akron, and Toledo, one state senate seat for the Democrats, Columbus and Cleveland 2 each for the Democrats, a few swing districts centered in Dayton, and the Columbus suburbs. The rest of the state would be so overwhelming Republican that any randomly generated map would be a sweep, or near sweep for the GOP. The court is demanding that the people who are responsible for executing the laws of Ohio to willfully violate those laws by taking a series of decision to favor the Democrats by carefully cracking urban areas to maximize the number of Democratic seats, etc.

The court doesn't have the authority to issue a partisan Democratic gerrymander, and, lacks the courage to articulate that that is what they are demanding.

There is a constitutional requirement for proportionality. Personally, I think this requirement kind of sucks, but I didn't put it there, and neither did the court.

And, there is a Constitutional requirement not to favor either political party in redistricting.  The requirements are self-contradictory, and, can only be reconciled by 1) acknowledging that the GOP has a more efficient distribution of voters, and, therefore, is apt to win a larger percentage of the seats; or 2) produce a Democratic gerrymander.  The Court is demanding the latter, but, is failing to be intellectual honest about it.

Nor, can I let pass without comment the false notion that the interpretation the Court asserted concerning "proportionality" is written in the Ohio Constitution. South Australia has the same provision, which has always been understood to mean that if you win a clear majority you are very apt to win, and a tiny majority, you ought to win. But, if you fall short of the majority, it never asserted that 46% is entitled to 46% of the seats. In single-seat, winner-take-all multi-district elections the drop off can be quite steep.

Article XI, Section 6(B) of the Ohio Constitution:

"The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio."

The "statewide proportion of districts," it says, not "the overall winner." There is no way to possibly twist this language to service your interpretation of proportionality; it's very clear that the amendment intends for true proportionality to be in effect, and not whatever weird interpretation of it they allegedly have in South Australia.

I additionally take issue with your characterizing correcting for a geographic bias as "gerrymandering." Firstly, Ohio's geographic bias isn't even that bad now since so many of the rurals have sprinted right. Secondly, it's clear that the Ohio constitution doesn't agree with your definition of gerrymandering, or else it wouldn't have included the proportionality clause. It would make no sense to demand proportionality if one characterizes any attempt to do so as "primarily favor[ing] or disfavor[ing]" a political party! For all the bellyaching about textualism from conservatives, you sure seem remarkably willing to bend over backwards in service of absurd textual leaps when it services your own interests.

1) Elections are free in this country. People may vote for whomever they want, for any reason, or no reason at all. Any particular election is not bound by any previous election. Thus, one of the outcomes the people of Ohio could choose is electing 99 Republican state representatives, and, another is that they could choose to elect 99 Democrats.  People have a right to select who they wish to represent them. Political parties have no right to win any seat.

2) Everything thing you wrote is premised on the false notion that any political party is entitled to any seat.

3) When one sees through the false premise, it clear that the alleged objection to the map has no basis in the text of the Ohio Constitution you cite: if every voter voted as they did on average over the last ten years [something they have no obligation whatsoever to do] in every district, the outcome would be "proportional" to average of the last ten years.  The requirement is fulfilled.

Partisan Democrats on the Supreme Court, and, one self-described "Republican" are asserting, against the Constitution, and against the notion of rule by law, the Democratic party is entitled to entitled to seats that are non-competitive, which is a joke.

4) In near-term elections, any "proportional map" is quite apt elect more Republicans than projected, since Republicans have in recent elections won most of the close seats, so they will have the advantages one has running for reelection.

5) When drawing district lines where decisions have to be taken, it has always been understood that invariable choosing the option that favors one political party over the other is the very definition of the English word "gerrymandering." Your remarks are Orwellian. Just be honest and state, "The geographical deficits the Democrats face ought to be overcome by carefully gerrymandering the state in favor of the Democrats [to the extent necessary."] However, doing so you would have to admit the provisions are inherently self-contradictory in an alleged "anti-gerrymandering" Amendment.

6) The outcome the Democrats are pursuing is unjust to the people of Ohio.  If you aim to lock in 14 or 15 Democrats, you must equally lock in 18 or 19 Republicans seats. You just made elections in Ohio a formality.


In Florida suddenly Republicans everywhere like on RRH and Ifromnj are praising Compactness as the end all be all most noble metric to use everywhere, simply because that's what Desantis' map is based on.

