Why was 2004 so close?

[SingingAnalyst]

On the other hand

Clay County AR (53.54% Kerry 2004, 23.06% Hillary 2016)
McDowell County WV (61.67% Kerry 2004, 23.02% Hillary 2016)
Elliott County KY (69.80% Kerry 2004, 25.92% Hillary 2016)
Pike County KY (52.30% Kerry 2004, 17.35% Hillary 2016)
Floyd County KY (62.24% Kerry 2004, 24.27% Hillary 2016)
Fayette County PA (53.23% Kerry 2004, 33.17% Hillary 2016)
Washington County PA (50.14% Kerry 2004, 35.52% Hillary 2016)
Iron County WI (50.43% Kerry 2004, 36.29% Hillary 2016)
Adams County WI (52.09% Kerry 2004, 36.97% Hillary 2016)

Arenac County, MI (49.6% Kerry 2004, 30.8% Clinton 2016)
Ogemaw County, MI (48.3% Kerry 2004, 29.0% Clinton 2016)

Arenac voted Kerry by 5 votes. Both counties are areas in which suburban shopping malls and soccer teams give way to roaring rivers, canoe liveries and campsites.

[Fuzzy Bear]

On the other hand

Clay County AR (53.54% Kerry 2004, 23.06% Hillary 2016)
McDowell County WV (61.67% Kerry 2004, 23.02% Hillary 2016)
Elliott County KY (69.80% Kerry 2004, 25.92% Hillary 2016)
Pike County KY (52.30% Kerry 2004, 17.35% Hillary 2016)
Floyd County KY (62.24% Kerry 2004, 24.27% Hillary 2016)
Fayette County PA (53.23% Kerry 2004, 33.17% Hillary 2016)
Washington County PA (50.14% Kerry 2004, 35.52% Hillary 2016)
Iron County WI (50.43% Kerry 2004, 36.29% Hillary 2016)
Adams County WI (52.09% Kerry 2004, 36.97% Hillary 2016)

You'd think this would tell people something.

These ancestral Democrats were able to stop clinging to their guns and religion long enough to vote for John Kerry, of all people.

[Sir Mohamed]

It wasn't all too close when you consider all important factors. The rally around the flag mood in the post 9/11 era combined with Kerry's mediocre campaign pushed W over the top. He came into office with a weak mandate in 2001, the economy was not very strong in 2004 and Bush Admin also had little domestic policy accomplishments despite a GOP congress. 2004 was winnable for Dems if Kerry ran a better GE campaign. He came across as a technocrat who would micromanage the job as prez and picked a weak VP candidate.

[Sumner 1868]

On the other hand

Clay County AR (53.54% Kerry 2004, 23.06% Hillary 2016)
McDowell County WV (61.67% Kerry 2004, 23.02% Hillary 2016)
Elliott County KY (69.80% Kerry 2004, 25.92% Hillary 2016)
Pike County KY (52.30% Kerry 2004, 17.35% Hillary 2016)
Floyd County KY (62.24% Kerry 2004, 24.27% Hillary 2016)
Fayette County PA (53.23% Kerry 2004, 33.17% Hillary 2016)
Washington County PA (50.14% Kerry 2004, 35.52% Hillary 2016)
Iron County WI (50.43% Kerry 2004, 36.29% Hillary 2016)
Adams County WI (52.09% Kerry 2004, 36.97% Hillary 2016)

Gore and Obama performance in these counties:

