Orser67
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,946
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« on: December 21, 2019, 01:27:30 PM » |
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I think it partly depends on how big the third party vote is. If it's just 1% like it was in 2004, then Trump winning >50% in the Sunbelt states wouldn't be all that shocking, but the closeness of Iowa would be fairly surprising. If it's about 5.5% like it was in 2016, then Trump winning >50% in FL and AZ would really surprise me, while I'd expect him to be in the high 40s or low 50s in IA.
But either way, a lot of people on Atlas would be really surprised about AZ voting to the right of WI.
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