Why not apply the same metric to Ohio and create compact districts in Hamilton, Franklin, Cuyahoga, and Summit?   Why the double standard here?
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #1254 on: April 29, 2022, 10:39:12 AM »

With all that being said, I've been playing around with the Ohio Senate map and the county rules do make it really annoying to get to the magic number of 15 blue districts. There are a number of obvious/pretty easy ones:

- 4 from Franklin
- 4 from Cuyahoga + Lake
- 1 from Summit
- 1 from Hamilton
- 1 from Montgomery
- 1 from Lucas

That still just leaves you at 12, though. The easiest one to do next would be another Hamilton blue district, which is fair, except you can't split Warren or Clermont and Butler needs a district wholly within it. I think the easiest thing to do here is put the Butler district in the east and then stretch a district from Preble south through a strip of leftover Butler in the west to the red parts of Hamilton, which lets you make the second Hamilton district blue. Due to county split rules in NEOH, the only real feasible way to get another blue district there is to combine the city of Akron with Portage, leaving the rest of Summit district narrowly blue. Finally, you have to compensate for not being able to do a Mahoning/Trumbull district; the only way I could find was to really cherrypick for the blue precincts in Toledo and combine that with Wood, Ottowa, Erie, and some of Sandusky for another narrowly blue district.

Honestly, both the county split and proportionality rules are dumb. You can tell what a fair map is without these strict rules.

Honestly, the provisions against county splits are a reasonable restraint on map makers doing whatever they want, willy nilly. When we don't have restraints, we start seeing absurdities such as cracking the suburbs of Columbus to elect exclusively Democrats, with the resulting disenfranchisement of Republican leaning suburban voters.

The "proportional" goal is absurd because the citizens of Cleveland are entitled to exactly two State Senators, and, if they do so 80-20 Democrat, as opposed the 54-46, that does not entitle them to elect another Democrat somewhere outside of Cleveland. The rest of the state is free to vote for whomever they want to represent them, and, not Cleveland.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1255 on: April 29, 2022, 10:43:14 AM »
« Edited: April 29, 2022, 10:48:22 AM by lfromnj »

They somehow managed to avoid contempt of court.

1) Because they are not in contempt as matter of the right and wrong of it; and

2) Doing so would be a raw exercise in power, except, the in response, in a raw exercise in power, the legislature could impeach any, or all, judges voting for contempt.

The rulings have been a joke. "Fair redistricting" is a phantom that simply doesn't exist. A reasonable notion of "fair" would grant Cincinatti, Akron, and Toledo, one state senate seat for the Democrats, Columbus and Cleveland 2 each for the Democrats, a few swing districts centered in Dayton, and the Columbus suburbs. The rest of the state would be so overwhelming Republican that any randomly generated map would be a sweep, or near sweep for the GOP. The court is demanding that the people who are responsible for executing the laws of Ohio to willfully violate those laws by taking a series of decision to favor the Democrats by carefully cracking urban areas to maximize the number of Democratic seats, etc.

The court doesn't have the authority to issue a partisan Democratic gerrymander, and, lacks the courage to articulate that that is what they are demanding.

There is a constitutional requirement for proportionality. Personally, I think this requirement kind of sucks, but I didn't put it there, and neither did the court.

And, there is a Constitutional requirement not to favor either political party in redistricting.  The requirements are self-contradictory, and, can only be reconciled by 1) acknowledging that the GOP has a more efficient distribution of voters, and, therefore, is apt to win a larger percentage of the seats; or 2) produce a Democratic gerrymander.  The Court is demanding the latter, but, is failing to be intellectual honest about it.

Nor, can I let pass without comment the false notion that the interpretation the Court asserted concerning "proportionality" is written in the Ohio Constitution. South Australia has the same provision, which has always been understood to mean that if you win a clear majority you are very apt to win, and a tiny majority, you ought to win. But, if you fall short of the majority, it never asserted that 46% is entitled to 46% of the seats. In single-seat, winner-take-all multi-district elections the drop off can be quite steep.

Article XI, Section 6(B) of the Ohio Constitution:

"The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio."

The "statewide proportion of districts," it says, not "the overall winner." There is no way to possibly twist this language to service your interpretation of proportionality; it's very clear that the amendment intends for true proportionality to be in effect, and not whatever weird interpretation of it they allegedly have in South Australia.

I additionally take issue with your characterizing correcting for a geographic bias as "gerrymandering." Firstly, Ohio's geographic bias isn't even that bad now since so many of the rurals have sprinted right. Secondly, it's clear that the Ohio constitution doesn't agree with your definition of gerrymandering, or else it wouldn't have included the proportionality clause. It would make no sense to demand proportionality if one characterizes any attempt to do so as "primarily favor[ing] or disfavor[ing]" a political party! For all the bellyaching about textualism from conservatives, you sure seem remarkably willing to bend over backwards in service of absurd textual leaps when it services your own interests.

