Ohio redistricting thread

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1504495062817787910?s=20&t=xZU0kT801a-aby...

Mind = Blown

In all seriousness, this is more of a breakthrough than the title betrays. For the past months the three GOP statewide officeholders have by all reports been passive and let the two legislative leaders do the talking and mapping. If the DeWine and the other statewide officials team up with the dems to do something like Incumbent Protection with  decent number of new Dem seats, then the map would likely be accepted.

[bagelman]

Given Pieman's claims above, DeWine has a strong motive for forcing through a map if true.

I can't believe DeWine is disfavored. Finally a Republican who is normal, appealing to conservatives while also not a total lunatic, and the right wants him out in favor of a total lunatic. The boomers can't keep getting away with this.

[Smash255]

Given Pieman's claims above, DeWine has a strong motive for forcing through a map if true.

I can't believe DeWine is disfavored. Finally a Republican who is normal, appealing to conservatives while also not a total lunatic, and the right wants him out in favor of a total lunatic. The boomers can't keep getting away with this.

This is his problem with the base.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1504495062817787910?s=20&t=xZU0kT801a-aby...

Mind = Blown

In all seriousness, this is more of a breakthrough than the title betrays. For the past months the three GOP statewide officeholders have by all reports been passive and let the two legislative leaders do the talking and mapping. If the DeWine and the other statewide officials team up with the dems to do something like Incumbent Protection with  decent number of new Dem seats, then the map would likely be accepted.

No it wouldn't.  The new map follows a 45 54 split but the court now made up a term of too many D districts are competitive despite the fact this has to be mathematically true. Even the D maps have more competitive  D seats.

[Smash255]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1504495062817787910?s=20&t=xZU0kT801a-aby...

Mind = Blown

In all seriousness, this is more of a breakthrough than the title betrays. For the past months the three GOP statewide officeholders have by all reports been passive and let the two legislative leaders do the talking and mapping. If the DeWine and the other statewide officials team up with the dems to do something like Incumbent Protection with  decent number of new Dem seats, then the map would likely be accepted.

No it wouldn't.  The new map follows a 45 54 split but the court now made up a term of too many D districts are competitive despite the fact this has to be mathematically true. Even the D maps have more competitive  D seats.

From the order it didn't seem like the courts issue wasn't that there wasn't an even split with the competitive districts.  Simply having more Democratic competitive seats may have passed.   What the court seemed to take issue with is how extreme the disparity was.     The fact that the commission made it obvious there was no intention of trying something bi-partisan, held no meetings until the last minute, etc likely didn't help either.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1504495062817787910?s=20&t=xZU0kT801a-aby...

Mind = Blown

In all seriousness, this is more of a breakthrough than the title betrays. For the past months the three GOP statewide officeholders have by all reports been passive and let the two legislative leaders do the talking and mapping. If the DeWine and the other statewide officials team up with the dems to do something like Incumbent Protection with  decent number of new Dem seats, then the map would likely be accepted.

No it wouldn't.  The new map follows a 45 54 split but the court now made up a term of too many D districts are competitive despite the fact this has to be mathematically true. Even the D maps have more competitive  D seats.

From the order it didn't seem like the courts issue wasn't that there wasn't an even split with the competitive districts.  Simply having more Democratic competitive seats may have passed.   What the court seemed to take issue with is how extreme the disparity was.     The fact that the commission made it obvious there was no intention of trying something bi-partisan, held no meetings until the last minute, etc likely didn't help either.

No they specifically said in the proportional count the competitive seats should be divided equally or not counted at all. Completely made up standard that is impossible to fulfill. In some areas like Dayton it is true they  made a competitive seat from what should have been a Likely/Safe D seat but everywhere else they only made competitive seats by making R's and D's give up equally or mostly having R's give up.

For example Columbus has 2 competitive senate seats by sacrificing a potential Safe R seat and 3 Safe D seats. Akron has a similar by sacrificing a Likely R and Safe D for 2 pure tossups.

I would like to remind people that this map has a 3% D efficiency gap.

[Torie]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

If they decided to go through with this, does the GOP have enough state Senate seats to convict?

[GALeftist]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

If they decided to go through with this, does the GOP have enough state Senate seats to convict?

They have 25/33 seats in the Senate, so they could lose no more than three votes.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

If they decided to go through with this, does the GOP have enough state Senate seats to convict?

They have 25/33 seats in the Senate, so they could lose no more than three votes.

Interesting, so it depends on whether all the Senators tow the party line (if party leaders decide to go along with it).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

If they decided to go through with this, does the GOP have enough state Senate seats to convict?

They have 25/33 seats in the Senate, so they could lose no more than three votes.

I could see many state senators here taking a lead from DeWine on this. Does he support the effort?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

If they decided to go through with this, does the GOP have enough state Senate seats to convict?

They have 25/33 seats in the Senate, so they could lose no more than three votes.

I could see many state senators here taking a lead from DeWine on this. Does he support the effort?

