Ohio redistricting thread
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #125 on: May 04, 2020, 02:08:25 PM »

What happens if Chabot loses to Kate schroder, what does the GOP do then?
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #126 on: May 05, 2020, 05:45:56 AM »

I don't think it makes a material difference. You can draw the Cincinnati district to be as Republican as possible without making any other seat marginal, so there's no downside to it for Republicans. There would need to be evidence of a big shift in the Hamilton County suburbs before it became worth conceding a district there.
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catographer
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« Reply #127 on: May 06, 2020, 10:20:47 PM »

Realistic GOP gerrymander 2021:
- 11 Safe GOP seats to 4 Safe Dem seats. Only OH-01 and OH-14 are realistically capable of flipping this decade in a Blue Wave, but both more Republican than their predecessors.
- Chose not to create a new swing/GOP seat in Mahoning Valley because it wouldn't be safe for GOP, and unsure whether trends there will continue.

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lfromnj
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« Reply #128 on: May 06, 2020, 10:25:42 PM »

Realistic GOP gerrymander 2021:
- 11 Safe GOP seats to 4 Safe Dem seats. Only OH-01 and OH-14 are realistically capable of flipping this decade in a Blue Wave, but both more Republican than their predecessors.
- Chose not to create a new swing/GOP seat in Mahoning Valley because it wouldn't be safe for GOP, and unsure whether trends there will continue.


Although there is a risk to creating a swing seat in the Mahoning, the Toledo seat can easily be made swing or 2 GOP leaning ones(quite heavily)

Also district 1 and 2 split Cincinatti so not allowed, The only way to keep Cinci in a GOP leaning district is take West Hamilton then immediatly go East to the mega GOP rural counties.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #129 on: May 07, 2020, 07:05:48 AM »

FTR, here is the text of the restrictions. It does appear that Chabot is not instantly DOA, I miss-remembered the county provisions, however his survival would be a surprise. Ohio passed this thing to keep redistricting reformers sated while keeping power in the hands of the GOP, so not throwing that community some sort of bone would defeat the laws purpose and precipitate true reform.
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1.   Plans must comply with relevant provisions of the Ohio Constitution, U.S. Constitution, and federal law.

2.   Districts shall be compact. (This requirement does not apply to plans passed by the legislature with less than 60-percent or less than one-third support from each party. In that case, the legislature shall attempt to draw compact districts.)

3.   Districts must be contiguous.

4.   For a county with a population greater than one congressional district:

a.   If the county contains a municipality/township with a population greater than one congressional district, then map drawers shall attempt to include a significant portion of the municipality/township in a single district. The district drawer may include in that district other municipalities/townships located in the county, whose residents have similar interests as residents in the first municipality/township.

b.   If the county contains a municipality/township with a population over 100,000 but less than one congressional district, then that municipality/township cannot be split.

c.   If the county contains more than one such municipality/township, then only the largest one cannot be split.

5.   65 counties must be kept whole, 18 counties may be split once, and 5 counties may be split twice.

6.   A district cannot include two parts of a county that are not contiguous within that county.

7.   The same two districts cannot split the same two counties between them, except for counties with over 400,000 people.

8.   Map drawers must attempt to include at least one whole county in each district. This does not apply to a district contained entirely within one county or that, to comply with federal law, cannot include a whole county.

Rules Applying to Plans Passed by Simple Majority

If the redistricting plan is passed by simple majority under Step Three, the plan must adhere to these additional requirements:

1.   The plan cannot not unduly (dis)favor a political party or its incumbents.

2.   The plan may not unduly split governmental units, giving preference to keeping whole (in this order) counties, townships, and municipalities.

3.   The legislature must attempt to draw compact districts.


Realistic GOP gerrymander 2021:
- 11 Safe GOP seats to 4 Safe Dem seats. Only OH-01 and OH-14 are realistically capable of flipping this decade in a Blue Wave, but both more Republican than their predecessors.
- Chose not to create a new swing/GOP seat in Mahoning Valley because it wouldn't be safe for GOP, and unsure whether trends there will continue.