1) Elections are free in this country. People may vote for whomever they want, for any reason, or no reason at all. Any particular election is not bound by any previous election. Thus, one of the outcomes the people of Ohio could choose is electing 99 Republican state representatives, and, another is that they could choose to elect 99 Democrats.  People have a right to select who they wish to represent them. Political parties have no right to win any seat.

2) Everything thing you wrote is premised on the false notion that any political party is entitled to any seat.

3) When one sees through the false premise, it clear that the alleged objection to the map has no basis in the text of the Ohio Constitution you cite: if every voter voted as they did on average over the last ten years [something they have no obligation whatsoever to do] in every district, the outcome would be "proportional" to average of the last ten years.  The requirement is fulfilled.

Partisan Democrats on the Supreme Court, and, one self-described "Republican" are asserting, against the Constitution, and against the notion of rule by law, the Democratic party is entitled to entitled to seats that are non-competitive, which is a joke.

4) In near-term elections, any "proportional map" is quite apt elect more Republicans than projected, since Republicans have in recent elections won most of the close seats, so they will have the advantages one has running for reelection.

5) When drawing district lines where decisions have to be taken, it has always been understood that invariable choosing the option that favors one political party over the other is the very definition of the English word "gerrymandering." Your remarks are Orwellian. Just be honest and state, "The geographical deficits the Democrats face ought to be overcome by carefully gerrymandering the state in favor of the Democrats [to the extent necessary."] However, doing so you would have to admit the provisions are inherently self-contradictory in an alleged "anti-gerrymandering" Amendment.

6) The outcome the Democrats are pursuing is unjust to the people of Ohio.  If you aim to lock in 14 or 15 Democrats, you must equally lock in 18 or 19 Republicans seats. You just made elections in Ohio a formality.


In Florida suddenly Republicans everywhere like on RRH and Ifromnj are praising Compactness as the end all be all most noble metric to use everywhere, simply because that's what Desantis' map is based on.

Why not apply the same metric to Ohio and create compact districts in Hamilton, Franklin, Cuyahoga, and Summit?   Why the double standard here?

Ive always said the FL map is a gerrymander and a gerrymander is illegal under the FDA?, I just noted it is a very aesthetic gerrymander in comparison to both NY/OH which decided to flagrantly disregard all measures.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1256 on: April 29, 2022, 10:48:59 AM »

With all that being said, I've been playing around with the Ohio Senate map and the county rules do make it really annoying to get to the magic number of 15 blue districts. There are a number of obvious/pretty easy ones:

- 4 from Franklin
- 4 from Cuyahoga + Lake
- 1 from Summit
- 1 from Hamilton
- 1 from Montgomery
- 1 from Lucas

That still just leaves you at 12, though. The easiest one to do next would be another Hamilton blue district, which is fair, except you can't split Warren or Clermont and Butler needs a district wholly within it. I think the easiest thing to do here is put the Butler district in the east and then stretch a district from Preble south through a strip of leftover Butler in the west to the red parts of Hamilton, which lets you make the second Hamilton district blue. Due to county split rules in NEOH, the only real feasible way to get another blue district there is to combine the city of Akron with Portage, leaving the rest of Summit district narrowly blue. Finally, you have to compensate for not being able to do a Mahoning/Trumbull district; the only way I could find was to really cherrypick for the blue precincts in Toledo and combine that with Wood, Ottowa, Erie, and some of Sandusky for another narrowly blue district.

Honestly, both the county split and proportionality rules are dumb. You can tell what a fair map is without these strict rules.

Honestly, the provisions against county splits are a reasonable restraint on map makers doing whatever they want, willy nilly. When we don't have restraints, we start seeing absurdities such as cracking the suburbs of Columbus to elect exclusively Democrats, with the resulting disenfranchisement of Republican leaning suburban voters.

The "proportional" goal is absurd because the citizens of Cleveland are entitled to exactly two State Senators, and, if they do so 80-20 Democrat, as opposed the 54-46, that does not entitle them to elect another Democrat somewhere outside of Cleveland. The rest of the state is free to vote for whomever they want to represent them, and, not Cleveland.

The provisions against county splits are fine in 80% of the state. However they really do mess up NE Ohio.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #1257 on: April 29, 2022, 11:08:00 AM »

They somehow managed to avoid contempt of court.

1) Because they are not in contempt as matter of the right and wrong of it; and

2) Doing so would be a raw exercise in power, except, the in response, in a raw exercise in power, the legislature could impeach any, or all, judges voting for contempt.