No, he came out against it almost immediately

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

If they decided to go through with this, does the GOP have enough state Senate seats to convict?

They have 25/33 seats in the Senate, so they could lose no more than three votes.

I could see many state senators here taking a lead from DeWine on this. Does he support the effort?

No, he came out against it almost immediately

Well, I don't see that happening now.
Hard to see the state leg impeaching the Chief Justice contrary to the Governor's wishes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1504959271456419844

Holy sh*t this is idiotic. The GOP could potentially have passed an even worse gerrymander and still gotten away with it??

Great job, people!

[Torie]

Now you know why Shakespeare wrote "kill all the lawyers." It is sh*t shows like this why I am not very impressed at all with my guild. Oh the tangled webs we weave. All too often the complex and justice do not have much nexus, because our species is flawed. I am lived it, up close and personal.

[GALeftist]

Everyone needs to chill out. I think the court just basically asked for a new suit to be filed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Everyone needs to chill out. I think the court just basically asked for a new suit to be filed.

Ye. that's what the wording indicates and if push, comes to shove, they can just push back the primary

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1505260968829403136?s=21

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1505260968829403136?s=21

If they'd just given Hamilton county a seat and left everything else the same, they probably would've gotten away with it. Now D's are likely getting that plus a second Columbus seat.

[politicallefty]

It looks like this discussion is about the state legislature maps, although I don't see why those proposals can't work for the Congressional map as well. I think the state legislature maps are where the OH Supreme Court is really pushing hard. At someone on the Republican side of the commission realizes that this back and forth with the Court is not going to go anywhere.

As for the Congressional map, the Court is not going to accept anything that doesn't have a district entirely contained within Hamilton County. They also likely want a Summit County-based district as well. (Combine it with Canton in Stark County and you have a very good COI as well.) After that, the main points of contention are where to put the remainder of Cuyahoga County, how to draw the Toledo district, and whether or how to draw a second compact district in the Columbus. A northern Franklin-Delaware County district gets you a baseline of 5 Democratic districts out of 15. Unless you do rest-of-Cuyahoga plus Lorain, any district there will probably have a decent Republican lean. Democrats can probably hold the Toledo seat so long as it moves east along the lakeshore instead of into the hyper-Republican counties to the west.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1505260968829403136?s=21

If they'd just given Hamilton county a seat and left everything else the same, they probably would've gotten away with it. Now D's are likely getting that plus a second Columbus seat.

 

[Tekken_Guy]

It looks like this discussion is about the state legislature maps, although I don't see why those proposals can't work for the Congressional map as well. I think the state legislature maps are where the OH Supreme Court is really pushing hard. At someone on the Republican side of the commission realizes that this back and forth with the Court is not going to go anywhere.

As for the Congressional map, the Court is not going to accept anything that doesn't have a district entirely contained within Hamilton County. They also likely want a Summit County-based district as well. (Combine it with Canton in Stark County and you have a very good COI as well.) After that, the main points of contention are where to put the remainder of Cuyahoga County, how to draw the Toledo district, and whether or how to draw a second compact district in the Columbus. A northern Franklin-Delaware County district gets you a baseline of 5 Democratic districts out of 15. Unless you do rest-of-Cuyahoga plus Lorain, any district there will probably have a decent Republican lean. Democrats can probably hold the Toledo seat so long as it moves east along the lakeshore instead of into the hyper-Republican counties to the west.

I think a district with all of Summit County will be highly competitive this year if it does not go into eastern Cuyahoga.

I’d feel a fair map would look like this:
OH-01: Hamilton County seat, Safe D
OH-02: Butler/Warren/Clermont seat. Chabot and Wenstrup would run here. Safe R
OH-03: Columbus seat. Beatty runs here. Safe D
OH-04: Rurals to the northwest of Columbus. Jordan runs here. Safe R
OH-05: Toledo based swing seat with both Kaptur and Latta. Toss-up
OH-06: Southeast rurals. Johnson vs. Balderson. Safe R
OH-07: Rurals to the northeast of Columbus. Gibbs runs here. Safe R
OH-08: Rurals on the western Border. Davidson runs here. Safe R
OH-09: Cleveland suburbs, with Lorain and/or Medina attached. Toss-up but would probably favor Rs.
OH-10: Dayton Seat. Turner runs here. Safe R with Turner but competitive without him.
OH-11: Cleveland seat. Brown runs here. Safe D
OH-12: Columbus burbs seat with Delaware and affluent parts of Franklin. Lean D.
OH-13: Akron/Canton seat. Toss-up
OH-14: Northwest seat with Mahoning Valley. Joyce runs here. Safe R
OH-15: Rurals south of Columbus. Technically no incumbent but Carey would run here. Safe R.

[politicallefty]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

[Tekken_Guy]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

[Tekken_Guy]

I just calculated, the leftovers of Cuyahoga and Lorain are just barely too big to fit in a district.