These are the 2020 results. What is the Atlas narrative of the next 4 years?

[ElectionsGuy]

Also, you are WAY too focused on Trump's Iowa margin having been +9 instead of the fact that he only got 51% of the vote. Ted f**king Cruz only got a 0.2% smaller percentage of the vote in Texas in 2018 than Trump got in Iowa in 2016.

To ignore the inconvenience of high third party vote in 2016 and to just say 'this candidate only got ___ percentage" is not a good argument. There was about 8% third party vote in 2016, 5% of it went to Johnson, McMullin, and Castle (constitution), it's bogus to think the vast majority of that will go to the Democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

To ignore the inconvenience of high third party vote in 2016 and to just say 'this candidate only got ___ percentage" is not a good argument. There was about 8% third party vote in 2016, 5% of it went to Johnson, McMullin, and Castle (constitution), it's bogus to think the vast majority of that will go to the Democrats.

Not sure what #s you are referring to...

Nationally the 3rd party vote was 6.05%.
In TX the 3rd party vote was 4.78%
In IA the 3rd party vote was 7.11%

As far as how the 3rd party vote will swing in 2020, it doesn't seem that implausible that Dems may get most of it. If you simply take the 2016 results and give most of the 3rd party vote to Dems, you can get quite close to the 2018 results across a large number of states.

Your right Iowa was 7%, not 8% but that actually strengthens my point. If only 2% out of 7% is Jill Stein/write-in (and write-in isn't indicative of anything other than dissatisfaction with the process) and the others are all libertarian and right-wing then how do Democrats come up with this lopsided amount of 2016 third party voters? The reason 2018 was the way it was because Democrats turned the  out and Republicans did somewhat but disproportionately the people who sat home were the Obama/Trump types, skewing without a college degree and higher approval than Trump than the electorate that voted.