SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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Posts: 3,639
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« on: December 17, 2019, 03:00:36 AM » |
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The three most "hardcore" Confederate states in their voting patterns, they have been among the most inelastic in Presidential elections since 1980. I can see one of a few different things happening after the next 2-3 election cycles:
1. Continued inelasticity and GOP domination, as conservative, religious white voters in these states continue to dominate (in the absence of a Roy Moore-type oddity);
2. Growth in Dem consistencies as the Black share of the voting population grows (reversing many years of decline) and industry brings more Asians and other ethnic minorities into these states; or
3. A decline in conservative and religious fervor among younger whites in these states, leading to more openness to voting Democratic.
I think all three of these scenarios are about equally likely. Scenario 2 would cause SC and MS to flip first, followed (if ever) by AL. Under Scenario 3, SC would clearly be the first to flip.
Thoughts?
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