The rulings have been a joke. "Fair redistricting" is a phantom that simply doesn't exist. A reasonable notion of "fair" would grant Cincinatti, Akron, and Toledo, one state senate seat for the Democrats, Columbus and Cleveland 2 each for the Democrats, a few swing districts centered in Dayton, and the Columbus suburbs. The rest of the state would be so overwhelming Republican that any randomly generated map would be a sweep, or near sweep for the GOP. The court is demanding that the people who are responsible for executing the laws of Ohio to willfully violate those laws by taking a series of decision to favor the Democrats by carefully cracking urban areas to maximize the number of Democratic seats, etc.

The court doesn't have the authority to issue a partisan Democratic gerrymander, and, lacks the courage to articulate that that is what they are demanding.

There is a constitutional requirement for proportionality. Personally, I think this requirement kind of sucks, but I didn't put it there, and neither did the court.

And, there is a Constitutional requirement not to favor either political party in redistricting.  The requirements are self-contradictory, and, can only be reconciled by 1) acknowledging that the GOP has a more efficient distribution of voters, and, therefore, is apt to win a larger percentage of the seats; or 2) produce a Democratic gerrymander.  The Court is demanding the latter, but, is failing to be intellectual honest about it.

Nor, can I let pass without comment the false notion that the interpretation the Court asserted concerning "proportionality" is written in the Ohio Constitution. South Australia has the same provision, which has always been understood to mean that if you win a clear majority you are very apt to win, and a tiny majority, you ought to win. But, if you fall short of the majority, it never asserted that 46% is entitled to 46% of the seats. In single-seat, winner-take-all multi-district elections the drop off can be quite steep.

Article XI, Section 6(B) of the Ohio Constitution:

"The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio."

The "statewide proportion of districts," it says, not "the overall winner." There is no way to possibly twist this language to service your interpretation of proportionality; it's very clear that the amendment intends for true proportionality to be in effect, and not whatever weird interpretation of it they allegedly have in South Australia.

I additionally take issue with your characterizing correcting for a geographic bias as "gerrymandering." Firstly, Ohio's geographic bias isn't even that bad now since so many of the rurals have sprinted right. Secondly, it's clear that the Ohio constitution doesn't agree with your definition of gerrymandering, or else it wouldn't have included the proportionality clause. It would make no sense to demand proportionality if one characterizes any attempt to do so as "primarily favor[ing] or disfavor[ing]" a political party! For all the bellyaching about textualism from conservatives, you sure seem remarkably willing to bend over backwards in service of absurd textual leaps when it services your own interests.

1) Elections are free in this country. People may vote for whomever they want, for any reason, or no reason at all. Any particular election is not bound by any previous election. Thus, one of the outcomes the people of Ohio could choose is electing 99 Republican state representatives, and, another is that they could choose to elect 99 Democrats.  People have a right to select who they wish to represent them. Political parties have no right to win any seat.

2) Everything thing you wrote is premised on the false notion that any political party is entitled to any seat.

3) When one sees through the false premise, it clear that the alleged objection to the map has no basis in the text of the Ohio Constitution you cite: if every voter voted as they did on average over the last ten years [something they have no obligation whatsoever to do] in every district, the outcome would be "proportional" to average of the last ten years.  The requirement is fulfilled.

Partisan Democrats on the Supreme Court, and, one self-described "Republican" are asserting, against the Constitution, and against the notion of rule by law, the Democratic party is entitled to entitled to seats that are non-competitive, which is a joke.

4) In near-term elections, any "proportional map" is quite apt elect more Republicans than projected, since Republicans have in recent elections won most of the close seats, so they will have the advantages one has running for reelection.

5) When drawing district lines where decisions have to be taken, it has always been understood that invariable choosing the option that favors one political party over the other is the very definition of the English word "gerrymandering." Your remarks are Orwellian. Just be honest and state, "The geographical deficits the Democrats face ought to be overcome by carefully gerrymandering the state in favor of the Democrats [to the extent necessary."] However, doing so you would have to admit the provisions are inherently self-contradictory in an alleged "anti-gerrymandering" Amendment.

6) The outcome the Democrats are pursuing is unjust to the people of Ohio.  If you aim to lock in 14 or 15 Democrats, you must equally lock in 18 or 19 Republicans seats. You just made elections in Ohio a formality.


In Florida suddenly Republicans everywhere like on RRH and Ifromnj are praising Compactness as the end all be all most noble metric to use everywhere, simply because that's what Desantis' map is based on.

Why not apply the same metric to Ohio and create compact districts in Hamilton, Franklin, Cuyahoga, and Summit?   Why the double standard here?

Summit is compact. Franklin isn't non-compact, and is certainly reasonably compact. Cuyahoga county has VRA concerns that trump compactness. But, Cuyahoga isn't non-compact, either. Hamilton, is not compact. Perhaps, the Cincinatti area  is not egregiously non-compact, perhaps, it is.