Although there is a risk to creating a swing seat in the Mahoning, the Toledo seat can easily be made swing or 2 GOP leaning ones(quite heavily)

Also district 1 and 2 split Cincinatti so not allowed, The only way to keep Cinci in a GOP leaning district is take West Hamilton then immediatly go East to the mega GOP rural counties.

I can't tell from here but it also looks like he broke the parallel cut rules everywhere, possibly the disconnected cuts rule in Cleveland and Colombus, possibly the whole county rule in CD9 and 13, possibly the municipality rule in Akron and Toledo, and possibly the total county cuts - but this one is unlikely. I wonder if he even knows Ohio's rules of the road.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #130 on: May 07, 2020, 10:27:26 AM »

Yeah, if that OH-11 goes into Summit county that's not allowed either.   Districts need to be entirely within 1 county or contain 1 whole county, one of the two.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #131 on: June 11, 2020, 09:25:37 AM »

Here's a completely legal, minimal county split plan with mostly reasonable shapes that has 13 districts at a positive GOP PVI. 



Safe D: Cleveland (D+29, 48% black), Columbus (D+21)

Tossup: Toledo+NW (R+0.02), Akron (orange, R+0.18)

Tilt/Lean R: Youngstown/Canton (light green, R+4.25), western Cleveland suburbs (R+3.43), Cincinnati+eastern counties (blue, R+3.86), NE Ohio (R+3.96)

Likely R: Dayton (purple, R+6.85), north central (light blue, R+7.48)

Safe or Safe-ish: Cincinnati burbs (green, R+9), Columbus northern burbs (periwinkle, R+11), Columbus southern burbs (yellow, R+10.5), west central Ohio (pink,  R+19.5), southeast Ohio (teal, R+12.6)

Only issue is that some GOP incumbents are probably double bunked. 
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Badger
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« Reply #132 on: June 11, 2020, 11:45:58 AM »

Reminder that OH redistricting reform forbids cutting counties more than once unless they are the largest five - in which case they can be cut twice. You are also required to base a district out of those cities large enough to dominate said district (Columbus and Cleveland) and any county between 95% and 105% of a district needs to have a seat based in it (Cincinnati). I also think there are restrictions/bans on parallel cuts (two districts cutting two same counties), but the text is ambiguous in regards to them. There is also minor provisions regarding large locales and how they can't be cut if they are of a significant size, and how one should make an effort to keep them with their surroundings.

The reform is rather strict in it's guidelines, but is lax as far as the gerrymanders observe said guidelines.

That rule, along with the exception to splitting cities applying to only Cleveland and Cincinnati, sounds to me like some real packing and cracking garbage, with emphasis on the former.

Trust me, I know how Ohio Republicans think, and they are is every bit ruthless and shamefaced as their counterparts in North Carolina and Texas about blatant gerrymandering and thinking of any way they can get away with it to maximize their power.

I assure you that the mathematical equation prohibiting splitting cities of over 100,000 unless they're County can support multiple congressional districts is by no means coincidental, as opposed to explicitly planned when the language of this proposal was drafted.

Being able to pass a map with a simple majority was very much explicitly planned as well.

I'd say it's like 95% chance a 4 year map is what ends up getting passed next year, probably with only Republican votes.
Wouldn't it be 85-90%? . If D's flip the Ohio Supreme Court I can't see R's being as stupid as PA R's and not atleast drawing a reasonable map.

Democrats are very unlikely to flip the Supreme Court. And if they do I suspect Republicans would simply try to Bunker down with procedural roadblocks and delays to give them time to flip it back.
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Badger
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« Reply #133 on: June 11, 2020, 11:47:53 AM »

Everything about this 'reform' was planned. The GOP's problem is that unless they produce something 'reasonable,' the law would be sidelined in favor of true redistricting reform via a new ballot initiative. 