Clay County AR (59.78% Gore 2000, 40.72% Obama 2008, 34.01% Obama 2012
McDowell County WV (66.34% Gore 2000, 53.34% Obama 2008, 34.08% Obama 2012)
Elliott County KY (64.05% Gore 2000, 61.03% Obama, 49.44% Obama 2012)
Pike County KY (54.59% Gore 2000, 42.07% Obama 2008, 23.89% Obama 2008)
Floyd County KY (65.53% Gore 2000, 48.09% Obama 2008, 31.79% Obama 2012)
Fayette County PA (56.84% Gore 2000, 48.95% Obama 2008, 45.16% Obama 2012)
Washington County PA (53.25% Gore 2000, 46.8% Obama 2008, 42.48% Obama 2012)
Iron County WI (46.19% Gore 2000, 55.77% Obama 2008, 49.1% Obama 2012)
Adams County WI (52.94% Gore 2000, 58.14% Obama 2008, 53.87% Obama 2012)

[NCJeff]

The Republican party had not yet switched to the protectionist politics that would help it pick up votes in the midwest.  As a result, Kerry had the advantage on economic issues that helped him win the "blue wall" and keep Ohio and Iowa close.

[Redban]

Why was 2004 so close?  Because people didn't like Bush. The hatred towards Bush didn't hit it's peak until a few years later, but the groundwork was beginning to show in 2004.


1). Bush's approval ratings had dropped big-time. It was 90% after 9/11 and stayed very high for a few years. But it was 50-50 in early 2004 and kept dropping as the year went on.

2). The Iraq War was beginning to irritate the public (they had already announced that Saddam didn't have WMDs). There were some scandals concerning the intelligence that led to the war (i.e. "the sixteen words")

3). The economy wasn't so hot, particularly compared to the 1990s boom that was still fresh in people's minds.

4). Democrats were motivated by the 2000 fiasco.


The 2.5% in the popular vote doesn't reflect how close this election really was, as Bush had raked up votes in places like NYC, Connecticut, and California. He was able to get those votes because of 9/11. There was also Reagan's death, and a video released by Bin Laden near election day. Those factors gave Bush a break and allowed him to squeak out a winner.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Katrina happened in 2005, which hurt GOP chances to keep both chambers of Congress, which they lost in 2006. Bush W had a 49 percent approval rating on the day of the election. Likewise, 2016 and 2020 will be close due to Trump is very popular with his evangelical base

[BoJack Horseman]

It wasn't just Iraq. Bush's far-right policies and personality were anathema to leftists in 2004. Even in 2000, Bush wasn't as controversial and was less right-wing.

Leftists weren't going to vote Bush anyway. In 04 the "values" voter issues probably got Bush a lot more voters than it cost. It didn't backfire until the Obama elections when the country started getting more socially liberal in the late 2000's/early 10's.

One of the remarkable things about the '04 election is the types of performances Bush got out of a lot of formerly educated, northern Republican suburban, and even some urban, counties that had been slipping away from the GOP since the late 80s and early 90s. The GOP can only dream of these kinds of numbers nowadays in these places.

Washington County, OR: 46.4% Rep (30.9% Rep 2016)

Snohomish County, WA: 45.5% Rep (36.2% Rep 2016)

Lake County, IL: 50.5% Rep (36.2% Rep in 2016)

DuPage County, IL: 54.5% Rep (38.6% Rep in 2016)

Marion County, IN: 48.7% Rep (35.3% Rep in 2016)

Hamilton County, OH: 52.5% Rep (42.5% Rep in 2016)

Franklin County, OH: 45.1% Rep (33.9% Rep in 2016)

Montgomery County, PA: 44% Rep (37.1% Rep in 2016)

Chester County, PA: 52% Rep (42.5% Rep in 2016)

Bergen County, NJ: 47.4% Rep (41.6% Rep in 2016)

Westchester County, NY: 40.3% Rep (31.2% Rep in 2016)

Fairfield County, CT: 47.3% Rep (38% Rep in 2016)

Imagine a Republican presidential candidate running a Bush-style values voter campaign and getting those types of numbers in those counties in the contemporary political era. Social conservatism went from something these college-educated urban/suburban voters either actively endorsed or at least were willing to tolerate, to utter political anathema between then and today. As you already indicated, the bottom didn't really start falling out for Republicans in these places until 2008 and the Obama years, and their local political machinery didn't start getting really decimated until the Trump era.

