1988 : George H. W. Bush vs Dick Gephardt

[UWS]

What if Chair of the House Democratic Caucus Dick Gephardt somehow won the Democratic nomination and faced Vice-President George H. W. Bush in the general election after being labeled as a flip-flopper by his fellow Democratic rivals during the primaries (especially on abortion, on defense, on Reaganomics, etc.)?

Who would win?

[brucejoel99]

I think it'd be much closer (Gephardt would amost certainly avoid the debate gaffes that Dukakis suffered, for example), but unless the economy takes a turn for the worse or Iran-Contra somehow becomes Watergate 2.0, Bush would still win.

[😥]

Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO)/Sen. Al Gore (D-TN) 270 EVs; 49.2% PV
VP George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Sen. Dan Quayle (R-IN) 268 EVs; 49.1% PV


Gephardt and Gore was only two Democrats who would beat Bush in 1988

[Sir Mohamed]

It would have been much closer, but I'm uncertain whether Gephardt would have pulled it off. OH is the tipping point.

✓ Vice President George Bush (R-TX)/Senator Dan "Potatoe" Quayle (R-IN): 281 EVs.; 50.3%
Represenative Dick Gephardt (D-MO)/Governor Michael Dukakis (D-MA): 257 EVs.; 47.7%

[SingingAnalyst]

Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO)/Sen. Al Gore (D-TN) 270 EVs; 49.2% PV
VP George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Sen. Dan Quayle (R-IN) 268 EVs; 49.1% PV


Gephardt and Gore was only two Democrats who would beat Bush in 1988

Somehow, that map is both ugly and beautiful at the same time. Presumably, there would be no faithless Dem electors as IRL.

[Sumner 1868]

Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO)/Sen. Al Gore (D-TN) 270 EVs; 49.2% PV
VP George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Sen. Dan Quayle (R-IN) 268 EVs; 49.1% PV


Gephardt and Gore was only two Democrats who would beat Bush in 1988

I think Gephardt would win Vermont. Even Dukakis mustered 47.58% there.

[President Johnson]

Gephardt narrowly wins. 1988 was a winnable election for the Democrats if the picked the right candidate and ran a strong campaign. The Southerners would have done better mostly, maybe except for Mario Cuomo.

✓ Representative Richard Gephardt (D-MO)/Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 289 EV. (50.24%)
Vice President George H. W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 249 EV. (48.01%)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gephardt, easily and if Gephardt would of been Veep in 2004, Kerry would of won Ohio

[538Electoral]

304-234

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

It's hard to say.  I'd have voted for Gephardt, but he was caught "transitioning" during 1988. 

When Gephardt came to Congress in 1977, he was a moderate, centrist Democrat in the image of Jimmy Carter, but by 1988, he had moved to the left, likely due to wanting to be part of the Democratic Leadership and partly due to his desire to run for President.



Gephardt is one of my favorite Democrats, but he was considered to be a guy who too easily switched positions in 1988.  He would have been a stronger candidate against Bush in 2004, and he would have been a better VP pick than Edwards in hindsight.