When will Russia annex Belarus?

[Woody]

It's only a matter of time really.

[Omega21]

They probably wouldn't need to annex them lol

With the right incentives, they would probably want to become some kind of autonomous region.

Edit: Same with the Crimea. If self-proclamation was an option, Russia wouldn't need to invade, they would easily manage to get 70+% of votes for reunification in a referendum.

[kelestian]

Who knows. Definitely not while Lukashenko is alive.
And i have suspicion that after Lukashenko Belarus will become more pro-western; not to degree of Ukraine (there will be huge problems with construction of national not-friendly-towards-russia identity), but to some degree

[PSOL]

I highly doubt the Belarusian autocrats are going to risk being sidelined by joining Russia. What incentive do they have? On a forceful invasion, now is not the time for any high risk moves by Russia, especially with the drawdown in Ukraine.

[Kingpoleon]

Never. Lukashenko has nearly sidelined Russia as much as the West, but Putin knows better than to invade.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Belarus is more useful to Russia if it remains independent.

[brucejoel99]

Russia won't invade Belarus because it's unnecessary; they have nothing Russia wants, so Russia has nothing to gain from annexing a state that's already basically an independent province of Russia anyway.

And regardless, it's definitely not happening so long as Lukashenko is alive.

[Strudelcutie4427]

It’d make more sense for them to annex Kazakhstan

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Apparently, Russia and Belarus have been negotiating a annexation treaty since 2005 or so. The Belorussian dictator has been reluctant recently, as he would lose his power base, and become a mere provincial leader under Putin.

[kelestian]

Apparently, Russia and Belarus have been negotiating a annexation treaty since 2005 or so. The Belorussian dictator has been reluctant recently, as he would lose his power base, and become a mere provincial leader under Putin.

Not really. There are talks about economic integration (for example, unification of taxes)

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Apparently, Russia and Belarus have been negotiating a annexation treaty since 2005 or so. The Belorussian dictator has been reluctant recently, as he would lose his power base, and become a mere provincial leader under Putin.

Not really. There are talks about economic integration (for example, unification of taxes)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State

[kelestian]

Apparently, Russia and Belarus have been negotiating a annexation treaty since 2005 or so. The Belorussian dictator has been reluctant recently, as he would lose his power base, and become a mere provincial leader under Putin.

Not really. There are talks about economic integration (for example, unification of taxes)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State

This structure was created in 1996, 23 years ago. Lukashenko saw possibility to become head of Union State, as Yeltsin was unpopular and Lukashenko very popular in Russia.
Now it's about economic integration and military alliance, there haven't  been any signs of unification since probably 2000-2001

[Nhoj]

Having puppets in the UN is more useful so never formally.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though of course Ukraine and Belarus had "votes" in that prior to 1991.

[TML]

Nikogda.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2019/12/21/7104510/

Apparently there was planned manifestation in support of the union, but in the end noone attended (only journalists).

[jaymichaud]

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/12/24/world/europe/ap-eu-belarus-russia.html

"Forceful merger" sends me, idk why.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/12/24/world/europe/ap-eu-belarus-russia.html

"Forceful merger" sends me, idk why.

Belarus & Russia signed the agreement creating the Union State nearly 25 years ago now, & nothing much has ever come of it. Lukashenko is never gonna relinquish power in Belarus so long as he's alive & everybody knows that. The current quibbling is about oil rates & niggling trade disputes that have always cropped up from time to time.

And Russia is not gonna invade Belarus. Belarus is one of their closest allies, & Belarusians appreciate Russia for allowing them visa-free travel & work inside Russia (Belarus doesn't have a market economy so this is a critical economic lifeline) & the free educations that Belarusians are granted at Russian universities.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/12/24/world/europe/ap-eu-belarus-russia.html

"Forceful merger" sends me, idk why.

