|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 30, 2020, 09:16:06 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  AL, MS, SC
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: AL, MS, SC  (Read 199 times)
mathstatman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,938
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 17, 2019, 03:00:36 am »

The three most "hardcore" Confederate states in their voting patterns, they have been among the most inelastic in Presidential elections since 1980. I can see one of a few different things happening after the next 2-3 election cycles:

1. Continued inelasticity and GOP domination, as conservative, religious white voters in these states continue to dominate (in the absence of a Roy Moore-type oddity);

2. Growth in Dem consistencies as the Black share of the voting population grows (reversing many years of decline) and industry brings more Asians and other ethnic minorities into these states; or

3. A decline in conservative and religious fervor among younger whites in these states, leading to more openness to voting Democratic.

I think all three of these scenarios are about equally likely. Scenario 2 would cause SC and MS to flip first, followed (if ever) by AL. Under Scenario 3, SC would clearly be the first to flip.

Thoughts?
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,411


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2019, 04:28:25 am »

MS will be a Dem state by 2028/2032 IMO, and the GOP won't do much to prevent it either as they will just substitute MS for another state and that would be easier than trying to win back MS. Number 3 actaully supports why MS is a way better bet that SC because I believe just as long as the Dems are able to get the GOP's share of the White Vote in MS to 75-77% they will win the state .


Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines