2016: Vice President Dick Gephardt vs. Donald Trump

[Suburbia]

After eight years of Barack Obama and Dick Gephardt as a Democratic administration, the 75-year old Gephardt runs for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. Gephardt sense the political mood of anti-trade, blue-collar angst, and runs to remind of his anti-NAFTA vote in 1993.

Republican Donald Trump runs a populist conservative campaign.

Who wins?

[538Electoral]

Going to be frank, Gephardt if he ran would be one of the few viable Democratic candidates to beat Trump. Gephardt would win most of the Rust Belt (including Iowa and Ohio by narrow margins) Trump does better in certain areas than he did in real life and wins NV and NH. Gephardt makes his home state of Missouri as well as Indiana competitive but Trump still wins narrowly in both states.

293-245

Closest states:

Nevada, 0.21%
Missouri, 0.74%
NE-02, 0.85%
Iowa, 1.26%
Ohio, 1.32% (tipping point state)
New Hampshire, 2.03%
Wisconsin, 2.84%
Indiana, 3.26%
Virginia, 3.65%
Pennsylvania, 3.81%
Colorado, 3.92%
Florida, 4.16%
Michigan, 4.23%
Maine, 4.52%
Minnesota, 4.95%