These are the 2020 results. What is the Atlas narrative of the next 4 years?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

278-260 D win, but with Trump holding above 50% in all the Sunbelt swing states and under 50% in Iowa (what all the recent Iowa polls have shown).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

These results are a totally plausible 2020 scenario by recent polling (giving most Sunbelt undecideds to Trump and most Rust Belt ones to Generic D), but they are also totally contradictory to most Atlas narratives.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

These results are a totally plausible 2020 scenario by recent polling (giving most Sunbelt undecideds to Trump and most Rust Belt ones to Generic D), but they are also totally contradictory to most Atlas narratives.

Cool story.

Yes, as we saw in 2012 vs 2016 there is no universe where one group of undecideds breaks one way and another breaks another way  . I'm not saying this map is at all gonna happen, but I am sick and tired of people who seem to lack so much self awareness they cannot realize that trends can change. If you traded stocks, you'd have lost your shirt in the first 2 days of Enron going down because you do not seem to understand the basic principle of change, but keep going Mr. Iowa.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

These results are a totally plausible 2020 scenario by recent polling (giving most Sunbelt undecideds to Trump and most Rust Belt ones to Generic D), but they are also totally contradictory to most Atlas narratives.

Cool story.

Yes, as we saw in 2012 vs 2016 there is no universe where one group of undecideds breaks one way and another breaks another way  . I'm not saying this map is at all gonna happen, but I am sick and tired of people who seem to lack so much self awareness they cannot realize that trends can change. If you traded stocks, you'd have lost your shirt in the first 2 days of Enron going down because you do not seem to understand the basic principle of change, but keep going Mr. Iowa.

Yeah, I’d definitely bet on the same group of undecideds breaking Trump's way on a night when he’s losing reelection that didn’t stick with Republicans in 2016 and 2018. I’m sure that group will deliver for Trump the same way it delivered for you in 2018, Senator Heller/Mr. Tilt R Nevada.

It's actually Safe R

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I’m not an unconditional fan of trends are everything theory, but this this map is ridiculous, how can Trump win +70% in Utah ? How can IA votes to the left of AZ ? There are no rational for that

1. Utah - whoops! Marked wrong category, I meant to go with 60%

2. All the recent IA/AZ polls have been in roughly the same place, with Trump doing better in AZ if anything

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I’m not an unconditional fan of trends are everything theory, but this this map is ridiculous, how can Trump win +70% in Utah ? How can IA votes to the left of AZ ? There are no rational for that

1. Utah - whoops! Marked wrong category, I meant to go with 60%

2. All the recent IA/AZ polls have been in roughly the same place, with Trump doing better in AZ if anything

Actually you forgot to mention that Democrats won the House Popular Vote in IA by more than in AZ and that Ducey did 9 points better than Reynolds.

I know you're being sarcastic, but the second point is actually pretty good, yeah. The House split is mainly because of Steve King. It is annoying that the exit polls didn't reach Iowa in 2018, but Trump's approval rating in AZ being +2 in 2018 is also another good indicator for him there. Now on the other hand, do you have any good numbers of your own to respond with? Or are you just going to keep sarcastically pointing out things that make my case for me?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Also, you are WAY too focused on Trump's Iowa margin having been +9 instead of the fact that he only got 51% of the vote. Ted f**king Cruz only got a 0.2% smaller percentage of the vote in Texas in 2018 than Trump got in Iowa in 2016.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Also, you are WAY too focused on Trump's Iowa margin having been +9 instead of the fact that he only got 51% of the vote. Ted f**king Cruz only got a 0.2% smaller percentage of the vote in Texas in 2018 than Trump got in Iowa in 2016.

Shh, they're allergic to facts that don't fit their narrative.

I guess Democrats going from 43.2% in 2016 to 48.3% in 2018 doesn’t matter.

No, it does. And the same thing is probably going to happen in Iowa, unless you expect Democrats to get just 42% of the vote in 2020.