Dukakis's 272 strategy.

[Arbitrage1980]

HW Bush 1988 outperformed in the EC compared to his national PV margin: 426 EV and 7.8% national PV margin. Obama 08 won the PV by 7.2% but got 365 EVs, as a point of comparison. This was due to Bush winning CA, IL, PA, MD, by under 4%.

Crime was one of the biggest issues of that campaign, and suburban whites in those states were terrified of Dukakis' weakness on crime. Maryland was particularly vulnerable because Willie Horton's rape during his prison furlough occurred there. Otherwise, Dukakis most certainly takes it, as the state went for Carter in 1980. The dramatic reduction of crime during the Clinton presidency was crucial in alleviating the fears of white suburban voters, allowing them to vote for Dems for President. The Left are overly harsh on Clinton and the 1994 crime bill, but without them, there would be no Obama presidency, and the Dems' electoral position would be significantly weaker.

[Arbitrage1980]

This was part of Dukakis's "bring home the base strategy".  It was partially successful in that he was running 17 points behind in early October 1988, and he was able to cut the margin by half.

Of course, this would have fallen far short of his 272 (he wasn't close in Ohio and Michigan), but a 2 point swing would have given him California, Illinois, Maryland, and Pennsylvania--which would have made a more respectable EV showing.

I remember that Al Franken talked about this strategy on SNL before the 1988 election.  Smart analysis from a smart man--I am sorry he is gone from the Senate.  It turned out to work brilliantly for 1992 and largely remains the Democratic key to victory today (with a few exceptions).

Dukakis would've been better off targeting CO, NM and MO than OH. Would've put him at 273.

Dukakis lost OH by 10.9% despite his strength with rural whites. But 1988 was the polar opposite of 2016: Dukakis did well in eastern industrial Ohio but got destroyed in Hamilton and Franklin counties, which are now solid blue. Dukakis lost OH by a larger margin than MO, MT, SD, CO.