I can tell you first-hand that is true. Then Senate Majority Leader Keith Faber, now state auditor, explicitly said so in a speech he gave at a Republican County dinner I went to a few years ago. I think I ground a quarter inch of a enamel off my teeth keeping silent.
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Badger
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« Reply #134 on: June 11, 2020, 11:48:33 AM »

A four-year map only happens if the first three rounds to fail. Isn’t it more likely the GOP draws a slightly less favorable map than the current one for 10 years?

Why would a 4 year map be bad for the GOP?
I guess there is the slight risk of losing two statewide races(governor + auditor) and then the D's can gerrymander to a degree back but its unlikely and 4 year maps are also good in the sense that they now a legal excuse to do a Delaymander to fix any possible "trends" such as swing backs in the Mahoning Valley or further trends in Columbus.

Why they passed this so-called reform.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #135 on: June 11, 2020, 11:53:53 AM »

Reminder that OH redistricting reform forbids cutting counties more than once unless they are the largest five - in which case they can be cut twice. You are also required to base a district out of those cities large enough to dominate said district (Columbus and Cleveland) and any county between 95% and 105% of a district needs to have a seat based in it (Cincinnati). I also think there are restrictions/bans on parallel cuts (two districts cutting two same counties), but the text is ambiguous in regards to them. There is also minor provisions regarding large locales and how they can't be cut if they are of a significant size, and how one should make an effort to keep them with their surroundings.

The reform is rather strict in it's guidelines, but is lax as far as the gerrymanders observe said guidelines.

That rule, along with the exception to splitting cities applying to only Cleveland and Cincinnati, sounds to me like some real packing and cracking garbage, with emphasis on the former.

Trust me, I know how Ohio Republicans think, and they are is every bit ruthless and shamefaced as their counterparts in North Carolina and Texas about blatant gerrymandering and thinking of any way they can get away with it to maximize their power.

I assure you that the mathematical equation prohibiting splitting cities of over 100,000 unless they're County can support multiple congressional districts is by no means coincidental, as opposed to explicitly planned when the language of this proposal was drafted.

Being able to pass a map with a simple majority was very much explicitly planned as well.

I'd say it's like 95% chance a 4 year map is what ends up getting passed next year, probably with only Republican votes.
Wouldn't it be 85-90%? . If D's flip the Ohio Supreme Court I can't see R's being as stupid as PA R's and not atleast drawing a reasonable map.

Democrats are very unlikely to flip the Supreme Court. And if they do I suspect Republicans would simply try to Bunker down with procedural roadblocks and delays to give them time to flip it back.

FWIW the Ohio supreme court actually has jurisdiction of the maps in Ohio(unlike NC and PA lol where the judges just made up some random stuff), and the court couldnt flip back until 2024.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #136 on: June 12, 2020, 01:20:30 PM »

Reminder that OH redistricting reform forbids cutting counties more than once unless they are the largest five - in which case they can be cut twice. You are also required to base a district out of those cities large enough to dominate said district (Columbus and Cleveland) and any county between 95% and 105% of a district needs to have a seat based in it (Cincinnati). I also think there are restrictions/bans on parallel cuts (two districts cutting two same counties), but the text is ambiguous in regards to them. There is also minor provisions regarding large locales and how they can't be cut if they are of a significant size, and how one should make an effort to keep them with their surroundings.

The reform is rather strict in it's guidelines, but is lax as far as the gerrymanders observe said guidelines.

That rule, along with the exception to splitting cities applying to only Cleveland and Cincinnati, sounds to me like some real packing and cracking garbage, with emphasis on the former.

Trust me, I know how Ohio Republicans think, and they are is every bit ruthless and shamefaced as their counterparts in North Carolina and Texas about blatant gerrymandering and thinking of any way they can get away with it to maximize their power.

I assure you that the mathematical equation prohibiting splitting cities of over 100,000 unless they're County can support multiple congressional districts is by no means coincidental, as opposed to explicitly planned when the language of this proposal was drafted.

Being able to pass a map with a simple majority was very much explicitly planned as well.

I'd say it's like 95% chance a 4 year map is what ends up getting passed next year, probably with only Republican votes.
Wouldn't it be 85-90%? . If D's flip the Ohio Supreme Court I can't see R's being as stupid as PA R's and not atleast drawing a reasonable map.