It very clearly didn't end up costing him too many votes in 2004, the country was simply more socially conservative back then relatively speaking and conservatives had more influence over the terms of the debate regarding social issues back then than they do now.

Now Republicans have lost touch with these places in terms of both their social and economic preferences.

I fear that after Trump if the GOP goes back to nominating Dole/Bush model candidates that the suburbanites will go back to the GOP and with the rural parts voting Republican by North Korean margins that they may have created an unbeatable coalition.

[SevenEleven]

Why was 2004 so close?  Because people didn't like Bush. The hatred towards Bush didn't hit it's peak until a few years later, but the groundwork was beginning to show in 2004.


1). Bush's approval ratings had dropped big-time. It was 90% after 9/11 and stayed very high for a few years. But it was 50-50 in early 2004 and kept dropping as the year went on.

2). The Iraq War was beginning to irritate the public (they had already announced that Saddam didn't have WMDs). There were some scandals concerning the intelligence that led to the war (i.e. "the sixteen words")

3). The economy wasn't so hot, particularly compared to the 1990s boom that was still fresh in people's minds.

4). Democrats were motivated by the 2000 fiasco.


The 2.5% in the popular vote doesn't reflect how close this election really was, as Bush had raked up votes in places like NYC, Connecticut, and California. He was able to get those votes because of 9/11. There was also Reagan's death, and a video released by Bin Laden near election day. Those factors gave Bush a break and allowed him to squeak out a winner.

2.5% was exactly how close it was. The way the country votes should matter, regardless of where those votes come from.

[Blair]

On the other hand

Clay County AR (53.54% Kerry 2004, 23.06% Hillary 2016)
McDowell County WV (61.67% Kerry 2004, 23.02% Hillary 2016)
Elliott County KY (69.80% Kerry 2004, 25.92% Hillary 2016)
Pike County KY (52.30% Kerry 2004, 17.35% Hillary 2016)
Floyd County KY (62.24% Kerry 2004, 24.27% Hillary 2016)
Fayette County PA (53.23% Kerry 2004, 33.17% Hillary 2016)
Washington County PA (50.14% Kerry 2004, 35.52% Hillary 2016)
Iron County WI (50.43% Kerry 2004, 36.29% Hillary 2016)
Adams County WI (52.09% Kerry 2004, 36.97% Hillary 2016)

You'd think this would tell people something.

These ancestral Democrats were able to stop clinging to their guns and religion long enough to vote for John Kerry, of all people.

But surely John Kerry running in 2016 on a relatively small p progressive platform would have got the exact same results as Hillary?

[Non-consecutive Two Term Floridian]

On the other hand

Clay County AR (53.54% Kerry 2004, 23.06% Hillary 2016)
McDowell County WV (61.67% Kerry 2004, 23.02% Hillary 2016)
Elliott County KY (69.80% Kerry 2004, 25.92% Hillary 2016)
Pike County KY (52.30% Kerry 2004, 17.35% Hillary 2016)
Floyd County KY (62.24% Kerry 2004, 24.27% Hillary 2016)
Fayette County PA (53.23% Kerry 2004, 33.17% Hillary 2016)
Washington County PA (50.14% Kerry 2004, 35.52% Hillary 2016)
Iron County WI (50.43% Kerry 2004, 36.29% Hillary 2016)
Adams County WI (52.09% Kerry 2004, 36.97% Hillary 2016)

You'd think this would tell people something.

These ancestral Democrats were able to stop clinging to their guns and religion long enough to vote for John Kerry, of all people.

But surely John Kerry running in 2016 on a relatively small p progressive platform would have got the exact same results as Hillary?

