Ohio redistricting thread

[Tekken_Guy]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

They can't use the old map anyway due to population changes, but least change is a metric even when the number of districts change, it is just less least change. A federal court would presumably use a special master or masters to draw the map.

I'm wondering if the court's conservative lean will lead to a map favorable to Republicans.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

They can't use the old map anyway due to population changes, but least change is a metric even when the number of districts change, it is just less least change. A federal court would presumably use a special master or masters to draw the map.

I'm wondering if the court's conservative lean will lead to a map favorable to Republicans.

Nope

[Tekken_Guy]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

They can't use the old map anyway due to population changes, but least change is a metric even when the number of districts change, it is just less least change. A federal court would presumably use a special master or masters to draw the map.

I'm wondering if the court's conservative lean will lead to a map favorable to Republicans.

Nope

Why not? They'd probably be sympathetic to the legislature on the "Purcell principle".

[Torie]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

No the court can't draw the map after the 1st try.

What do you mean?

The court can only take over once they strike the maps down twice not just once.

Thanks for the answer. It makes sense now.

[GALeftist]

My proposal for a fair Ohio Senate map. The 20th is Clinton-narrow Trump and probably still winnable downballot for Democrats. If Dems win that plus all the Biden seats the map is proportional.

[lfromnj]

My proposal for a fair Ohio Senate map. The 20th is Clinton-narrow Trump and probably still winnable downballot for Democrats. If Dems win that plus all the Biden seats the map is proportional.

Fair is stretching Lorain to Lakewood to make it as D as possible.

Also it is illegal.

Some basic rules.

All counties larger than a statehouse district must be kept whole unless they are larger than a state senate district where they must then be have as many districts as possible nested within so this means Hamilton has to have another R seat unless you crazily decide to gerrymander a district through Butler or Split Cincinatti. And yes I agree the county split rules are dumb, I don't have any issue with the idea of keeping Butler whole and it can reasonably defended but the rules also prevent keeping Warren and Youngstown together in any map.

Also by the court's absurd standard even your map would be illegal because too many competitve Dem districts and no competitive R seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My proposal for a fair Ohio Senate map. The 20th is Clinton-narrow Trump and probably still winnable downballot for Democrats. If Dems win that plus all the Biden seats the map is proportional.

Fair is stretching Lorain to Lakewood to make it as D as possible.

Also it is illegal.

Some basic rules.

All counties larger than a statehouse district must be kept whole unless they are larger than a state senate district where they must then be have as many districts as possible nested within so this means Hamilton has to have another R seat unless you crazily decide to gerrymander a district through Butler or Split Cincinatti. And yes I agree the county split rules are dumb, I don't have any issue with the idea of keeping Butler whole and it can reasonably defended but the rules also prevent keeping Warren and Youngstown together in any map.

Also by the court's absurd standard even your map would be illegal because too many competitve Dem districts and no competitive R seats.

It does seem as though it's unworkable to have anything close to a dogmatic definition of proportionality while also adhering to the constitutional language.
It'd be different if Ohio had Michigan-type language.

[lfromnj]

My proposal for a fair Ohio Senate map. The 20th is Clinton-narrow Trump and probably still winnable downballot for Democrats. If Dems win that plus all the Biden seats the map is proportional.

Fair is stretching Lorain to Lakewood to make it as D as possible.

Also it is illegal.

Some basic rules.

All counties larger than a statehouse district must be kept whole unless they are larger than a state senate district where they must then be have as many districts as possible nested within so this means Hamilton has to have another R seat unless you crazily decide to gerrymander a district through Butler or Split Cincinatti. And yes I agree the county split rules are dumb, I don't have any issue with the idea of keeping Butler whole and it can reasonably defended but the rules also prevent keeping Warren and Youngstown together in any map.

Also by the court's absurd standard even your map would be illegal because too many competitve Dem districts and no competitive R seats.

It does seem as though it's unworkable to have anything close to a dogmatic definition of proportionality while also adhering to the constitutional language.
It'd be different if Ohio had Michigan-type language.

Its even possible to have proportionality. The court then decided to make up an absurd standard of not including competitive seats with said proportionality which goes against mathematical principles..

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My proposal for a fair Ohio Senate map. The 20th is Clinton-narrow Trump and probably still winnable downballot for Democrats. If Dems win that plus all the Biden seats the map is proportional.

Fair is stretching Lorain to Lakewood to make it as D as possible.