Democrats are very unlikely to flip the Supreme Court. And if they do I suspect Republicans would simply try to Bunker down with procedural roadblocks and delays to give them time to flip it back.

How do you figure?  Brunner's a strong candidate running against (IIRC) a pretty weak incumbent.  The other race is a coin-flip, but I think we've got a really strong recruit there too.  I'd argue we're no worse than even money unless I missed something.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #137 on: June 12, 2020, 02:53:25 PM »

Here's a completely legal, minimal county split plan with mostly reasonable shapes that has 13 districts at a positive GOP PVI. 



Safe D: Cleveland (D+29, 48% black), Columbus (D+21)

Tossup: Toledo+NW (R+0.02), Akron (orange, R+0.18)

Tilt/Lean R: Youngstown/Canton (light green, R+4.25), western Cleveland suburbs (R+3.43), Cincinnati+eastern counties (blue, R+3.86), NE Ohio (R+3.96)

Likely R: Dayton (purple, R+6.85), north central (light blue, R+7.48)

Safe or Safe-ish: Cincinnati burbs (green, R+9), Columbus northern burbs (periwinkle, R+11), Columbus southern burbs (yellow, R+10.5), west central Ohio (pink,  R+19.5), southeast Ohio (teal, R+12.6)

Only issue is that some GOP incumbents are probably double bunked. 

Probably not major, but Franklin county can only be split twice and you have three splits in this map.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #138 on: June 13, 2020, 01:58:42 PM »

Good point.  I cleaned things up a little; the Dayton district, the Cincy district, and the yellow district all move a hair left but still in the same categories. 

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #139 on: June 13, 2020, 05:10:33 PM »

Here's a completely legal, minimal county split plan with mostly reasonable shapes that has 13 districts at a positive GOP PVI. 



Safe D: Cleveland (D+29, 48% black), Columbus (D+21)

Tossup: Toledo+NW (R+0.02), Akron (orange, R+0.18)

Tilt/Lean R: Youngstown/Canton (light green, R+4.25), western Cleveland suburbs (R+3.43), Cincinnati+eastern counties (blue, R+3.86), NE Ohio (R+3.96)

Likely R: Dayton (purple, R+6.85), north central (light blue, R+7.48)

Safe or Safe-ish: Cincinnati burbs (green, R+9), Columbus northern burbs (periwinkle, R+11), Columbus southern burbs (yellow, R+10.5), west central Ohio (pink,  R+19.5), southeast Ohio (teal, R+12.6)

Only issue is that some GOP incumbents are probably double bunked. 

Hamilton county is unnecessarily split.  A whole district can fit within that county.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #140 on: June 13, 2020, 05:39:45 PM »

Here's a completely legal, minimal county split plan with mostly reasonable shapes that has 13 districts at a positive GOP PVI. 



Safe D: Cleveland (D+29, 48% black), Columbus (D+21)

Tossup: Toledo+NW (R+0.02), Akron (orange, R+0.18)

Tilt/Lean R: Youngstown/Canton (light green, R+4.25), western Cleveland suburbs (R+3.43), Cincinnati+eastern counties (blue, R+3.86), NE Ohio (R+3.96)

Likely R: Dayton (purple, R+6.85), north central (light blue, R+7.48)

Safe or Safe-ish: Cincinnati burbs (green, R+9), Columbus northern burbs (periwinkle, R+11), Columbus southern burbs (yellow, R+10.5), west central Ohio (pink,  R+19.5), southeast Ohio (teal, R+12.6)

Only issue is that some GOP incumbents are probably double bunked. 

Hamilton county is unnecessarily split.  A whole district can fit within that county.

Its a GOP gerrymander
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #141 on: June 13, 2020, 05:51:54 PM »

Here's a completely legal, minimal county split plan with mostly reasonable shapes that has 13 districts at a positive GOP PVI. 