I think Kerry would’ve done even worse in 2016 environment

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Katrina happened in 2005, which hurt GOP chances to keep both chambers of Congress, which they lost in 2006. Bush W had a 49 percent approval rating on the day of the election. Likewise, 2016 and 2020 will be close due to Trump is very popular with his evangelical base

This

[SevenEleven]

Why was 2004 so close?  Because people didn't like Bush. The hatred towards Bush didn't hit it's peak until a few years later, but the groundwork was beginning to show in 2004.


1). Bush's approval ratings had dropped big-time. It was 90% after 9/11 and stayed very high for a few years. But it was 50-50 in early 2004 and kept dropping as the year went on.

2). The Iraq War was beginning to irritate the public (they had already announced that Saddam didn't have WMDs). There were some scandals concerning the intelligence that led to the war (i.e. "the sixteen words")

3). The economy wasn't so hot, particularly compared to the 1990s boom that was still fresh in people's minds.

4). Democrats were motivated by the 2000 fiasco.


The 2.5% in the popular vote doesn't reflect how close this election really was, as Bush had raked up votes in places like NYC, Connecticut, and California. He was able to get those votes because of 9/11. There was also Reagan's death, and a video released by Bin Laden near election day. Those factors gave Bush a break and allowed him to squeak out a winner.

2.5% was exactly how close it was. The way the country votes should matter, regardless of where those votes come from.

Except the winner is decided by the electoral college. About 110k votes gave Bush the 20 electoral votes from Ohio, which was the difference between win or lose. 110k votes in Ohio, not the 2.5% popular vote margin, was how close this election was.

Get rid of the electoral college and fptp.

Americans didn't want John Kerry, that's why he lost by 2.5%

[Lechasseur]

Because George Bush was a really weak candidate, in 2000 he basically won by the skin of his teeth despite the fact that the fundamentals were similar to 2016, popular incumbent president and an okay economy with a party going for a 3rd term. If Kerry had been a slightly stronger candidate Bush would have lost, he basically lost anyway in 2000 some would argue and was only rescued by the courts.

In 2000 the only Republican who would have probably done better was McCain.

If anything Gore should have been able to win fairly easily thanks to the state of the economy and all.

2000 and 2016 I don't think were that comparable. America was doing much better in 2000 than in 2016. It should have been more comparable to 1988 imo had Gore been a half decent candidate.

[chibul]

Because George Bush was a really weak candidate, in 2000 he basically won by the skin of his teeth despite the fact that the fundamentals were similar to 2016, popular incumbent president and an okay economy with a party going for a 3rd term. If Kerry had been a slightly stronger candidate Bush would have lost, he basically lost anyway in 2000 some would argue and was only rescued by the courts.

In 2000 the only Republican who would have probably done better was McCain.

If anything Gore should have been able to win fairly easily thanks to the state of the economy and all.

2000 and 2016 I don't think were that comparable. America was doing much better in 2000 than in 2016. It should have been more comparable to 1988 imo had Gore been a half decent candidate.

Gore would have won I think if it weren't for the Lewinsky scandal. Clinton had an impressive approval rating, however his favorability ratings sucked which allowed Bush to run on "restoring dignity to the white house" and why Gore had to pick such a sucky VP (Joe Lieberman). 

As far as 2004, I think John Kerry ran a terrible campaign. I'm still not sure if he was for the war or against the war. Kerry kind of wanted to have it both ways. Bush at this point was already starting to falter. I think if the election were held on the date that the 2002 midterms were held, Bush would have maybe pulled off an 84 Reagan/Mondale like landslide, by 2004 he was losing ground. I think Howard Dean would have been a better candidate. The "Dean Scream" is overrated, as Dean was already on his way down when that happened. I think somebody like Howard Dean that was willing to hold Bush's feet to the fire would have had more success than John Kerry where I'm still not even quite sure what his message was to this day.

[dotard]

Economy was good, the Iraq disaster hadn't unfolded all the way, and millennials could't vote en masse just yet. Though I'd argue the former two things are what made the third vote the way they do.