Also it is illegal.

Some basic rules.

All counties larger than a statehouse district must be kept whole unless they are larger than a state senate district where they must then be have as many districts as possible nested within so this means Hamilton has to have another R seat unless you crazily decide to gerrymander a district through Butler or Split Cincinatti. And yes I agree the county split rules are dumb, I don't have any issue with the idea of keeping Butler whole and it can reasonably defended but the rules also prevent keeping Warren and Youngstown together in any map.

Also by the court's absurd standard even your map would be illegal because too many competitve Dem districts and no competitive R seats.

It does seem as though it's unworkable to have anything close to a dogmatic definition of proportionality while also adhering to the constitutional language.
It'd be different if Ohio had Michigan-type language.

Its even possible to have proportionality. The court then decided to make up an absurd standard of not including competitive seats with said proportionality which goes against mathematical principles..

Yeah, that's rather silly. The court ought to compromise on this.

[politicallefty]

Its even possible to have proportionality. The court then decided to make up an absurd standard of not including competitive seats with said proportionality which goes against mathematical principles..

To be fair, the proposed maps from the Republican majority were not reasonable. The Republicans basically wanted to count all of the bare Democratic seats as part of the Democratic share while most Republican seats were firmly on their side. The Court may have gone too far in their metric, but Republicans have not been acting in good faith at all. Hopefully, they are now, now that the Court continues to scold them and potentially find them in contempt.

[Nyvin]

It has to be pretty obvious how including competitive seats that are basically 50/50 in with seats that are defined as part of the Dem's share of seats for proportionality can be exploited like crazy for the Republican's advantage.

[lfromnj]

It has to be pretty obvious how including competitive seats that are basically 50/50 in with seats that are defined as part of the Dem's share of seats for proportionality can be exploited like crazy for the Republican's advantage.

Except that's the only way. Republicans had 20 d seats like that and the D proposal had 15 D seats like that with only 2 r seats in similar positions . There is no way to get strict PR while having strict county split rules while also having strict partisan symmetry  in a non 50/50 state. The only area where the GOP made a competitive seat from a Safe D in the senate was Dayton which should have been fixed. Everywhere else competing seats were made from both parties. Watch the livestream right now . It's literally impossible  and you can see it live.

[Nyvin]

It has to be pretty obvious how including competitive seats that are basically 50/50 in with seats that are defined as part of the Dem's share of seats for proportionality can be exploited like crazy for the Republican's advantage.

Except that's the only way. Republicans had 20 d seats like that and the D proposal had 15 D seats like that with only 2 r seats in similar positions . There is no way to get strict PR while having strict county split rules while also having strict partisan symmetry  in a non 50/50 state. The only area where the GOP made a competitive seat from a Safe D in the senate was Dayton which should have been fixed. Everywhere else competing seats were made from both parties. Watch the livestream right now . It's literally impossible  and you can see it live.

Yeah, right.  I'm sure you think only 1 Dem seat in Hamilton and 2 swing seats in Cuyahoga and Franklin are inevitable

[lfromnj]

It has to be pretty obvious how including competitive seats that are basically 50/50 in with seats that are defined as part of the Dem's share of seats for proportionality can be exploited like crazy for the Republican's advantage.

Except that's the only way. Republicans had 20 d seats like that and the D proposal had 15 D seats like that with only 2 r seats in similar positions . There is no way to get strict PR while having strict county split rules while also having strict partisan symmetry  in a non 50/50 state. The only area where the GOP made a competitive seat from a Safe D in the senate was Dayton which should have been fixed. Everywhere else competing seats were made from both parties. Watch the livestream right now . It's literally impossible  and you can see it live.

Yeah, right.  I'm sure you think only 1 Dem seat in Hamilton and 2 swing seats in Cuyahoga and Franklin are inevitable

One came from the choice of creating a cluster in 6 winnable dem seats in the ne instead of 5 by using Lake County. Franklin had the choice of 1 safe r based in the south but they made 2 competitive biden +9 seats instead. Lastly its absurd to expect the Ohio GOP to gerrymander their majority leader out in Cincinatti.

The west Cleveland should be a bit more d by like 2 to 3 points by replacing the airport area with lakewood.

Theres literally no point to these absurd demands. The mapmakers are  admitting on live camera they are gerrymandering away any mild Republican area and this will be struck down once the court flips in 23 if you read the most recent dissent . Yes the R judges are hacks on the congressional maps by refusing to even strike down Hamilton County but as Torie said literally everyone here sucks.