Safe D: Cleveland (D+29, 48% black), Columbus (D+21)

Tossup: Toledo+NW (R+0.02), Akron (orange, R+0.18)

Tilt/Lean R: Youngstown/Canton (light green, R+4.25), western Cleveland suburbs (R+3.43), Cincinnati+eastern counties (blue, R+3.86), NE Ohio (R+3.96)

Likely R: Dayton (purple, R+6.85), north central (light blue, R+7.48)

Safe or Safe-ish: Cincinnati burbs (green, R+9), Columbus northern burbs (periwinkle, R+11), Columbus southern burbs (yellow, R+10.5), west central Ohio (pink,  R+19.5), southeast Ohio (teal, R+12.6)

Only issue is that some GOP incumbents are probably double bunked. 

Hamilton county is unnecessarily split.  A whole district can fit within that county.

Its a GOP gerrymander

Don’t the new redistricting rules say that if a district can be fully within a county, it must be drawn within the county?
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #142 on: June 14, 2020, 06:55:05 AM »

No. The rules are designed to allow a GOP gerrymander, so the county-split rules quite deliberately ensure it's still permissible to split Hamilton.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #143 on: June 14, 2020, 07:32:39 AM »

Yes, I was not making efforts to be "fair" in this, it was more of an exercise in how innocuous-looking I could get a map to be and still be very GOP-favorable. 

Hamilton has to be split so "unnecessarily split" is not exactly the right phrase.  "Unnecessarily attached to other counties" perhaps. 
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lfromnj
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« Reply #144 on: June 14, 2020, 10:48:29 AM »

Hmm I wonder what they draw if the Ohio Supreme court flips, my guess is the GOP tries to bribe the Ds with a 10-5 relatively locked in map and tries to keep Kaptur and Ryan as Safe as possible to persuade the D delegation to vote yes.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #145 on: June 16, 2020, 09:05:54 AM »

Hmm I wonder what they draw if the Ohio Supreme court flips, my guess is the GOP tries to bribe the Ds with a 10-5 relatively locked in map and tries to keep Kaptur and Ryan as Safe as possible to persuade the D delegation to vote yes.

If the Ohio Supreme Court flips, I'm not sure why any Democrats would be interested in that tbh.  What leverage would you guys have in that scenario?  I mean, it's not like a court-drawn map would endanger anyone on our side except possibly Tim Ryan (and I get the sense that Democratic state legislators here care more about getting that new HamCo seat than they do about what happens to Ryan, especially since a court-drawn map would probably give us more pickup opportunities elsewhere even if he gets screwed).  

A HamCo seat bribe is more to work if the OH SC doesn't flip and the Republicans want to get certain Democratic legislators (ex: African-Americans) to support a map that somehow screws over both Ryan and Kaptur in order to give the gerrymander the appearance of bipartisan support.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #146 on: June 17, 2020, 07:50:36 AM »

Looking a bit more deeply at the language of the redistricting measure, it seems to be designed not just to allow Republicans to keep gerrymandering (eg the fact that cross-cutting is only allowed between Cuyahoga and Summit makes me think they might keep OH-11's arm into Akron) but also to make Democratic gerrymanders more difficult.

Obviously it's deeply deeply unlikely that either the Ohio House or the Senate will flip (and if they do it's probably because Biden makes big inroads in demographics Democrats bombed with in 2016, making any scheme now less than useful.) But just for the sake of argument I tried to draw a gerrymander and found that both the requirement to keep Cleveland whole and the ban on cross-cuts makes drawing Democratic districts more difficult. The former hurts because it means that OH-11 has to take in too many white Democrats in west Cleveland to take significant numbers of white Republicans in NE Ohio, the latter because it's harder to grab blue cities without also having to take their ruby-red suburbs.

This was the best I could manage:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ef954867-1844-405b-b0d4-1a7fd34a663c



9 districts have Democratic PVIs, but only two are wave-proof and three are realistically swing rather than Democratic seats. Columbus is chopped three ways and whilst OH-15 definitely takes the bulk of it, it's questionable whether you'd get away with splitting the remainder between two different seats. Undoing that probably makes OH-12 safer for Dems, but at the cost of OH-3 getting more Republican.