Having some continuity between the existing seats, and, the new seats has some value.

Had the Democrats asked for one seat in Hamilton, they might have obtained it. But, they wanted the Sun and Moon, and, they received nothing. Sucks to be them.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1258 on: April 29, 2022, 11:16:45 AM »



Summit is compact. Franklin isn't non-compact, and is certainly reasonably compact. Cuyahoga county has VRA concerns that trump compactness. But, Cuyahoga isn't non-compact, either. Hamilton, is not compact. Perhaps, the Cincinatti area  is not egregiously non-compact, perhaps, it is.

Having some continuity between the existing seats, and, the new seats has some value.

Had the Democrats asked for one seat in Hamilton, they might have obtained it. But, they wanted the Sun and Moon, and, they received nothing. Sucks to be them.

So what about that Lorrain to Mercer district?  You're saying there's no partisan intent there either?  

You seem to really go out of your way to advantage Republicans at every angle here.

I would think if you want voters to vote for whoever they want and don't want parts of the state to get too much representation, you'd do the same metric for rural areas spilling too much into suburban areas.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #1259 on: April 29, 2022, 11:28:29 AM »

They somehow managed to avoid contempt of court.

1) Because they are not in contempt as matter of the right and wrong of it; and

2) Doing so would be a raw exercise in power, except, the in response, in a raw exercise in power, the legislature could impeach any, or all, judges voting for contempt.

The rulings have been a joke. "Fair redistricting" is a phantom that simply doesn't exist. A reasonable notion of "fair" would grant Cincinatti, Akron, and Toledo, one state senate seat for the Democrats, Columbus and Cleveland 2 each for the Democrats, a few swing districts centered in Dayton, and the Columbus suburbs. The rest of the state would be so overwhelming Republican that any randomly generated map would be a sweep, or near sweep for the GOP. The court is demanding that the people who are responsible for executing the laws of Ohio to willfully violate those laws by taking a series of decision to favor the Democrats by carefully cracking urban areas to maximize the number of Democratic seats, etc.

The court doesn't have the authority to issue a partisan Democratic gerrymander, and, lacks the courage to articulate that that is what they are demanding.

There is a constitutional requirement for proportionality. Personally, I think this requirement kind of sucks, but I didn't put it there, and neither did the court.

And, there is a Constitutional requirement not to favor either political party in redistricting.  The requirements are self-contradictory, and, can only be reconciled by 1) acknowledging that the GOP has a more efficient distribution of voters, and, therefore, is apt to win a larger percentage of the seats; or 2) produce a Democratic gerrymander.  The Court is demanding the latter, but, is failing to be intellectual honest about it.

Nor, can I let pass without comment the false notion that the interpretation the Court asserted concerning "proportionality" is written in the Ohio Constitution. South Australia has the same provision, which has always been understood to mean that if you win a clear majority you are very apt to win, and a tiny majority, you ought to win. But, if you fall short of the majority, it never asserted that 46% is entitled to 46% of the seats. In single-seat, winner-take-all multi-district elections the drop off can be quite steep.

Article XI, Section 6(B) of the Ohio Constitution:

"The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio."

The "statewide proportion of districts," it says, not "the overall winner." There is no way to possibly twist this language to service your interpretation of proportionality; it's very clear that the amendment intends for true proportionality to be in effect, and not whatever weird interpretation of it they allegedly have in South Australia.

I additionally take issue with your characterizing correcting for a geographic bias as "gerrymandering." Firstly, Ohio's geographic bias isn't even that bad now since so many of the rurals have sprinted right. Secondly, it's clear that the Ohio constitution doesn't agree with your definition of gerrymandering, or else it wouldn't have included the proportionality clause. It would make no sense to demand proportionality if one characterizes any attempt to do so as "primarily favor[ing] or disfavor[ing]" a political party! For all the bellyaching about textualism from conservatives, you sure seem remarkably willing to bend over backwards in service of absurd textual leaps when it services your own interests.

1) Elections are free in this country. People may vote for whomever they want, for any reason, or no reason at all. Any particular election is not bound by any previous election. Thus, one of the outcomes the people of Ohio could choose is electing 99 Republican state representatives, and, another is that they could choose to elect 99 Democrats.  People have a right to select who they wish to represent them. Political parties have no right to win any seat.

2) Everything thing you wrote is premised on the false notion that any political party is entitled to any seat.

3) When one sees through the false premise, it clear that the alleged objection to the map has no basis in the text of the Ohio Constitution you cite: if every voter voted as they did on average over the last ten years [something they have no obligation whatsoever to do] in every district, the outcome would be "proportional" to average of the last ten years.  The requirement is fulfilled.

