1992 if the Cold War was still going on

[darklordoftech]

Would the Cold War still going on change the results?

[dw93]

Would the Cold War still going on change the results?

Clinton might not even be the Democratic nominee in the event that the Cold War is still happening, as I think a Senator with Foreign Policy experience would be nominated. Bush's chances are better but he is in no way guaranteed to win.

[brucejoel99]

Could go either way.

Since foreign policy would remain a big issue due to the continued Cold War, this gives Bush the advantage. If the Soviets are able to restrain Iraq from invading Kuwait, thus preventing the Gulf War, then the 1990 oil price shock would be averted & the early '90s recession would be less severe, which also helps Bush. No reduction in defense spending would mean more defense-related jobs as well. However, without the Gulf War, Bush's approval rating wouldn't skyrocket in '91, which means that several Democrats who declined to run for president in real-life 1992 (e.g., Mario Cuomo, Dick Gephardt) might end up running. And if the butterfly effects of there being a USSR that's capable of survivng could prevent Al Gore's son's 1989 accident, then Gore might run for president again in 1992 as well.

Now, most important of all: It's the economy, stupid! The real-life early '90s recession was triggered by the aforementioned oil shock from the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, but the U.S. economy was already weak due to the savings & loans crisis, the restrictive monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (which reduced inflation, but limited economic expansion), & a crash in property values & construction work due to the '80s real estate boom. A different catalyst could very well trigger a recession anyway. So, if the economy is in recession during or shortly before the '92 election, then the Democrat is likely to win.

[Adjective-Statement]

The latest the USSR could have plausibly been saved was 1985, if Romanov or Grishin won out over Gorbachev. Assuming that, we still see the Soviets introducing limited economic reforms but without glasnost. The Cold War enters a less active phase in the 1990s. The Reagan era is still seen as a success and the Gulf War still happens. Foreign policy is a little more of a concern but that's about it. Maybe enough to swing the very closest state to Bush.

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Governor Bill Clinton (D-AR) / Senator Al Gore (D-TN) ✓
Businessman Ross Perot (I-TX) / Admiral James Stockdale (I-IL)