Ohio redistricting thread
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Author Topic: Ohio redistricting thread  (Read 88304 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1100 on: March 02, 2022, 09:00:05 PM »



Here's a hypothetical Ohio max gerrymander that still abides by redistricting rules and doesn't look horrendous.

Amazing how OH-02 is "only" Trump + 6 in this map, basically only takes in Cinci proper, and shows the extent of teh urban-rural divide. Since most of Dems Hamilton gains have been in the suburbs, it should probably be ok for the decade, and infact rurals and improvements with minorities could easily push it rightwards.
How did the rest-of-Franklin CD vote?

Trump + 8 and Trump + 12. Should hold for the decade but def the most vulnerable. Picks up the reddest and most "r shifting" WWC parts of the county.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1101 on: March 02, 2022, 10:12:46 PM »



Here's a hypothetical Ohio max gerrymander that still abides by redistricting rules and doesn't look horrendous.

Amazing how OH-02 is "only" Trump + 6 in this map, basically only takes in Cinci proper, and shows the extent of teh urban-rural divide. Since most of Dems Hamilton gains have been in the suburbs, it should probably be ok for the decade, and infact rurals and improvements with minorities could easily push it rightwards.
How did the rest-of-Franklin CD vote?

Trump + 8 and Trump + 12. Should hold for the decade but def the most vulnerable. Picks up the reddest and most "r shifting" WWC parts of the county.
Impressive, well-designed map, if I say so myself.
Have you the DRA link?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1102 on: March 02, 2022, 10:23:56 PM »



Here's a hypothetical Ohio max gerrymander that still abides by redistricting rules and doesn't look horrendous.

Amazing how OH-02 is "only" Trump + 6 in this map, basically only takes in Cinci proper, and shows the extent of teh urban-rural divide. Since most of Dems Hamilton gains have been in the suburbs, it should probably be ok for the decade, and infact rurals and improvements with minorities could easily push it rightwards.
How did the rest-of-Franklin CD vote?

Trump + 8 and Trump + 12. Should hold for the decade but def the most vulnerable. Picks up the reddest and most "r shifting" WWC parts of the county.
Impressive, well-designed map, if I say so myself.
Have you the DRA link?

Thanks!

here ya go!

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cbbb147b-787c-4bac-9316-068f87f5032a
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1103 on: March 02, 2022, 10:34:02 PM »

Thanks again for the link.
The efficiency of this gerrymander is impeccable. The median seat is only 2% to the right of the state, but Ds only exceed their total statewide vote % in 4 seats.

Here are the bias metrics.

Metric      Description
Proportional   27.38%   The simple deviation from proportionality using fractional seat shares
Efficiency gap   23.30%   The relative two-party difference in wasted votes
Gamma   23.10%   The fair difference in seats at the map-wide vote share
Seats bias   15.36%   Half the difference in seats at 50% vote share
Votes bias   2.40%   The excess votes required for half the seats
Partisan bias   9.91%   The difference in seats between the map-wide vote share and the symmetrical counterfactual share
Global symmetry   5.37%   The overall symmetry of the seats-votes curve
Partisan bias rating   31   The combined rating of seats bias & votes bias
Declination   50.11°   A geometric measure of packing & cracking
Mean–median   3.03%   The average vote share across all districts minus the median vote share
Turnout bias   -0.34%   The difference between the map-wide vote share and the average district share
Lopsided outcomes   8.87%   The relative two-party difference in excess vote shares
Proportional seats   6.89   The fractional Democratic seats for the map-wide vote share
Geographic seats   6.38   The fractional Democratic seats implied by county political geography
Geographic bias   3.40%   The bias due to county political geography
Map seats   2.78   The fractional Democratic seats for the map
Boundary bias   23.98%   The bias due to district lines

Impressive work.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1104 on: March 03, 2022, 07:09:11 PM »



Fabers proposal.  He was also the one to vote no on the most recent legislative proposal.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1105 on: March 03, 2022, 10:51:16 PM »

That map is better...

But why can't the GOP just get over the fact a court will likely not accept anything that has a Hamilton-only district?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1106 on: March 04, 2022, 09:57:31 AM »

That map is better...

But why can't the GOP just get over the fact a court will likely not accept anything that has a Hamilton-only district?