Partisan Democrats on the Supreme Court, and, one self-described "Republican" are asserting, against the Constitution, and against the notion of rule by law, the Democratic party is entitled to entitled to seats that are non-competitive, which is a joke.

4) In near-term elections, any "proportional map" is quite apt elect more Republicans than projected, since Republicans have in recent elections won most of the close seats, so they will have the advantages one has running for reelection.

5) When drawing district lines where decisions have to be taken, it has always been understood that invariable choosing the option that favors one political party over the other is the very definition of the English word "gerrymandering." Your remarks are Orwellian. Just be honest and state, "The geographical deficits the Democrats face ought to be overcome by carefully gerrymandering the state in favor of the Democrats [to the extent necessary."] However, doing so you would have to admit the provisions are inherently self-contradictory in an alleged "anti-gerrymandering" Amendment.

6) The outcome the Democrats are pursuing is unjust to the people of Ohio.  If you aim to lock in 14 or 15 Democrats, you must equally lock in 18 or 19 Republicans seats. You just made elections in Ohio a formality.


In Florida suddenly Republicans everywhere like on RRH and Ifromnj are praising Compactness as the end all be all most noble metric to use everywhere, simply because that's what Desantis' map is based on.

Why not apply the same metric to Ohio and create compact districts in Hamilton, Franklin, Cuyahoga, and Summit?   Why the double standard here?

Ive always said the FL map is a gerrymander and a gerrymander is illegal under the FDA?, I just noted it is a very aesthetic gerrymander in comparison to both NY/OH which decided to flagrantly disregard all measures.

Since when are you the standard by which Truth is determined? You have an opinion on the Florida map regarding "gerrymandering."   The decisions taken to connect Tallahassee and Jacksonville, shed  Northern Pinellas county, rather than parts of St. Pete, and the decision to attach urban Orange county to Seminole  rather than extending further outward were all decisions that favored the Democrats in the last map. This maps takes the opposite decisions. The Seminole decision is entirely reasonable, and, natural consequence of placing the new district mid-state, pushing the Orlando area districts Eastwards as a result. The Tallahassee to Jacksonville district was a gerrymandered one. Score that decision on the side of righteousness. In Pinelass, my personal preference is keeping suburbs intact rather than urban areas.  To each his own, I suppose. Water continuity was upheld for the legislative maps. The rest of the dstricts aren't that different.

The previous map was proposed by plaintiffs favoring the Democrats. It was deemed "fair" and imposed on the legislature without input or modification. It was a soft Democratic gerrymander.  The decision taken by a gerrymander don't have to internalized by the legislature. Whether, or not, this map meets your, or my, definition of soft "gerrymander," it should be will within the FDA.
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« Reply #1260 on: April 29, 2022, 01:08:34 PM »

With all that being said, I've been playing around with the Ohio Senate map and the county rules do make it really annoying to get to the magic number of 15 blue districts. There are a number of obvious/pretty easy ones:

- 4 from Franklin
- 4 from Cuyahoga + Lake
- 1 from Summit
- 1 from Hamilton
- 1 from Montgomery
- 1 from Lucas

That still just leaves you at 12, though. The easiest one to do next would be another Hamilton blue district, which is fair, except you can't split Warren or Clermont and Butler needs a district wholly within it. I think the easiest thing to do here is put the Butler district in the east and then stretch a district from Preble south through a strip of leftover Butler in the west to the red parts of Hamilton, which lets you make the second Hamilton district blue. Due to county split rules in NEOH, the only real feasible way to get another blue district there is to combine the city of Akron with Portage, leaving the rest of Summit district narrowly blue. Finally, you have to compensate for not being able to do a Mahoning/Trumbull district; the only way I could find was to really cherrypick for the blue precincts in Toledo and combine that with Wood, Ottowa, Erie, and some of Sandusky for another narrowly blue district.

Honestly, both the county split and proportionality rules are dumb. You can tell what a fair map is without these strict rules.

Honestly, the provisions against county splits are a reasonable restraint on map makers doing whatever they want, willy nilly. When we don't have restraints, we start seeing absurdities such as cracking the suburbs of Columbus to elect exclusively Democrats, with the resulting disenfranchisement of Republican leaning suburban voters.

The "proportional" goal is absurd because the citizens of Cleveland are entitled to exactly two State Senators, and, if they do so 80-20 Democrat, as opposed the 54-46, that does not entitle them to elect another Democrat somewhere outside of Cleveland. The rest of the state is free to vote for whomever they want to represent them, and, not Cleveland.

