Ohio redistricting thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just calculated, the leftovers of Cuyahoga and Lorain are just barely too big to fit in a district.

I'm personally not a fan of the County splitting rule because especially in NE Ohio it creates very limited options, many of which are not even good options.

I'd personally Split Cuyahoga 3 ways to create a 45%ish black OH-11 centered around Cleveland; OH-14 takes in a few townships to the East and a Lorain based OH-07 or whatever you want to call it takes in most of the white suburbs in the West.

[politicallefty]

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

-Did Democrats even try in that seat or was Biden's margin unexpected? Republicans seem to have a really disproportionate majority in the Ohio Senate. While it could change this year, there are only three Republicans holding double-digit Biden seats (all in California and all only barely double-digits). A northern Franklin-Delaware seat could be as high as Biden by 14-15%.
-Oh, I never said Kaptur was safe. Democrats would need to gerrymander for that. I agreed with you that it would be a toss-up.
-Lorain-Cuyahoga does require another a very small split of Cuyahoga to meet the requirements of the OH Constitution (which requires all Congressional districts larger than one county to have at least one wholly-contained county). You could easily put that extra bit in either the NE district or the Akron-Canton district. I drew rest-of-Cuyahoga-Lorain in my own map and it's Biden+3.
-It looks like I was mistaken as to the Akron-Canton seat. That version is indeed about Biden+3, but the lines are kind of weird within Stark County. If you draw it more reasonably, you get up to about 4-5%, but I won't split hairs. It's probably a tough one if this year turns out to be particularly bad for Democrats, but if Democrats can't win a seat like that in a more neutral or even more Democratic year, they have much bigger problems than just one seat.
-I admit I don't know all that much about the Dayton area. You could be right if it's an open seat. The area did swing and trend Democratic in 2020. Interestingly, Democrats probably used to want to combine Montgomery with Clark. Clark seems to have swung seriously Republican in recent years. They might actually prefer Greene now. I didn't realize until just now that Biden did a few points better on the margin in Greene compared to Clark.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

Kunze would get killed

[Tekken_Guy]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

Kunze would get killed

She’d probably overperform Trump heavily, like she did in 2020.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

Kunze would get killed

She’d probably overperform Trump heavily, like she did in 2020.

Not by even remotely enough to win and that’s if she somehow managed to win the nomination

[Tekken_Guy]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

Kunze would get killed

She’d probably overperform Trump heavily, like she did in 2020.

Not by even remotely enough to win and that’s if she somehow managed to win the nomination

I feel it depends on what the district even looks like. If it takes in some of the more conservative areas in Franklin County in the southern parts of the county I can see her pulling it off. My OH-12 on my DRA is a Biden+7.8 district.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Also, concerning legislative redistricting:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1506058709285449735?s=20&t=viiILbuPR...

[politicallefty]

I'm not sure why everyone was so excited about a technical issue a few days ago. The Ohio Supreme Court retains original and exclusive jurisdiction over redistricting suits and they clearly have no appetite for unconstitutional maps. I think they're explicitly precluded from ordering their own maps for the state legislature, but I don't that's true for the Congressional map.

I feel it depends on what the district even looks like. If it takes in some of the more conservative areas in Franklin County in the southern parts of the county I can see her pulling it off. My OH-12 on my DRA is a Biden+7.8 district.

I thought we were talking about a northern Franklin-Delaware seat. That should easily be a double-digit Biden seat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

Do you have another source for it? The fact it was deleted makes me wonder if it was fake.

If that was legit, then the delay must be about to expire.

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

Do you have another source for it? The fact it was deleted makes me wonder if it was fake.

If that was legit, then the delay must be about to expire.

Here you go.

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1506024935193550860

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

Do you have another source for it? The fact it was deleted makes me wonder if it was fake.

If that was legit, then the delay must be about to expire.

Here you go.

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1506024935193550860

RRH Elections on Twitter says that this suit is only to get a new map for 2024; however the court and the plaintiffs actions would suggest otherwise. Anyone have more insight?

It seems like there’s 2 different suits from my understanding one of which is seeking immediately overturn the map while the other is for 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

Do you have another source for it? The fact it was deleted makes me wonder if it was fake.

If that was legit, then the delay must be about to expire.

Here you go.

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1506024935193550860

RRH Elections on Twitter says that this suit is only to get a new map for 2024; however the court and the plaintiffs actions would suggest otherwise. Anyone have more insight?

It seems like there’s 2 different suits from my understanding one of which is seeking immediately overturn the map while the other is for 2024.

The ACLU lawsuit is for 2024 but the other one is for 2022.

[lfromnj]

I just calculated, the leftovers of Cuyahoga and Lorain are just barely too big to fit in a district.

I'm personally not a fan of the County splitting rule because especially in NE Ohio it creates very limited options, many of which are not even good options.

I'd personally Split Cuyahoga 3 ways to create a 45%ish black OH-11 centered around Cleveland; OH-14 takes in a few townships to the East and a Lorain based OH-07 or whatever you want to call it takes in most of the white suburbs in the West.

The County splitting rule doesn't really restrict the congressional maps.   You can still split Cuyahoga 3 ways. On the other hand the legislative maps are a different scenario where the rules are super strict.

[lfromnj]

The drawers in Ohio took the whole day to draw one senate district. Poor guys are stuck in Franklin County's disaster.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

Do you have another source for it? The fact it was deleted makes me wonder if it was fake.

If that was legit, then the delay must be about to expire.

Here you go.

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1506024935193550860

RRH Elections on Twitter says that this suit is only to get a new map for 2024; however the court and the plaintiffs actions would suggest otherwise. Anyone have more insight?

It seems like there’s 2 different suits from my understanding one of which is seeking immediately overturn the map while the other is for 2024.

The ACLU lawsuit is for 2024 but the other one is for 2022.

I think it’s just RRH being way too happy on Twitter messing with me lol. Seems to think it’s a sure victory for Rs when it’s far from it

[lfromnj]

Well they finally finished Franklin.

[Torie]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

[lfromnj]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

Nope it has power unlike the legislative maps.

[Tekken_Guy]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

[lfromnj]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

No the court can't draw the map after the 1st try.

[Tekken_Guy]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

No the court can't draw the map after the 1st try.

What do you mean?

[lfromnj]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

No the court can't draw the map after the 1st try.

What do you mean?

The court can only take over once they strike the maps down twice not just once.

[Torie]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

They can't use the old map anyway due to population changes, but least change is a metric even when the number of districts change, it is just less least change. A federal court would presumably use a special master or masters to draw the map.