Dukakis's 272 strategy. (user search)
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  Dukakis's 272 strategy. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Dukakis's 272 strategy.  (Read 2013 times)
538Electoral
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Posts: 2,691


« on: December 16, 2019, 05:56:21 AM »



272-266

I found an old article that explained how Dukakis planned to beat Bush in 1988.
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538Electoral
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Posts: 2,691


« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2019, 07:57:32 AM »

This was part of Dukakis's "bring home the base strategy".  It was partially successful in that he was running 17 points behind in early October 1988, and he was able to cut the margin by half.

Of course, this would have fallen far short of his 272 (he wasn't close in Ohio and Michigan), but a 2 point swing would have given him California, Illinois, Maryland, and Pennsylvania--which would have made a more respectable EV showing.

I remember that Al Franken talked about this strategy on SNL before the 1988 election.  Smart analysis from a smart man--I am sorry he is gone from the Senate.  It turned out to work brilliantly for 1992 and largely remains the Democratic key to victory today (with a few exceptions).

Dukakis would've been better off targeting CO, NM and MO than OH. Would've put him at 273.
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538Electoral
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Posts: 2,691


« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2019, 10:41:16 PM »

Dukakis would have gotten 229 if he had won the largest 5 Bush states he won by less than 5%. (CA, PA, IL, MO, MD)



From there, Michigan's 20 = 249 and Ohio's 23 = 272. Very similar to the actual strategy but trading VT and CT for MO.
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