Dukakis's 272 strategy.

[sg0508]

CBS "the 18 state strategy".  The problem was, once OH was gone (and they mentioned this was the biggest concern early), there was practically no way to make up for those chunk of EVs if Bentsen didn't somehow help them to take TX.

[sg0508]

Ironically, and many forget this, but Dukakis came VERY close to making '88 a horse race in the Electoral College. Had he taken CA, PA, IL and MD, he was right there.

[sg0508]

Ironically, and many forget this, but Dukakis came VERY close to making '88 a horse race in the Electoral College. Had he taken CA, PA, IL and MD, he was right there.

Even PA and IL, which he came very close to winning, would have already made the race much closer than many give it credit to being. The closeness of several states is like Carter in his second election in that regard

And those were likely four "Willie Horton" states that he threw away as a result of the furlough disaster.  Maybe not CA since that was the "final gift from Reagan", but definitely the other three.

[sg0508]

Ironically, and many forget this, but Dukakis came VERY close to making '88 a horse race in the Electoral College. Had he taken CA, PA, IL and MD, he was right there.

Two big unknowns (assuming Reagan wasn't a lame duck from the state) - 1) The impact of the law & order vote in the suburbs that propelled Bush in many states 2) The "no show" effect since the race was over by the time CA was called.  Who didn't bother showing and in what #s? It's very hard to tell.

Even PA and IL, which he came very close to winning, would have already made the race much closer than many give it credit to being. The closeness of several states is like Carter in his second election in that regard

And those were likely four "Willie Horton" states that he threw away as a result of the furlough disaster.  Maybe not CA since that was the "final gift from Reagan", but definitely the other three.

Even with CA he only lost it by three points. So even with a popular incumbent, Bush barley won it. Take away Reagan, and Dukakis would have easily won it in my mind