[lfromnj]

Here are the 2 legally allowed county clusters for NE Ohio if anyone else wants to create their own map. Other than NE Ohio the county splitting rules are fine other than Columbus exurban counties. Also yes this creates very overpopulated districts at around 4%. It also prevents a perfectly logical Youngstown/Warren district.

Also do note if one chooses to do the Summit-Cuyahoga cluster +part of Geagua, the district with the leftovers of Summit in the north after drawing an  Akron CD will have to take the leftovers of Geagua.

[lfromnj]

Ohio is getting more and more absurd. They are now splitting precincts to fix partisan balance. Everyone should know why this is absurd.

If this isn't laser eye gerrymandering I don't know what is.

[Torie]

Ohio is getting more and more absurd. They are now splitting precincts to fix partisan balance. Everyone should know why this is absurd.

If this isn't laser eye gerrymandering I don't know what is.

Michigan already did this as it sliced and diced Ann Arbor to spread out the Dem mother load.

[lfromnj]

Ohio is getting more and more absurd. They are now splitting precincts to fix partisan balance. Everyone should know why this is absurd.

If this isn't laser eye gerrymandering I don't know what is.

Michigan already did this as it sliced and diced Ann Arbor to spread out the Dem mother load.

No this is even further, this is going by precicnt splitting . Michigan merely split cities to get Joe biden to win 60% of senate seats.(before someone mentions partisan fairness i don't see how its partisan fair for Joe Biden to win 22/38 senate districts )

[Torie]

Ohio is getting more and more absurd. They are now splitting precincts to fix partisan balance. Everyone should know why this is absurd.

If this isn't laser eye gerrymandering I don't know what is.

Michigan already did this as it sliced and diced Ann Arbor to spread out the Dem mother load.

No this is even further, this is going by precicnt splitting . Michigan merely split cities to get Joe biden to win 60% of senate seats.

Must be big precincts. Not sure why the commission is going there. Just say we can't do it, you do it, throw us in jail, whatever. If you can't do it, that is why God invented federal courts to step in when state courts prove a fail. Have a nice day.

[lfromnj]

Ohio is getting more and more absurd. They are now splitting precincts to fix partisan balance. Everyone should know why this is absurd.

If this isn't laser eye gerrymandering I don't know what is.

Michigan already did this as it sliced and diced Ann Arbor to spread out the Dem mother load.

No this is even further, this is going by precicnt splitting . Michigan merely split cities to get Joe biden to win 60% of senate seats.

Must be big precincts. Not sure why the commission is going there. Just say we can't do it, you do it, throw us in jail, whatever. If you can't do it, that is why God invented federal courts to step in when state courts prove a fail. Have a nice day.

Right now some Micheal Mcdonald and  some random dude was hired to draw the maps live.

https://ohiochannel.org/live/redistricting-1

Change the link to 2 and 3 to view the individual computers.

As of this post they are currently just meeting with the commission and not drawing any maps. They are admitting right now by themselves the maps are uncompact in their own opinion. This is an instant strike down in 2023. It seems Republicans are simply using this live drawing to show the court that it is impossible to satisfy their so called demands. I'm just listening to the hearing as a podcast and just popping in once in a while. Very clarifying.

[Nyvin]

Ohio Republicans are just re-submitting the same maps that got ruled unconstitutional in February about two hours before the deadline.

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1508571656855293952

[BoiseBoy]

Ohio Republicans are just re-submitting the same maps that got ruled unconstitutional in February about two hours before the deadline.

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1508571656855293952

I feel so bad for the independent consultants that got the middle finger. Just like Utah. Sigh.

EDIT: Maps passed 4-3. The senate map is 20-13 GOP with 2020 presidential data. House map is 62-37 GOP with 2020 data.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1508616050903949316?s=20&t=HQ7APTrthI...

Here's the maps that were passed, its basically the same thing the GOP has wanted from the very start and failed to get approved.

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1508643452845711362?s=20&t=HQ7APTrthI...

And here's the expert maps which were voted down. Hiring experts just to ignore them is a real waste of state money.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any news about the Congressional front?? There was supposed to be a new lawsuit but for some reason no one seems to be following that.

[GALeftist]

Yep.

https://twitter.com/OHSupremeCourt/status/1508797052657963008