OH-1: D+4.28
OH-2: R+20.12
OH-3: D+2.43
OH-4: R+12.67
OH-5: R+21.07
OH-6: R+14.65
OH-7: R+13.41
OH-8: R+18.97
OH-9: D+4.45
OH-10: D+1.44
OH-11: D+25.92 (44.2% black by CVAP)
OH-12: D+1.95
OH-13: D+4.31
OH-14: D+3.05
OH-15: D+8.31 (26.2% black by CVAP)
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Nyvin
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« Reply #147 on: June 17, 2020, 09:11:48 AM »

Looking a bit more deeply at the language of the redistricting measure, it seems to be designed not just to allow Republicans to keep gerrymandering (eg the fact that cross-cutting is only allowed between Cuyahoga and Summit makes me think they might keep OH-11's arm into Akron) but also to make Democratic gerrymanders more difficult.

Obviously it's deeply deeply unlikely that either the Ohio House or the Senate will flip (and if they do it's probably because Biden makes big inroads in demographics Democrats bombed with in 2016, making any scheme now less than useful.) But just for the sake of argument I tried to draw a gerrymander and found that both the requirement to keep Cleveland whole and the ban on cross-cuts makes drawing Democratic districts more difficult. The former hurts because it means that OH-11 has to take in too many white Democrats in west Cleveland to take significant numbers of white Republicans in NE Ohio, the latter because it's harder to grab blue cities without also having to take their ruby-red suburbs.

This was the best I could manage:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ef954867-1844-405b-b0d4-1a7fd34a663c



9 districts have Democratic PVIs, but only two are wave-proof and three are realistically swing rather than Democratic seats. Columbus is chopped three ways and whilst OH-15 definitely takes the bulk of it, it's questionable whether you'd get away with splitting the remainder between two different seats. Undoing that probably makes OH-12 safer for Dems, but at the cost of OH-3 getting more Republican.

OH-1: D+4.28
OH-2: R+20.12
OH-3: D+2.43
OH-4: R+12.67
OH-5: R+21.07
OH-6: R+14.65
OH-7: R+13.41
OH-8: R+18.97
OH-9: D+4.45
OH-10: D+1.44
OH-11: D+25.92 (44.2% black by CVAP)
OH-12: D+1.95
OH-13: D+4.31
OH-14: D+3.05
OH-15: D+8.31 (26.2% black by CVAP)


Since there's no district entirely within the counties,  this map would split both Cuyahoga and Franklin three times and wouldn't be allowed (Max of 2 splits for the biggest five counties).

Also the arm into Summit from Cleaveland (current OH-11) wouldn't be allowed either.  A district needs to either be entirely within a county or contain 1 whole county.   The current OH-11 does neither.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #148 on: June 17, 2020, 11:03:47 AM »

I've tweaked the map to make sure there are districts entirely within Franklin and Cuyahoga: https://davesredistricting.org/join/ef954867-1844-405b-b0d4-1a7fd34a663c

Knock-on consequences are that OH-10 moves out to D+2.4, but at the cost of OH-9 becoming D+3.25, and both OH-12 and OH-15 become securely but not safely Democratic (D+4.2 and D+5.7). However, I'm still not sure my split of Columbus passes muster.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #149 on: June 25, 2020, 01:17:40 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2020, 01:52:12 PM by lfromnj »

Does anyone know which number seat is Ohio 16th(like 440th or what?)

If somehow Ohio manages to keep its 16th district, redistricting can be very interesting



Basically if the Columbus seats have to shrink massively that might just keep a 2nd swing seat in the region while the Cinci seat has to lose 1 or 2 titanium R rural counties which pushes its maximum possible composite number up to only +3.5 R

Not sure if his Columbus math is 100% correct about the requirements and how much Balderson's district can take in but R+1 with Dublin is probably a tossup.  So even if Ohio is a R trifecta with mostly R control over redistricting Ohio keeping a 16th district could possibly give Democrats a realistic chance at 2 more seats due to the restrictions.
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