Exactly right. Gerrymandering towards “fair” outcomes is still gerrymandering. There is no entitlement for any party to win a certain number of seats. Every citizen is entitled a vote, and it should not impact any other part of the state if there’s a bunch of democrats in Cleveland (or republicans in Amarillo for that matter)
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« Reply #1261 on: April 29, 2022, 01:34:27 PM »

With all that being said, I've been playing around with the Ohio Senate map and the county rules do make it really annoying to get to the magic number of 15 blue districts. There are a number of obvious/pretty easy ones:

- 4 from Franklin
- 4 from Cuyahoga + Lake
- 1 from Summit
- 1 from Hamilton
- 1 from Montgomery
- 1 from Lucas

That still just leaves you at 12, though. The easiest one to do next would be another Hamilton blue district, which is fair, except you can't split Warren or Clermont and Butler needs a district wholly within it. I think the easiest thing to do here is put the Butler district in the east and then stretch a district from Preble south through a strip of leftover Butler in the west to the red parts of Hamilton, which lets you make the second Hamilton district blue. Due to county split rules in NEOH, the only real feasible way to get another blue district there is to combine the city of Akron with Portage, leaving the rest of Summit district narrowly blue. Finally, you have to compensate for not being able to do a Mahoning/Trumbull district; the only way I could find was to really cherrypick for the blue precincts in Toledo and combine that with Wood, Ottowa, Erie, and some of Sandusky for another narrowly blue district.

Honestly, both the county split and proportionality rules are dumb. You can tell what a fair map is without these strict rules.

Honestly, the provisions against county splits are a reasonable restraint on map makers doing whatever they want, willy nilly. When we don't have restraints, we start seeing absurdities such as cracking the suburbs of Columbus to elect exclusively Democrats, with the resulting disenfranchisement of Republican leaning suburban voters.

The "proportional" goal is absurd because the citizens of Cleveland are entitled to exactly two State Senators, and, if they do so 80-20 Democrat, as opposed the 54-46, that does not entitle them to elect another Democrat somewhere outside of Cleveland. The rest of the state is free to vote for whomever they want to represent them, and, not Cleveland.

The provisions against county splits are fine in 80% of the state. However they really do mess up NE Ohio.

They restrain unlimited discretion in NE Ohio, as elsewhere. Unlimited discretion facilitates gerrymandering. That is the beauty of limits on splitting counties.  It is objective,  and almost immutable, unlike nebulous terms such as "communities of interest" which allow mapmakers to rationalize what they want to do [often partisan gerrymandering.]
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« Reply #1262 on: April 29, 2022, 03:12:02 PM »

The Ohio thing has confused me…

Can someone just give me a cliff notes version…

Dems are F’ed right? Even though OSC ruled in their favor?…
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« Reply #1263 on: April 29, 2022, 03:27:35 PM »

The Ohio thing has confused me…

Can someone just give me a cliff notes version…

Dems are F’ed right? Even though OSC ruled in their favor?…

Congressionly partially.  Legislatively they just failed to get a Democratic gerrymander
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« Reply #1264 on: May 01, 2022, 06:03:37 PM »



Summit is compact. Franklin isn't non-compact, and is certainly reasonably compact. Cuyahoga county has VRA concerns that trump compactness. But, Cuyahoga isn't non-compact, either. Hamilton, is not compact. Perhaps, the Cincinatti area  is not egregiously non-compact, perhaps, it is.

Having some continuity between the existing seats, and, the new seats has some value.

Had the Democrats asked for one seat in Hamilton, they might have obtained it. But, they wanted the Sun and Moon, and, they received nothing. Sucks to be them.

So what about that Lorrain to Mercer district?  You're saying there's no partisan intent there either?  

You seem to really go out of your way to advantage Republicans at every angle here.

I would think if you want voters to vote for whoever they want and don't want parts of the state to get too much representation, you'd do the same metric for rural areas spilling too much into suburban areas.

What I read a lot in this forum is particularly democratic-favoring posters who are way to quick
to scream "gerrrymandering" when map makers don't invariably choose the option democrats would prefer when faced with multiple options. I have merely noted that there exists explanations for the decisions taken other than it is a particularly egregious Republican gerrymander.

For instance, in the last state senate map, Dayton's population was about two districts, and, its suburbs more than three. The Republicans kept the three suburban districts intact, and, paired the two Dayton districts with a third district farther out. Many cried "gerrymander," but, that claim is far from obvious. If Dayton's population was more than a state Senate district, then it seems unreasonable to crack it. Well, if Dayton's suburbs have more than one district's worth of population then it is not unreasonable to refuse to crack them?

