Could have Arizona have a reverse Arkansas in terms of political party strength.
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  Could have Arizona have a reverse Arkansas in terms of political party strength.
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Author Topic: Could have Arizona have a reverse Arkansas in terms of political party strength.  (Read 708 times)
lfromnj
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« on: December 12, 2019, 03:27:26 PM »

Obviously we won't have the insane margins in the legislature and congressional districts but im talking about the colors in this wikipedia article.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Arkansas
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Arizona
2016 vs 2008. Decent year for GOP and great year for Ds but strong swings in both states.
Rs hold everything in Arizona including legislature and all statewide positions just like Ds in 2008.
2010 and 2018 comes around. The incumbent party does manage to hold onto the legislature but very narrowly. The senate seat flips and some statewide downballot positions flip but popular governors easily hold on. In 2012 the AR legislature flipped and 2014 all statewide positions were held by the GOP.
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2019, 03:59:54 PM »

No , the Republicans already won Arkansas at the Presidential 3 straight times by 2008. I think the better comparison might be a reverse Wisconsin and I think in the 2020s Arizona will be the new Florida while Wisconsin will be the new Ohio.




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Wazza [INACTIVE]
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« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2019, 07:18:31 AM »

The dynamics in Arkansas and Arizona are completely different. Arkansas' shift towards the Republican Party was largely the result of voters abandoning the national and state Democratic Party, which is why even today it has a relatively high proportion of registered Democrats despite being a GOP stronghold. In Arizona, it is largely due to new demographics moving into the state diminishing the influence of the "Old Guard" Sunbelters.
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MarkD
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« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2019, 03:21:05 PM »

No, Arizona is just becoming a battleground state. It will stay that way for the next several elections. The rising number of Hispanic residents in Arizona is not commensurate with a rise in the number of Hispanic voters, since the new arrivals are not U.S. citizens. Voter turnout in AZ-03 and AZ-07 is much lower than the rest of the districts, and that will continue.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2019, 04:26:44 PM »

No.  If reverse Arkansas happens somewhere in the next decade it will be Texas with most of the giant suburban counties shifting 60%R->60%D over 3 or 4 cycles. 

I would have said Georgia prior to 2018, but it's clear the R floor is staying high there.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2019, 12:07:31 PM »

Yes, AZ is turning into NM
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