Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,169
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« on: December 29, 2019, 11:09:30 PM » |
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So under that scenario, which I view as unlikely, I think the most reasonable narrative would be that swing voters/independents broke heavily for the Democrat (probably Biden) and thus he rebuilt the blue wall. But this wasn't enough in states that would presumably shift to the Democrat as well (Arizona, Florida) because they have less swing voters, more polarized electorates, and Trump + Republicans did a very good job motivating their base voters to turn out, which was enough to withstand the generic swing of independents towards democrats in the sunbelt. But this wasn't quite enough in the midwest where they lost independents/swing voters by a healthy margin.
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