White vote by income

[Intell]

http://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/incedu5.png







- 2008

[SingingAnalyst]

Interesting. I'd like to see data and a curve of best fit for the overall population, not just whites.

I long suspected this, and I also suspect that communities, over time, evolve from (a) the poor voting Dem while the rich vote GOP, to (b) the very poor and very rich voting Dem while the middle class votes GOP. This pattern appeared in Massachusetts as long ago as 1984, with Mondale outperforming McGovern in upscale communities like Lexington, Lincoln, Newton, and Wellesley while Mondale finished well behind McGovern's percentage in working class communities like Lowell and Waltham. It appeared in Michigan in 2016. Perhaps this evolution has not yet appeared in much of the South, but if trends continue (and they usually do), it will.

[Intell]

Interesting. I'd like to see data and a curve of best fit for the overall population, not just whites.

I long suspected this, and I also suspect that communities, over time, evolve from (a) the poor voting Dem while the rich vote GOP, to (b) the very poor and very rich voting Dem while the middle class votes GOP. This pattern appeared in Massachusetts as long ago as 1984, with Mondale outperforming McGovern in upscale communities like Lexington, Lincoln, Newton, and Wellesley while Mondale finished well behind McGovern's percentage in working class communities like Lowell and Waltham. It appeared in Michigan in 2016. Perhaps this evolution has not yet appeared in much of the South, but if trends continue (and they usually do), it will.

Yeah 1984 is a very weak election to use for the argument in basically every state but MA. In 1984, Mondale was most likely close to winning the votes of the white working class while other whites were much more strongly against him.

Montgomery County, PA

64.3% Nixon
64.2% Reagan

Beaver County, PA

40.8% McGovern
62.9% Mondale


Now I think the very wealthy are in fact still a republican constituency; it is instead the upper middle class professional workers (not owners of capital) that are becoming democratic.

It's more so currently the very poor whites vote democratic, poor whites are tilt republican, the lower-upper middle classes are either strongly republican if they do not have further(college) education, tilt democratic if they have college education and strongly democratic if they have post graduate education. The upper class (very wealthiest) are lean republican while they did vote for Clinton, have remained largely republican down ballot.

While income was the biggest determiner amongst the white vote, along with unionisation these days in the past it's much more swings we are seeing are to due to education.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/

[Technocracy Timmy]

The Republican Party does best with white voters in the lower-middle class to upper income ranks that generally have some college or less and were born in the 1970’s and before. They can be electricians, plumbers, mechanics, warehouse workers, salesmen (think car dealerships), etc.

[SingingAnalyst]

The Republican Party does best with white voters in the lower-middle class to upper income ranks that generally have some college or less and were born in the 1970’s and before. They can be electricians, plumbers, mechanics, warehouse workers, salesmen (think car dealerships), etc.

This. The Democratic party (the party of Mondale) is a complete non-starter among single white men born in the 1960s or early 1970s with a college education or less.

[lfromnj]

The very wealthy now are swing voters. Look at Mission Hills Kansas and Darien CT and Bellaire/West university place Texas.
Obama lost darien by 10 in 08 but lost it by 35! in 12 but Clinton won it by 9 in 2016.
Mission hills kansas was +20 Mccain, +40 Romney but +1 clinton. Laura Kelly probably won it by 10?

Maybe the ultra wealthiest donor class might still be GOP but overall these ultra rich voters will actually depend on candidate quality and run away if the D's nominate a far left candidate. However these voters are pretty miniscule.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/millionaires-say-theyll-pick-joe-biden-over-donald-trump-in-2020.html
Millionares claimed to be +13 clinton and will be +14 Biden but will be +7 Trump against Biden. Now UMC soccer moms don't really care about Warren or Biden vs Trump but the actual elites do.

[RINO Tom]

I think it's important to realize that stereotypes also don't show up in statistics very often ... the 57-year old C-suite White guy with an MBA and lives in a suburb of Chicago is likely still a straight ticket Republican voter even though he checks all the boxes for the type of person who might be drifting away from the party ... what's happening is the people who work the jobs just underneath his no longer feel any pressure to be a Republican at all, possibly even pressure not to be.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The education gap really is more of an age gap than anything

[lfromnj]

The education gap really is more of an age gap than anything

Yeah its not just by income but also by education , rich white buisuness owners who aren't educated still vote GOP. Infact they swung R. See the south shore of staten island, Monroe county IL or Putnam county NY.

[H. Ross Peron]

The Republican Party does best with white voters in the lower-middle class to upper income ranks that generally have some college or less and were born in the 1970’s and before. They can be electricians, plumbers, mechanics, warehouse workers, salesmen (think car dealerships), etc.

This. The Democratic party (the party of Mondale) is a complete non-starter among single white men born in the 1960s or early 1970s with a college education or less.

Why just single white men? Seems like their married counterparts would be just as if not more Republican.

[Non Swing Voter]

Interesting. I'd like to see data and a curve of best fit for the overall population, not just whites.

I long suspected this, and I also suspect that communities, over time, evolve from (a) the poor voting Dem while the rich vote GOP, to (b) the very poor and very rich voting Dem while the middle class votes GOP. This pattern appeared in Massachusetts as long ago as 1984, with Mondale outperforming McGovern in upscale communities like Lexington, Lincoln, Newton, and Wellesley while Mondale finished well behind McGovern's percentage in working class communities like Lowell and Waltham. It appeared in Michigan in 2016. Perhaps this evolution has not yet appeared in much of the South, but if trends continue (and they usually do), it will.

Yeah 1984 is a very weak election to use for the argument in basically every state but MA. In 1984, Mondale was most likely close to winning the votes of the white working class while other whites were much more strongly against him.

Montgomery County, PA

64.3% Nixon
64.2% Reagan

Beaver County, PA

40.8% McGovern
62.9% Mondale


Now I think the very wealthy are in fact still a republican constituency; it is instead the upper middle class professional workers (not owners of capital) that are becoming democratic.

It's more so currently the very poor whites vote democratic, poor whites are tilt republican, the lower-upper middle classes are either strongly republican if they do not have further(college) education, tilt democratic if they have college education and strongly democratic if they have post graduate education. The upper class (very wealthiest) are lean republican while they did vote for Clinton, have remained largely republican down ballot.

While income was the biggest determiner amongst the white vote, along with unionisation these days in the past it's much more swings we are seeing are to due to education.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/

and this is why the awful socialist policies people like you promote are toxic to swing voters.  good thing mainstream democrats don't support them or Trump would be getting 60% of the vote.