Lorain had to be paired with some county. If you have some reason to object, by all means state it.

Cities such as Akron, Cleveland, and Cincinatti are reasonably compact. The rural areas are defuse. You would have to give up compactness to avoid crossing into metro areas,  Generally, the suburbs are between rural areas and the larger cities.

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« Reply #1265 on: May 04, 2022, 06:34:03 AM »

So given that the Congressional primaries already happened, has the OHSC just totally dropped the ball on the congressional gerrymandering lawsuit?
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« Reply #1266 on: May 04, 2022, 06:25:00 PM »

So given that the Congressional primaries already happened, has the OHSC just totally dropped the ball on the congressional gerrymandering lawsuit?

I think the commission basically succeeded in running out the clock after the federal court ruled that no new maps being drawn would make the current bulls*** configuration official. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy based on yet more courts being nothing but a platform for political hacks to be hacks.

Our court system, in addition to so much else in this country is a f***ing joke.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1267 on: May 04, 2022, 06:26:42 PM »

So given that the Congressional primaries already happened, has the OHSC just totally dropped the ball on the congressional gerrymandering lawsuit?

I think the commission basically succeeded in running out the clock after the federal court ruled that no new maps being drawn would make the current bulls*** configuration official. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy based on yet more courts being nothing but a platform for political hacks to be hacks.

Our court system, in addition to so much else in this country is a f***ing joke.

You mixed up legislative and congressional. The courts can draw the maps congressional but can not draw them legislatively.
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« Reply #1268 on: May 04, 2022, 06:27:51 PM »

So given that the Congressional primaries already happened, has the OHSC just totally dropped the ball on the congressional gerrymandering lawsuit?

I think the commission basically succeeded in running out the clock after the federal court ruled that no new maps being drawn would make the current bulls*** configuration official. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy based on yet more courts being nothing but a platform for political hacks to be hacks.

Our court system, in addition to so much else in this country is a f***ing joke.

You mixed up legislative and congressional. The courts can draw the maps congressional but can not draw them legislatively.

Oh, fair enough. I wasn't entirely sure.
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« Reply #1269 on: May 04, 2022, 06:38:57 PM »

I thought the Congressional primaries we're delayed? Did they also happen yesterday?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1270 on: May 04, 2022, 06:40:11 PM »

I thought the Congressional primaries we're delayed? Did they also happen yesterday?

Nope, the map is still legal as of today, and the trial is taking some time to finish it out because the court closed the initial case so they have to start all over.
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« Reply #1271 on: May 04, 2022, 06:42:06 PM »

I thought the Congressional primaries we're delayed? Did they also happen yesterday?

Nope, the map is still legal as of today, and the trial is taking some time to finish it out because the court closed the initial case so they have to start all over.
So the court could theoretically invalidate it and order a new primary but we don't know if that'll happen?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1272 on: May 04, 2022, 06:44:31 PM »

I thought the Congressional primaries we're delayed? Did they also happen yesterday?

Nope, the map is still legal as of today, and the trial is taking some time to finish it out because the court closed the initial case so they have to start all over.
So the court could theoretically invalidate it and order a new primary but we don't know if that'll happen?

Theoretically but the court seems to be limited in a lot of procedural stuff. Even the ACLU/LWV are saying they want new maps for 2024.

The legislative maps are a different story because the court can't even draw maps as it is stated explicilty in the constitution. However the court somehow decided to have partisan symmetry while also requiring PR.  Anyone who knows basic partisan fairness measures would know the court effectively required a Democratic gerrymander. In the end the R's just ran out the clock there and map 3 will be enacted which is a map with 28 Safe D seats, 18 competive seats and the rest being R. Based on the limited procedural path the court is taking I think the court is more dumb on the legislative maps than anything else.
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« Reply #1273 on: May 04, 2022, 06:52:50 PM »

The OHSC really dropped the ball on the Congressional map. It's beyond pathetic. Even when you have a Republican court who believes in doing the right thing and holding the GOP to account, they manage to f**k it up through sheer incompetence. I honestly can't be mad at the GOP commissioners for this - when you're playing against amateurs, of course you're going to go bold.

Looking forward to the FLSC either being nakedly partisan or nakedly incompetent like here.
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« Reply #1274 on: May 04, 2022, 07:11:53 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2022, 07:11:53 AM by lfromnj »



Democrats should take this offer. It even removes most of the Dayton gerrymander, and makes it a decent bit better for Democrats at Biden +9.

edit: Never mind the map actually is illegal, however it should be easy to fix. Let's see how open they are. Democrats really need to negotiate before their caucus is further decimated.

The map even removes the Delaware county gerrymander. Overall its actually quite fair.
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