Yep.  If they did that and drew the rest of the map as they are doing, the court would likely accept it.  Time to give it up.
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Horus
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« Reply #1107 on: March 04, 2022, 01:58:17 PM »

Omg just draw a Hamilton county seat ffs, is Steve Chabot really worth all this?
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Torie
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« Reply #1108 on: March 04, 2022, 03:35:51 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2022, 04:21:47 PM by Torie »

Omg just draw a Hamilton county seat ffs, is Steve Chabot really worth all this?

One assumes that what is going on is that if the legislature passes a map, then the Pubs are stuck with it for the decade, but if a court draws it, when there is a court personnel change, the Pubs can draw the map they want soon thereafter.

But yeah it is odd, particularly when they threw in the towel on Akron, by drawing a CD with all of Summit plus the city of Canton but sans the hyper Pub parts of Stark, rather than all of Stark plus Akron but excluding a bunch of marginal territory in Summit, which is a very attractive looking CD actually, more attractive than what they drew.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1109 on: March 11, 2022, 08:29:19 AM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1110 on: March 13, 2022, 04:04:35 PM »

Here's the best map I could draw for Dems within the law and within reason. 9 and 13 are both Biden + 8 in 2020; not safe, but it's hard to make them much bluer without doing something funny with Cuyahoga.

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1111 on: March 14, 2022, 04:55:08 AM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1112 on: March 15, 2022, 11:14:43 AM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??

At this point I think everyone has lost track of where we are.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #1113 on: March 15, 2022, 11:33:02 AM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??

At this point I think everyone has lost track of where we are.

I think probably in the near future? Wasn't the GOP supposed to respond by today?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1114 on: March 15, 2022, 11:47:43 AM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??

At this point I think everyone has lost track of where we are.

The federal judge the GOP tried to get involved in the legislative process refused their appeal, at least until emergency is closer at hand. I think that is where we are at.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1115 on: March 15, 2022, 01:50:16 PM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??

At this point I think everyone has lost track of where we are.

The federal judge the GOP tried to get involved in the legislative process refused their appeal, at least until emergency is closer at hand. I think that is where we are at.

But what about the OHSC? Weren't they supposed to review the newly passed congressional map?
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Smash255
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« Reply #1116 on: March 15, 2022, 02:45:36 PM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??

At this point I think everyone has lost track of where we are.

The federal judge the GOP tried to get involved in the legislative process refused their appeal, at least until emergency is closer at hand. I think that is where we are at.

But what about the OHSC? Weren't they supposed to review the newly passed congressional map?

I thought initially that as well, but it appears unlike in North Carolina where the court had to approve the new maps, in this case the court simply required new maps to be drawn, but did not have to approve them before it takes effect.  Now, whether another lawsuit is pending or if they will rule on the current maps remains to be seen.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1117 on: March 15, 2022, 02:58:15 PM »

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??

At this point I think everyone has lost track of where we are.

The federal judge the GOP tried to get involved in the legislative process refused their appeal, at least until emergency is closer at hand. I think that is where we are at.

But what about the OHSC? Weren't they supposed to review the newly passed congressional map?

I thought initially that as well, but it appears unlike in North Carolina where the court had to approve the new maps, in this case the court simply required new maps to be drawn, but did not have to approve them before it takes effect.  Now, whether another lawsuit is pending or if they will rule on the current maps remains to be seen.

Huh, I see. Well, the process should go as quickly as possible, or else we get into a situation where the primary calendar starts being affected.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1118 on: March 16, 2022, 01:42:46 AM »

How is this supposed to work with the primary election still scheduled for May 3rd? No one even knows what district they're running for.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1119 on: March 16, 2022, 08:51:10 PM »

https://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/rod/docs/pdf/0/2022/2022-ohio-789.pdf

Legislative maps rejected 3rd time. I think the fed court said he would atleast start the case now.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #1120 on: March 16, 2022, 09:18:04 PM »

At this point the primary elections are likely delayed.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1121 on: March 16, 2022, 09:19:13 PM »

At this point the primary elections are likely delayed.
They'd likely have to be.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #1122 on: March 16, 2022, 09:21:58 PM »

Bad news for Mike DeWine.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1123 on: March 16, 2022, 09:38:48 PM »

Why?
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #1124 on: March 16, 2022, 09:41:22 PM »

Gives time for Blystone or Renacci to consolidate support. DeWine is probably going to get under 50% of the primary vote either way, but Renacci and Blystone splitting the anti-DeWine vote means none of them have a shot at the moment. Trump getting involved to try and get one out of the race is also a possibility, as he is reportedly planning to endorse a challenger to DeWine.
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