Belarus & Russia signed the agreement creating the Union State nearly 25 years ago now, & nothing much has ever come of it. Lukashenko is never gonna relinquish power in Belarus so long as he's alive & everybody knows that. The current quibbling is about oil rates & niggling trade disputes that have always cropped up from time to time.

And Russia is not gonna invade Belarus. Belarus is one of their closest allies, & Belarusians appreciate Russia for allowing them visa-free travel & work inside Russia (Belarus doesn't have a market economy so this is a critical economic lifeline) & the free educations that Belarusians are granted at Russian universities.

Lukashenko is in the worst position he's been in, although he's still trying to rig the election. And he has COVID-19. And Putin could probably use a win.

Should the West Be Worried About Belarus?

One can anticipate the announcement of the official results of the rigged August 9 presidential elections triggering a wave of protest, which the Kremlin could exploit and augment if it were prepared and inclined to do so. In Ukraine in 2014, the hapless Yanukovych had even helped lay the groundwork for his country’s dismemberment. Too busy lining his own pockets to pay much attention to tertiary considerations like national security, Yanukovych had allowed Russia over the years to honeycomb the Ukrainian military and special services with its agents, crippling Ukraine’s ability to counter Russia’s bold moves during the “Russian spring” of 2014. By all accounts, Lukashenka runs a much tighter ship than the Ukrainian ex-autocrat, so any Kremlin-orchestrated attempt to create a “Russian summer” in Belarus would have to weigh carefully the possibilities for peeling off local elites or subverting the military and security forces. As in Ukraine in 2014, Russia has troops on the ground already, and it would not be difficult to slip additional forces into the country across a largely open land border. The massive snap military exercises that Putin ordered last week might have nothing to do with Belarus—but they sure would make a nice cover to preposition troops and materiel for possible deployment there. Regarding the attitude of the local populace, the Belarusian reputation for passivity and Russophilia would give the Kremlin grounds for optimism—but could also lead to serious miscalculation, as with Novorossiya.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Trump wins reelection, Putin's more likely to slice off half of Poland or something.

[jaymichaud]

Not in Lukashenko’s lifetime.

[CumbrianLefty]

To be more precise, Luka has said he has had the virus - despite never displaying any symptoms.

Hmmm.......

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

It’d make more sense for them to annex Kazakhstan

Without knowing too much about how the Russian military is deployed, I imagine force projection out there would be a nightmare given available transport infrastructure and low population density. Moreover it would severely alienate not only every CA government, but China as well, which as I recall was very much against the Georgian War, has in the modern era deployed a lexicon that focuses on national sovereignty as a primary principle, and probably has not insignificant material investments in Kazakhstan. Additionally, Nazarbayev for years successfully managed to keep relations between ethnic Russians and Kazakhs (so far as I am aware) rather pacific, so the cassus belli seems lacking sans a Kazakh Spring. This is not to say that annexing Belarus would be a smart move either--extending the NATO border sounds like idiocy.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If Trump wins reelection, Putin's more likely to slice off half of Poland or something.

No.

[Woody]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/01/op-ed-keep-your-eyes-on-russia-for-an-august-surprise-of-putins-making.html

Greater opportunity for Putin presents itself in a United States that’s distracted by the coronavirus spread, its own economic downturn, racial upheavals, polarizing November elections and divisions with and within Europe. With the chance that his friend President Donald Trump might lose the November election, Putin could calculate that now could be the time to seize new opportunities.

On that front, the first indicator could be Russian response to the Belarus election a week from Sunday on Aug. 9. Janusz Bugajksi of the Center for European Policy Analysis reckons that Putin could use “the pretext of growing unrest in Belarus and the disputed presidential elections” as a chance to act as national liberator with the “looming prospect” of the absorption of Belarus into Russia.

Following the arrest this week of 32 Russians at a sanatorium near Minsk, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko accused the Kremlin-linked Wagner military contractor of sending 200 of its mercenaries to destabilize his country ahead of his election, where he faces a challenge from three opposition groups